Moving on Up

I have finally taken the steps necessary to get my own domain and will no longer be The Baseball Authority on wordpress.

I am now Baseball Mastermind.

Come along, friends.

Some Words on Baseball Prospects

I love following minor leaguers, especially the studs, because of all the promise as well as all the uncertainty and subjectivity involved in the evaluation process. I’d like to think of myself as a good talent evaluator, but I’ve been wrong on players more than a few times (SS-R Troy Tulowitzki, 3B-R Andy Marte, for different reasons in 2007). It’s part of the prospecting game.

With prospects, the numbers play a part in the evalutation process, but they don’t tell the whole story. Analysts know a lot about the game and trends within the game, but trends are not truths and when it comes to prospects, it is largely an individual-to-individual evaluation. Why did scouts like 1B-L James Loney so much despite the fact that he never performed, at any level, between advanced A ball and AAA (2002-2006)? Because he has a great swing, because he has a projectable frame and because they saw something in James Loney that said ballplayer. Hell, I still don’t know how many home runs he’ll hit in 2008 or in his peak because there’s nothing in the numbers to indicate such. A good guess might be between 10-30. I’ll take 15 in 2008 and 25 peak, but that’s just me.

An even better example is someone like SS-R Hanley Ramirez, who in two short seasons in the majors, went from confounding prospect to one of the most valuable commdities in baseball. No one saw that coming, including Boston Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein who is one of the greatest talent evaluators in the game. I’ll bet there’s a scout somewhere saying “Told ya’ so.”

The numbers can also be misleading in the opposite direction. Until a player has made it through each level of the minors and has some body of work in the major leagues, players who look promising early on (RHP Yusmeiro Petit, Jeremy Sowers), flame out because the stuff doesn’t match the performance.

On that note, there’s a great piece regarding Colorado Rockies LHP Franklin Morales by Baseball Prospectus scout Kevin Goldstein where he talks about player evaluation that I really liked. He touches on a variety of points that are often contested, such as talent vs. performance and the issue of makeup. Analysts hate words like “makeup” and “chemistry” because they cannot be quantified, but in a game that isn’t defined by entirely its trends, but also by its individuals, these things certainly can be qualified.

Here, Goldstein talks about the disparity between talent and performance in response to a letter from a fan who questions Morales’ receiving a 5-Star grade:

“I grade Morales as not only a five-star prospect, but as an upper-echelon one at that…You don’t need more than one hand to count the number of left-handers at ANY LEVEL who can match Morales on a pure stuff level, and that really does count for something…You say I have no reliable data points, I argue that scouting reports are reliable data points, and in my experience, far more reliable for evaluating prospects than raw minor league statistics. Not that pure performance isn’t important, but it’s not as important to me as scouting reports.”

And here, Goldstein emphasizes the importance of makeup:

“You emphasize “rave professionalism reviews” as if it is a bad thing–-I assume this is because it is not a specific data point. I can tell you, one thing I’ve learned from my many years of doing this, which have given me the wonderful opportunity to deal with people inside the game on a daily basis, is that MAKEUP COUNTS. It really does. Supreme talent can overcome bad makeup, but average, even good talent rarely can. You can look at old prospect lists and focus on the misses, and when you do that, for every player who just wasn’t as good as we thought, there was a player who didn’t become what he could of, or even should of, because he didn’t put in the work necessary to become a big leaguer. Baseball is a remarkably difficult game, and those who approach the game with the proper effort and yes, professionalism have a significant leg up on those who don’t, and can often pass those who are far more talented. You want to know why I was so wrong about Dustin Pedroia? It’s not because I under-evaluated his tools, I can read my report on those and they’re still very accurate. It’s because I underrated just how valuable his effort is to his overall productivity.”

This is good stuff. Why is it that a player like OF-R Elijah Dukes has failed to make it? Obviously, the talent is there, but something mentally isn’t or hasn’t been yet. Still, just like plate discipline can be learned (SS-B Jose Reyes), power can sometimes be learned (James Loney???), so too can a strong work ethic and so-called makeup. Like anything in baseball, its not easy to learn and its even harder to project.

New York Yankees Extend Cano; C.C. Sabathia Extension in the Works?

Yesterday, with RHP James Shields receiving an extension from the Tampa Bay Rays, I published “The List” of players that still have less than three years service time (or have yet to go to arbitration), but have performed at a high enough level where organizations should explore extending them long-term. Today, the New York Yankees have offered an extension to one such player, as 2B-L Robinson Cano agreed to terms on a four-year $30 million extension with two club options that could keep the second baseman in New York through 2013.

Cano, 25, has been a very productive hitter in New York since he debuted in 2005, compiling a career .314/.346/.489 line with 48 home runs in 1621 at-bats. After hitting .342 in 2006, Cano followed that campaign up with a good offensive season in 2007, hitting .306/.353./.488 with 19 home runs in 617 at-bats.

Defensively, Cano has seen steady improvement as he has learned to man the position. His range, particularly, has improved and that has been evident as he is now regarded as one of the better defenders at his positions by many in baseball. The statistics back up this improvement as well as Cano has seen improvement scoring -4, 13, then 26 fielding runs above average (FRAA) according to Baseball Prospectus and rated as the fourth best second baseman in baseball according to ESPN’s Zone rating and third in the AL in 2007. This is a solid improvement by Cano and represents a very diverse skill set for the young second baseman.

Cano will be entering his prime in the next few seasons as he learns the league and fills out physically. It was a good move for the Yankees to lock up the second baseman, securing as many as three of his free agent seasons and as long as into his age 31 season.

This off-season was a particularly weak one, as far as available free agents go and the league has adjusted very ably as teams now have explored alternative ways to procure and secure talent, with high profile trades becoming more regular along with creative contract extensions. This represents an economic savvy in baseball that was certainly missing in the 2006 off-season when teams tossed around lucrative, long-term deals to veterans and marginal players (see: Los Angeles center fielders), as if trying to will their way into contention. I really like this trend and the teams that fail to make adjustments will really suffer.

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The Cleveland Indians have reportedly offered LHP C.C. Sabathia a long-term deal, although the details have yet to be announced. If the Indians successfully extend the 2007 Cy Young Award winner, this will represent a big boost to their long-term plans as one of the American Leagues premier teams as they lack a true ace or any on the way in the farm. I like RHP Fausto Carmona alright and he also made “The List,” but I want to see another dominating season out of him and Adam Miller needs to be healthy, pitch in the bigs before he earns any real credit. If Sabathia agrees to a contract, and he seems to want to, it will likely be on the Indians and General Manager Mark Shapiro’s terms, probably no more than five-years and $73 million deal the Houston Astros signed with RHP Roy Oswalt.

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The Atlanta Braves have reached agreement with RHP Rafael Soriano on a two-year $9 million extension with $500,000 in incentives. Soriano has been a great relief pitcher dating back to his days in Seattle. His only concern is his health, but having pitched 72 innings in 2007, a two-year deal is hardly a big risk for his upside.

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Finally, I’ve already linked up to a scouting report on newly acquired Florida Marlins CF-R Cameron Maybin before from John Sickels Minor League Ball–one of my favorite sites. However, with players like Maybin who are mostly relying on tools and not skills yet, its always good to get a variety of sources and scouting reports to get a more complete picture. Kevin Goldstein, of Baseball Prospectus, reviews the Florida Marlins Top-11 prospects and rates Maybin as their lone five-star player. In the review Goldstein says:

“The Good: When it comes to tools, Maybin is Home Depot. He has outstanding size and athleticism, projecting to hit for average and power, while also being a total burner. He effortlessly covers ground in center field, and his arm is outstanding. He’s shown a solid approach at the plate, has great instincts on the base paths, and backs up his natural ability with a strong work ethic.”

I’ve been a fan of Maybin since he was drafted 10th overall in the very outfield-rich 2005 draft and am excited to see how he will hold up in 2008 as the Marlins likely starting center fielder. He is strong, very athletic and should play a solid center field but I would like to see him develop more in AAA, but the Marlins don’t seem to want to wait for that. He will have to develop his pitch recognition at the big league level.

James Shields and Locking-Up the Youngsters

The Tampa Bay Rays were unable to negotiate a longterm contract with ace LHP Scott Kazmir, but quickly moved forward, giving RHP James Shields a four-year contract extension with three separate one year club options, which could make the deal worth as much as $44 million. Shields, 26, is coming off a solid season for the Rays, pitching 215 innings with a 3.85 ERA, 184/36 K/BB ratio and a 12-8 record.

This type of move is exactly the type teams should explore, trading potentially $44 million in expense for cost certainty and retaining their young pitcher through his most productive seasons. If there is ever a time to give a player $44 million, it isn’t when RHP Carlos Silva hits the free agent market, its when a player shows enough promise to actually be worth the money. Also, giving pitchers long contracts is generally never a good idea, certainly longer than 3 years, but having three club options is unheard of and worth the risk. Like the Tulowtizki deal, this move will keep the young star past his age 30 season, when most players are on the decline. This move represents exactly the type of creativity that small market teams must use in order to build a competitive ballclub.

There are a number of young players that could also sign similar contracts and it would benefit their organizations to do so. It is key to sign player before they have enough service time under their belt to think they can strike it rich as free agents. This strategy is especially important for small market teams and teams out of contention because they are less likely to be able to replace superior talent.

Here is a complete list of players who should sign longterm contracts, if they are open to staying where they are (a big ‘if’):

• AZ: CF-R ChrisYoung
• BAL: OF-L Nick Markakis
• BOS: 2B-R Dustin Pedroia
• CLE: RHP Fausto Carmona
• COL: LHP Jeff Francis
• DET: CF-L Curtis Granderson, RHP Justin Verlander
• FL: SS-R Hanley Ramirez, RF-L Jeremy Hermida
• LAA: RHP Jered Weaver
• LAD: C-R Russell Martin (in a chat here, GM Ned Colletti said they tried, but Martin’s agent refused)
• MIL: 1B-L Prince Fielder
• NYM: RHP John Maine
• NYY: 2B-L Robinson Cano
• PHI: LHP Cole Hammels, 1B-L Ryan Howard (they’re trying hard with Howard)
• SF: RHP Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum
• SEA: RHP Felix Hernandez
• WAS: 3B-R Ryan Zimmerman

Did I miss anyone? There are other players who could qualify, but these are the no-brainers. It may not be possible in every case or it may take some creativity, but if these players can be retained, they must be. It will be interesting to see if any of these players do get locked up between now and Spring Training.
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Bob Gibson strikes out 17 in a World Series game. Ridiculous video, a lot of fun to watch. (Don’t Waste Wine)

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Baseball Prospectus’ Rany Jazayerli crunches some numbers and points out some interesting things from 2007. Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla had the most extra base hits ever for a middle infield tandem.

Player of the Week: Jay Bruce

Cincinnati Reds CF-L Jay Bruce is 2008’s prospect of the year. Baseball America hasn’t published its top 100 prospects yet, but when it does, Jay Bruce will be #1. When I publish my top 25 list (coming soon!), he will be #1.  He is already the number one prospect according to multiple sources, including Minor League Baseball (check the video provided to see live footage).

Bruce was selected 12th overall in the 2005 out of Westbrook high school in an amateur draft the was rich in high school outfield prospects, including OF-R Justin Upton (1st overall–Arizona), Cameron Maybin (10th overall–Detroit), Andrew McCutchen (11th overall–Pittsburgh), CF-L Jacoby Ellsbury (23rd overall–Boston), and Colby Rasmus (28th overall-St. Louis). Bruce outperformed all of his peers, hitting a combined .319/.375/.587 with 26 home runs in 521 at-bats between advanced A ball and AAA, never slugging less than .567 (AAA), as a 20 year-old, on his way to earning the Midwest League MVP award as well as Baseball America’s Player of the Year Award in 2007.

Most scouts would still rate Upton as the top talent out of the 2005 draft, but none will argue that Bruce could be every bit the superstar and contend for the top spot out of that talented crop of players. As much as Bruce is known for his talent, he is also regarded as having a great work ethic with excellent character and makeup, as Cincinnati General Manager Wayne Krivski notes, “He’s got a nice package of skills and ability to go along with that makeup…He’s 20 years old and having success in Triple-A…but for as much talent as he has, his family deserves all the credit for the quality person he is. Something like that cannot be quantified.”

In a recent ranking of Cincinatti’s top prospects, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus says:

“Bruce is loaded with both tools and skills. He’s a fantastic hitter who is seemingly incapable of light contact, projecting as a .300+ hitter who approaches 100 extra-base hits annually. He has average to slightly-above speed and has proven to be surprisingly capable in center field, while also showcasing a strong arm. He supplements his natural abilities with strong makeup and an outstanding work ethic.”

I’m not certain I would agree with the 100 extra basehits right off the bat–that’s like saying he’ll become Albert Pujols–but this is high praise for such a young player, and Cincinatti’s faith in Bruce led to their trading of CF-L Josh Hamilton, making room for Bruce in centerfield for 2008. Bruce will likely see a lot of time in center for the Reds in 2008, and while some scouts question his ability to stick in center beyond the next couple seasons, his hitting will be good enough to play in either outfield corner, where he will likely end up as a rightfielder once OF-L Ken Griffey Jr departs.

Beyond that, its anyones guess what kind of player Bruce will become. The sky is the limit. I see a player who will be a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate who hits 35-40 home runs in his peak.  His plate discipline has never been fantastic, but as a superior hitter at a young age, those skills will develop at the big league level as he learns the league. For this season, I see about 400 AB’s with a .280/.330/.480 line with close to 20 home runs.  I’m assuming his pitch selection will improve a little, even at the big league level. 

The Reds have a lot to be excited for in 2008 and with flawed teams in Milwaukee and Chicago competing for the NL Central title in 2008, the Reds are a solid sleeper pick for 2008, provided they get the type of production expected from players like Bruce.

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Baseball Prospectus’s Will Carroll weighs in on young pitcher usage on the Lohud Yankees Blog. The New York Yankees (RHP Joba Chamberlain, Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedyare in trouble) as well as the Tampa Bay Rays (LHP Scott Kazmirand RHP James Shields, Matt Garza) because young pitchers cannot pitch a lot of innings without a lot of risk involved according to the Year After Effect. Carroll suggests using Chamberlain in the rotation for 100 innings, then moving him to the bullpen. Makes sense, isn”t going to happen.

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The longest tenured General Manager in baseball, Kevin Towers, received a contract extension, to remain in San Diego through 2010. Most importantly, Towers has completed deals to keep sluggers 1B-L Adrian Gonzalezand RHP Jake Peavy and Chris Young in San Diego. The Peavy extensionrepresents a huge step in remaining in contention in the NL West where the Pads have largely been underdogs in recent years but have still managed to contend year after year.

Afternoon Links: Clemens/Pettitte Drama, NL West Defense and some Football

I always believed Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte were buddies. They were both Texans, they worked out together and they both went to Houston to pitch in 2004. I guess, according to an anonymous friend, they really weren’t friends.

I find it interesting how the media weaves stories, sometimes falsely, because its fun to think about for fans (and it sells papers). Maybe, they’re more friends than we think and this is yet another example of media story telling, maybe the steroid thing ruins friendships (see McNamee v. Clemens), but either way, we as fans, sure buy into all this fluff.

They’re both still great pitchers and Clemens may be the greatest ever.

Funny, though, that there’s all this controversy.  Clemens admitted to everything, steroids, everything.  (All Talk Sports)

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69 Days until opening day, reports Obscure Sports Quarterly (a fellow Bruin). I can’t wait.

In other news, the Baltimore Orioles suck.

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Rox Girl of Purple Row breaks down the defense in the NL West in 2008. She’s a homer, predicting the Rockies to vastly outperform the AZ Diamondbacks defensively (I’m not so sure), but it’s a good read.

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Other Sports (They Exist):

UCLA Football is Finally Legit with the hiring of Norm Chow as offensive coordinator, reports Larry Brown. I love it. (Larry Brown Sports).

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Indianapolis Colts headcoach Tony Dungy Can’t Quit Colts. For a well-known homophobe, was this headline a coincidence? asks The Big Lead.

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Bret Favre, No Super For You! Best Use of Photoshop. HA! (Epic Carnival)

Rockies Extend Tulowitzki: 6-Years $30 Million

The Colorado Rockies have reportedly agreed to a contract extension with SS-R Troy Tulowitzki on a record six-year $30 million contract with a club option for 2014. This deal represents the largest contract for a player with only one-year of service time, eclipsing the six-year $23.45 million contract signed by CF-L Grady Sizemore in 2006.

Big ups to General Manager Dan O’Dowd and the Colorado Rockies front office for getting this deal done. They have managed to give themselves cost certainty through Tulowitzki’s arbitration years and have cut into his first two seasons of free agency provided they pick up their club option. As a result, Tulo won’t become a free agent until he turns 30.

Still, for the kid who was drafted 7th overall out of Long Beach State in 2005, Tulowitzki must be happy and he sure earned his new contract. Tulowitzki is coming off a stellar rookie season where he hit .291/.359/.479 with 24 home runs and 99 RBI in 609 at-bats. Tulowitzki also made a name for himself as a wizard with the glove and rated as the second best shortstop in baseball according to defensive zone rating and finished the season 24 fielding runs above average (FRAA). He finished in second place in rookie of the year voting behind 3B-R Ryan Braun of Milwaukee.

Regardless of what happens with LF-R Matt Holliday, whether he departs as a free agent following the 2009 season, Tulowitzki is exactly the type of player an organization wants to lock up longterm and build around as his defense at a middle of the diamond position will keep his value high. The only concern is his road performance as his he hit only .256/.327/.393 with 9 home runs, compared to .326/.392/.568 with 15 home runs at home. This disparity is troubling, but isn’t too much cause for concern as it was his rookie season.

All in all, this is a great deal for the Rockies and their fans.

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The St. Louis Cardinals have given C-R Yadier Molina a four-year extension with a club option for 2012. Like the Tulowitzki deal, this will keep the catcher with the Cardinals through one or two of his free agent seasons. Molina, living up to the family reputation, has consistently been one of the best defensive catchers in baseball although he has never hit too well.

The financial terms have not yet been disclosed but Molina likely is earning less than $20 million over the life of the deal and again, cost and position certainty are important for teams, particularly at a position like catcher where a working relation with a pitching staff is key.

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The Chicago White Sox have agreed to terms with RHP Octavio Dotel to a two-year $11 million deal. Dotel has battled arm injuries and was limited to 30.2 IP in 2007 and missed most of 2005-06 as well. This is another long-shot attempt by the White Sox at contending in 2008 through taking risk and giving a player who probably won’t pitch over the life of the contract in the hopes of getting something out of him in 2008.

I’m not buying it.

Base Hits: Teixeira, Cabrera sign; Robertson gets Extension

Wrapping up with arbitration stories, the Atlanta Braves are gearing up for their last hurrah, signing 1B-S Mark Teixeira to a one-year $12.5 million contract. It will be unlikely that the Braves will be able to retain the Boras client for less than market value, but if the Braves put together a good run in the NL East, Teixeira may enjoy playing for manager Bobby Cox. I still look for Teixeira to depart after the 2007 season.

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The Detroit Tigers have agreed to terms with 3B-R Miguel Cabrera on a one-year $11.3 million, a significant raise from his 2006 salary of $7.4 million. This was a first step toward locking up the 25 year-old phenom long-term. It seems obvious that Cabrera wouldn’t sign a long-term deal without experiencing playing in the American League and playing for manager Jim Leyland, but the Tigers have the pieces in place to become a strong contender in 2007 and that’s what it’s going to take to entice Cabrera to stay.

The Tigers also signed LHP Nate Robertson to a 3-year $21.25 million extension. The “innings eater” will give the Tigers some stability at the back end of the rotation. I’m not crazy about Robertson or what he does on the mound, but the Tigers will still have some flexibility after 2007 once LHP Kenny Rogers comes off the books.

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The Tampa Bay Rays have traded for former Braves IF-S Willy Aybar. Aybar, 24, when he signed with the LA Dodgers, received the highest signing bonus of all time for a Dominican player, but after a trade to the Braves, battled problems with substance abuse and hasn’t played since 2006. Still, Aybar is exactly the type of player the Rays could use to build up competition in their middle infield and still figures to be a solid offensive contributor if he puts his past behind him.

Arbitration Underway: Early Winners and Losers

Contracts are being signed left and right as organizations and players are coming to terms on short-term contracts, smartly avoiding the arbitration process. As much as most players try to keep the “business” of baseball in mind, going through the process often leaves a bad taste in players’ mouths, so organizations strive to appease their players by avoiding the process altogether. In some cases, when the figures being thrown around do not agree, arbitration is inevitable. Here is a list of some winners and losers.

Winners:

Oakland Athletics: We all know the A’s are rebuilding by now. For that reason, they need to keep risk to a minimum. Where before, Billy Beane and company were considering locking up closer RHP Huston Street to a long-term deal, having suffered an elbow injury in 2007, they wisely locked him up to a one-year deal. Likewise, the A’s agreed to terms on a one-year deal with RHP Joe Blanton. The A’s have been traditionally very good at securing young talent–RHP Rich Harden, RHP Dan Haren, OF-S Nick Swisher–that is not their priority for now. If the A’s elect to trade either player, locking them up to longer deals will be up to their new teams.

Carlos Pena: When journeymen strike it rich, it’s usually not a great idea (see: Gary Matthews Jr.), but 1B-L Carlos Pena showed in 2007 that he can hit, mashing to a .282/.411/.627 clip with 46 home runs in 490 AB. That performance was a shocker to everyone in baseball and earned Pena the Comeback Player of the Year award. The 30-year old slugger earned every penny of his $24.125 million deal.

Colorado Rockies: After LF-R Matt Holliday, Scott Boras rejected a 5-year $60 million contract to keep the MVP runner-up in Coors, Dan O’Dowd has given Holliday a 2-year $23 million deal, keeping the slugger in uniform through his walk-year in 2009. In this regard, the Rockies have done the next best thing aside from giving Holliday an extension, they’re keeping him happy. Now, when it comes time to attempt to negotiate an extension following the 2008 season, Boras and Holliday will remember this.

Losers:

Kevin Youkilis: The Red Sox and 1B-R Kevin Youkilis were unable to come to terms on a contract with Youkilis asking for $3.7 million and the Red Sox offering $2.5 million. As a corner infielder with only a little bit of pop, Youkilis should be content starting for a championship team. Even if he is liked by the fans, has been a key contributor, the Sox have already shown that corner infielders aren’t hard to come by and aren’t difficult to replace when they let fan favorite Kevin Millar walk. Clearly, it’s a different situation as Youkilis is only 29 and Millar was 33, and I’m not saying Youk shouldn’t ask for the money, he just has a rude awakening ahead when he learns the Red Sox don’t value him as much as he thinks they might.

New York Mets: The Mets have a long process ahead of them over what doesn’t amount to a lot of money. With LHP Oliver Perez, the differences of $1.775 million (asked $6.5 million, offered $4.725 million), isn’t much for a team who should explore retaining their reclamation success story. They are also at odds with RHP Jorge Sosa ($1.05 million), OF-L Ryan Church ($700,000), RHP Pedro Feliciano ($320,000) and OF-L Endy Chavez ($350,000). While most of these guys aren’t superior talents, taking a player to arbitration represents a lack of control on the part of the organization, who can just as easily offer a mult-year deal and retain some cost-control or certainty beyond 2008.

Philadelphia Phillies: You know the best not to lock your superstar slugger to an extension? Take ‘em to court. The Phillies and 1B-L Ryan Howard are going to an arbiter over a reported difference of $3 million (Phillies $7 million, Howard $10 million). If they had instead offered him a two-year deal, or even a deal that covered Howard through his arb years, they would likely save money in the long-run and give themselves a better chance at retaining Howard.  Howard is asking for a lot though, as $10 million would be the highest first year award ever (Miguel Cabrera was most in 2007 at $7.4 million).  Howard isn’t going to be happy when he ends up getting $7 million.

Glaus For Rolen

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to terms to trade 3B-R Troy Glaus for Scott Rolen. Because both players are damaged, former All-Star third basemen with no-trade clauses, it makes for a difficult trade to break down, namely to pick a winner. Perhaps, as what is being called a “challenge trade,” the only winners are Rolen and Glaus, who both needed a change of scenery, but that’s no fun. I’ve put a lot of thought into this one and decided with a trade as close as this one, it makes sense to break it down by offensive and defensive potential, the new ballparks (each player will now play in), health concerns and financial considerations.

The foremost concern for both players is their health. Glaus has been affected by his foot injury, plantar fasciitis and a long history of back problems that were exacerbated by playing on turf in Toronto. He will benefit from a move to grass, which was the reason he requested a trade to begin with. Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll had this to say:

“According to sources, Glaus had a nerve problem that was painful but not serious. He had surgery to decompress the nerve causing the pain due to plantar fasciitis.  Remember, the Cards have good experience with managing plantar fasciitis—they’ve been able to keep Albert Pujols on the field despite the condition, and Pujols has continued to produce due to some advanced techniques and plain old hard work.”

Rolen has been plagued by an arthritic shoulder that has sapped him of his power and most of his hitting ability. Again, Carroll weighs in on Rolen:

“Rolen’s arthritic condition is going to come back, but his most recent procedure shouldn’t be dissimilar to the last one in terms of results: he’ll be okay for a while, but the time will come when the shoulder will start to tighten up. At that point, Rolen’s going to have to take a hard look at a needle full of cortisone and the rest of his life after baseball. The question is if the Jays medical staff, among the best in the business, can control the symptoms and bring back some of Rolen’s power that’s been lost to the injury.”

Both players have had to deal with injuries but as far as offensive performance goes, Rolen seems to have been more affected offensively by his injury hitting only .265/.331/.398 with 8 home runs in 398 AB in 2007 after a promising 2006. Glaus was limited to 385 AB in 2007, but still managed to hit .262/.366/.473 with 20 home runs. Still, Rogers Centre in Toronto played as more of a hitters park than the new Busch Stadium. A closer look reveals this as Glaus hit .282/.402/.481 at home and .249/.341/.467 on the road. Meanwhile, Rolen hit .243/.319/.366 and a more respectable .289/.344/.432 on the road. Even with a change of scenery, Rolen may not be able to hit for as much power as he once did, but a solid boost to his batting average and some doubles should be more than possible. Glaus will need to keep his power stroke to retain his value but even in Busch, I would still pick Glaus to outperform Rolen.

Defensively, there is no comparison. Rolen has consistently rated as one of the best at third. Even with his injury, he still played +16 FRAA (fielding runs over the average third baseman), keeping his WARP1 at 4.1 despite his meager hitting. Glaus managed to play +3 FRAA and a 4.0 WARP1, which is good for Glaus who historically is slow and unathletic at the hot corner. It will be Rolen’s consistent defensive contribution that will keep his value reasonably high no matter what he hits.

All in all, because of the defense, it would seem likely that the Blue Jays came out on top in this trade because even in the worst season in Rolen’s career, he still outperformed Glaus overall (barely), but the financial considerations are what make the deal tough to assess.

With Rolen still owed $36 million over the remaining 3 years (left over from a eight-year $90 million contract extension–see, 8-year deals never work out), he is signed though his age 35 season, which is a long time for a player who is already being affected by injury. Glaus, on the other hand, picked up his player option for 2009, and will be paid $23.5 million over two years, signed through his age 33 season. This is probably the single most important factor in what is looking like a close trade and for this very reason, it looks like the Cardinals probably got the better end of the deal.

If Rolen, rejuvenated by the trade, is able to hit his way to a .290/.360/.440 line–and this is a big if–with his usual glovework, he may outperform Glaus. It will take Glaus hitting something like .250/.360/.500 to outperform Rolen. Either way, the Cardinals will be off the hook one season sooner, but health will be the ultimate determinant in this deal.