Merry Christmas

I just want to wish everyone a merry Christmas and a happy holliday season.  Spend time with loved ones and enjoy the time you have together.

Regular posting will be put on hold for about a week as I will be going on a skii vacation in Mammoth. 

I will see you all in the year 2008!

Detroit Tigers Extend Willis; What About Miguel?

The Detroit Tigers have agreed to terms with left-handed pitcher Dontrelle Willis on a 3-year $29 million contract extension through the 2010 season. There is also an incentive clause which will pay Willis an additional $500,000 if he wins a Cy Young Award. In 2007, Willis made $6.45 million with the Florida Marlins and was set to get a raise in arbitration. Willis would have been a free agent following the 2009 season.

Willis, 25, is coming off of the worst year of his career, pitching 205.1 innings with a 5.17 ERA with 146 strikeouts, 87 walks and 29 home runs with a 10 – 15 record. However, in five seasons with the Marlins, Willis is 68-54 with a 3.78 ERA in 1022.2 IP, with 757 strikeouts and 344 walks.

With Willis, the Detroit Tiger’s rotation will look like this for 2008:

Justin Verlander, RHP -200 IP – 3.80 ERA – 160 K – 70 BB

Jeremy Bonderman, RHP – 180 IP – 4.00 ERA – 180 IP – 60 BB

Dontrelle Willis, LHP – 200 IP – 4.50 ERA – 140 IP – 70 BB

Kenny Rogers, LHP – 80 IP – 4.60 ERA – 40 K – 20 BB

Nate Robertson, LHP – 160 IP – 4.80 ERA – 90 K – 50 BB

Justin Verlander took a step forward in 2007, increasing his K/9 from just shy of 6 to 8.2. That’s what happens when you throw a fastball that sits 95 – 98 mph and hits 100 mph with the slow curve and now a decent circle change. If he remains healthy again in 2008, he will be one to watch. Bonderman, still only 25 years-old, is coming off a disappointing 2007 season that was affected by inconsistency and an elbow injury. At worst, his pitching should be in line with his 2005-06 level. He may finally put it all together this season and ascend to the true ace many (including myself) believe he will be but the injury is bad news. This season, Kenny Rogers will be 43 years-old and only pitched 63 innings in 2007, so they’ll need him to eat up some innings along with Robertson at the back of the rotation because they don’t have many viable options.

Willis is a polarizing pitcher–he is viewed with a great deal of skepticism amongst the statistical community, but he is popular in the media as a former 20-game winner and a major contributor to the Marlins 2003 World Series. I tend to take somewhat of a middle ground when it comes to Willis. Is he the superstar he was in 2005? Surely not, but he isn’t as bad as his numbers reflected last season either. He’s young, durable so far and has decent stuff and is a lefty. He’s an asset to the Tigers even with the extension. After all, he’d probably have been the best pitcher on the market this off-season including Curt Schilling because of innings pitched (although there are no bad one-year deals) and they got him below market value through only his age 28 season.

More importantly, he will step into a team with a much stronger defense than he had last season with with the Marlins without defensive butchers like Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla up the middle and Miguel Cabrera in the infield (oh, wait–Miggy is still there). He also has Granderson patrolling center–one of the better defensive center fielders in the game. Poor defense helps explain his 3.29 BABIP (see McCracken) in 2007, which should see a decline in 08.

My only complaint is they should explore extending Miguel Cabrera before any other player. The deal was a steal but that doesn’t change the endgame. That is a must for them but it may not happen this season.

Quick Hits

Curt Schilling calls out another great, after A-Rod (bush-league), Barry Bonds (cheater) and now Roger Clemens (cheater). I saw the story on ESPN and had to read the article before jumping to conclusions, but I went in pissed on Roger’s behalf. After reading it, I have to admit, I agree with him on a lot of points. If anyone was accused falsely, they need to take it to court. NO ONE HAS, ever. The article is very well written and makes a compelling argument. Definitely worth a read. I truly hope he never gets connected to HGH, even if with a prescription and an injury. Schilling, like Clemens, was famous for intensive off-season work-out programs that is often attributed to Clemens.

This whole steroid thing is ugly, but it’s something everyone has always known about. The Mitchell report didn’t tell us anything new, except Roger Clemens. The issue was staring us in the face, even Clemens. That one hurt, but it makes sense and it proves anyone could have done it, even once.

Our generations best hitter and pitcher got a little extra help.

I want to know, if an HGH prescription is legal, if used for medical healing purposes, then is HGH use before 2005 okay? It shouldn’t be promoted but its not illegal, like buying steroids off the black market or shady distributors like BALCO.

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Good read: Baseball Analyst’s Al Doyle points out why all but a handful of teams should avoid spending big money to make marginal improvement. I say save the money and invest it in the draft like Tampa has.

Andrew at True Blue LA explains why some teams can.

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I know this one has been linked a lot, but DRaysBay, a site I’ve begun to read and admire in the SB nation, has an interview with Robert “Voros” McCracken, formerly a big league consultant with the Boston Red Sox.

Better still is McCracken’s article on Defense Independent Pitching Statistics from Baseball Prospectus (circa 2001), which is a classic and a groundbreaking piece. If you haven’t read this one, or aren’t aware of these basic ideas, you’re in for an eye-opener.

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Let’s get some talent evaluation into the mix: John Sickels of Minor League Ball scouts Jacoby Ellsbury, Cameron Maybin and grades both Yankee Clemens-look-a-like Joba Chamberlain (not roids, just looks) and Clay Buchholz “A” prospects.

Who do you think is 1A?

A: I think Buchholz has proven himself for longer, but the ballpark will even out their numbers on the surface in 2008. Long term, it’s anyone’s guess.

Johan Santana Revisited

Talks have been on hold since we last checked in but it seems the New York Yankees have backed out of the deadline they placed in the Johan Santana trade negotiations. That was quick. There are several trades on the table, or at least believed to be on the table. What happens if the Yankees or the Red Sox–pretty much the two heaviest hitters in the American League–acquire Santana? A look at each scenario with projections.

New York Yankees

1. Johan Santana, LHP – 220 IP – 2.60 ERA – 240 K – 6o BB
2. Chien-Ming Wang, RHP – 210 IP – 3.60 ERA – 120K – 60 BB
3. Andy Pettitte, LHP – 180 IP – 4.40 ERA – 130 K – 60 BB
4. Joba Chamberlain, RHP – 180 IP – 3.50 ERA – 160 K -50 BB
5. Mike Mussina, RHP – 140 IP – 4.60 ERA – 90 K – 50 BB

Provided they don’t trade Ian Kennedy, he would step in if something goes wrong. As a college finesse pitcher, he would represent a good fit as a fourth or fifth starter. In limited time, I see Kennedy as a healthy young arm with marginal stuff–fast ball maxes out at 92 mph / sits in the 88-90 mph range.

Ian Kennedy, RHP – 120 IP – 4.20 ERA – 80 K 30 BB

That’s a good rotation with a little depth. Not to mention, the Yankees could easily acquire a marginal starting pitcher and throw money at it. It’s a nice luxury to have.

Should the Red Sox get Santana, their rotation would look like this:

1. Johan Santana, LHP – 220 IP – 3.00 ERA – 240 K – 6o BB
2. Josh Beckett, RHP – 190 IP – 3.40 ERA – 180 K – 50 BB
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP – 200 IP – 3.80 ERA – 160 K – 50 BB
4. Curt Schilling, RHP – 150 IP – 4.00 ERA – 100 K – 30 BB
5. Clay Buchholz, RHP – 180 IP – 3.50 ERA – 180 K – 50 BB

Having Santana is almost excessive since Tim Wakefield and Jon Lester would be bumped from the rotation in the process. The Red Sox may be paying too high a price if they end up wasting two above average starters for a season. With either Wakefield or Lester in the rotation, and the other waiting for Curt Schilling to miss time, lose money–he has a weight / time lost clause. Bad idea on Schilling’s part, but whatever keeps you motivated. Don’t forget, Beckett also has a history of arm trouble.

Tim Wakefield, RHP – 100 IP – 4.80 ERA – 80 K – 60 BB

John Lester, LHP – 120 IP – 4.20 ERA – 90 K – 40 BB

Should a trade go through, the Yankees wouldn’t lose much offensively in a Philip Hughes, Melky Cabrera and one of a couple of good prospects likes Alan Horne or Jose Tabata, but they would have to pick either Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon or Bobby Abreu to take a stab at center field or offer Mike Cameron a short deal and deal Matsui or Damon–who knows? I’d settle with Damon in center but it wouldn’t be pretty.

If the Red Sox pull the trigger, they’d lose Jacoby Ellsbury in center when their hope was to trade Coco Crisp instead. They’re lucky they won’t lose out at a defensively important position in a ballpark with a lot of run scoring. Ellsbury has won the love of Sox fans after tearing it up down the stretch and hitting well in the playoffs for a World Series team. He is an athletic speedy potential lead-off hitter with some possibility for power but not much.

Jacoby Ellsbury, L – .300/.360/.380 – 8 HR – 40 SB

Coco Crisp, S – .290/.340/.380 – 10 HR – 28 SB

Ellsbury has always had very healthy walk and strikeout rates, which bodes well for his potential to hit and improve his plate discipline. If he remains with the club, he will lead off for them a large portion of the time, combining with Kevin Youkilis or JD Drew to provide a potent 1-2 punch. I still like Coco Crisp. I might be alone, but I think he still can be a good hitter with all of Fenway park at his disposal. He can hit a lot of doubles and triples. Should Ellsbury be traded, he will hit 8th or 9th but hopefully not be as bad as he has with Boston offensively. Same goes for Julio Lugo.

Either team would give themselves a huge boost with the addition of Santana, but it would be costly. What would happen to the Twins if they pull the trigger with either the Yankees or the Red Sox? They’d still be a ways from contention but it would offer them a start. First the Yankees, then the Red Sox:

Minnesota Twins

1. Francisco Liriano, LHP – 120 IP – 3.50 ERA – 100 K – 30 BB
2. Boof Bonser, RHP – 180 IP – 4.00 ERA – 150 K – 60 BB
3. Philip Hughes, RHP – 180 IP – 3.60 ERA – 150 K – 50 BB
4. Scott Baker, RHP – 180 IP – 4.40 ERA – 120 K – 50 BB
5. Kevin Slowey, RHP – 180 IP – 4.00 ERA – 140 K – 40 BB

That’s not a bad rotation provided the young arms can hold up under increased pressure. Most notably, Francisco Liriano (remember him?), the lefty who took the AL by storm in 2006 but got hurt before he could regress. He missed all of 2007 with Tommy John surgery, but should pitch in 2008. It’s only a question of how much and how well.

Offensively, the Twins wouldn’t gain much trading with the Yankees as Melky Cabrera is hardly a star. He would fill in and play center field but he won’t dramatically improve an offense that doesn’t have much sock. Should the Twins trade with the Red Sox, they would add a presence at the top of the order with Ellsbury.

Minnesota Twins

1. CF – Jacoby Ellsbury, L – .290/.350/.390 – 6 HR – 40 SB
2. 2B – Alexi Casilla, S – .280/.360/.380 – 0 HR – 40 SB
3. C – Joe Mauer, L – .310/.400/.450 – 15 HR
4. 1B – Justin Morneau, L – .280/.350/.500 – 33 HR
5. 3B – Michael Cuddyer, R – .270/.340/.440 – 18 HR
6. RF – Delmon Young, R – .290/.330/.480 – 25 HR
7. DH – Jason Kubel, L – .280/.350/.440 – 16 HR
8. LF – Craig Monroe, R – .240/.310/.420 – 12 HR
9. SS – Adam Everett, R / Jed Lowrie, R – .240/.290/.330 – 8 HR — .260/.350/.450 – 10 HR

Here is the solution to the Nick Punto problem: don’t play him. Cuddyer can play third. He won’t be good but he won’t be Punto. I’m not sure Casilla will get the starting job off the bat nor am I sure he’d bat second. At worst, they can shift Mauer or maybe even Delmon Young to hit second. Everett will be a good addition either as a defensive player or a backup option. Lowrie would surely start the year in AAA. That’s not a terrible team but I’m not sure about Monroe or what they do if he fails.

I don’t want to project Delmon Young. There are still holes in his game but he is a future superstar. If pressed, I’m optimistically shooting for 25 bombs for the slugging right fielder. The sooner he learns to lay off the bad pitches, the sooner he becomes a superstar. The kid can hit.

Really, if the Yankees can get away with a package that includes Hughes,Cabrera and another player like Jose Tabata, they should jump on it to stay in the race as a major player. They may have to offer more as they have yet to come to an agreement with the Twins. If the Red Sox go for it, they’d be an easy favorite to win the World Series and force the Yankees to compete with the Tigers and Indians for the Wild Card. The Twins need to wait for the best package possible and might hold onto Santana until Spring training until they find the best fit.

Things would really get interesting in the American League if the Angels were to step in and surprise us with a deal.

What’s the Word? Tampa Bay Rays Aim to Edge Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays signed outfielder Cliff Floyd to a 1-Year $2.75 million contract with $2 million in incentives. Floyd will get partial play-time on both outfield corners, splitting time with OF Rocco Baldelli and Jonny Gomes and may also see some time at DH. Floyd, 35, spent 2007 with the Chicago Cubs, hitting .284/.373/.422 with 9 home runs in 282 AB.

With this move, the Rays have what looks like a nice mix of cheap, effective veteran talent to go along with a competitive core of young players with a lot of upside and this may be the season that we’ve all been expecting from them since the birth of the franchise. We’ve been watching them for a while, always thinking, “they’ll be good one of these days.” We may get a glimpse of that this season.

I’m not saying they’ll de-throne the Yankees or the Red Sox any time soon. They lack the financial resources to do that at this time. It may be possible some day should the team begin to see progress and build up a fanbase and revenue to lock up some of their young talent but for now, they should have their eyes dead-set on third place. I think they can do it.

They have to beat the always-slightly-above-average-at-all-positions Toronto Blue Jays, who generally finish in third give or take. They are always good but never have quite what it takes to make a play-off berth.

Let’s start by comparing the two teams rotations and back end of their bullpens with some loose 2008 projections provided.

Tampa Bay Rays

1. Scott Kazmir, LHP – 200 IP – 3.50 ERA – 220 K – 90 BB
2. James Shields, RHP – 200 IP – 4.00 ERA – 150 K – 60 BB
3. Matt Garza, RHP – 180 IP – 3.90 ERA – 160 K – 60 BB
4. Edwin Jackson, RHP – 150IP – 5.00 ERA – 120 K – 80BB
5. Andy Sonnanstine, LHP – 120 IP – 4.90 ERA – 90K – 40BB

Bullpen

1. CL – Troy Percival – 50 IP – 3.50 ERA – 40 K – 15 BB – 26 SV
2. SU – Dan Wheeler – 70 IP – 3.00 ERA – 60 K – 20 BB
3. SU – Al Reyes – 60 IP – 3.80 ERA – 60 IP – 20 BB

The top of the rotation is solid, with Kazmir capable of posting ace numbers. Last season, he messed around with his mechanics early in the season, but went back to just pitching and his numbers improved dramatically later on in the season. I see Shields as a candidate to regress in 2008, but his 2007 was impressive. The question will be whether or not the control-artist can maintain that high of a strikeout rate with a change-up. He won’t be walking anyone, that’s for sure. Garza will enter the rotation from the beginning of the season and the only worry will be how his arm holds up under a heavier workload, but he should be good for a 3.60 – 4.00 ERA and he will be closely monitored. With guys like Jackson and Sonnanstine, they may only remain in the rotation as long as they’re able to hold down the young guns with guys like Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and Jacob McGee surely knocking, although the latter two are still a ways away. Beware, David Price is coming soon.

As for the bullpen, Percival is a big health risk, having missed all of 2006, but he pitched 40 quality innings in 2007, so he may be a Joe Borowski-type closer for them. I think Reyes will pitch as he did in 2007 and Wheeler will pitch more in line with his 2006 numbers since he won’t be moved around as often as in 2007. Beyond those three, they have Eduardo Morlan, who they got in the Garza-Young trade–I think he’ll step in and make an impact in 2008–but not much else.

Here is Toronto’s rotation for 2008:

1. Roy Halladay, RHP – 220 IP – 3.50 ERA – 130 K – 40 BB
2. AJ Burnett, RHP – 160 IP – 3.60 ERA – 160 K – 60 BB
3. Dustin McGowan, RHP – 190 IP – 4.00 ERA – 140 K – 60 BB
4. Gustavo Chacin, LHP – 140 IP – 4.90 ERA – 90 K – 60 BB
5. Jesse Litsch, RHP – 160 IP – 4.60 ERA – 100 K – 60 BB

Bullpen

1. CL – BJ Ryan, LHP – 70 IP – 2.40 ERA – 90 K – 30 BB – 35 SV
2. SU – Jeremy Accardo, RHP – 70 IP – 2.90 ERA – 60 K – 25 BB
3. SU – Casey Janssen, RHP – 60 IP – 3.80 ERA – 50 K – 20 BB

The rotation situation in Toronto is much more dire, with Doc Halladay and McGowan as the only guys who probably won’t miss time. If Burnett can remain healthy, they will have a solid #1 – 3, but even then, without much depth in the pipeline, they can’t afford to lose anyone in the rotation. In the bullpen, if Ryan comes back strong, it will give them a presence in the bullpen that Tampa Bay can not match.

Here is a comparison of the two teams lineups. I will put together what I think their starting nine should be, again, with my projections.

Tampa Bay Rays:

1. LF – Carl Crawford, L – .310/.360/.480 – 16 HR – 55 SB
2. RF – Rocco Baldelli, R – .290/.340/.460 – 15 HR – 20 SB (400 AB)
3. CF – B.J. Upton, R – .290/.360/.490 – 25 HR – 25 SB
4. 1B – Carlos Pena, L – .270/.390/.530 – 32 HR
5. DH – Cliff Floyd/Jonny Gomes, L/R – .270/.350/.440 – 10 HR / .240/.330/.460 – 12 HR
6. 3B – Evan Longoria, R – .280/.360/.470 – 18 HR (400 AB)
7. 2B – Akinori Iwamura, L – .290/.360/.420 – 12 HR
8. SS – Jason Barlett, R – .270/.340/.370 – 18 SB
9. C – Dioner Navarro, S – .250/.330/.350

It’s difficult to project some players, like Upton, who broke out in 2007, but struck out way too often to sustain that kind of success. His patience has always been good so if he continues to make strides, the sky is the limit. I see Pena as a big regression candidate and I don’t know how I feel about listing him with even as many as 32 home runs but the man can hit. I’m a huge fan of Longoria and I say, the sooner he’s up the better. He is my pick for AL Rookie of the Year. I also like Navarro, as a former Dodger, and he may just turn the corner after a strong second half in 2007. This is a team that is very well-balanced, looks pretty strong on paper and has a lot of upside.

The Toronto Blue Jays:

1. SS – David Eckstein, R – .290/.350/.360 – 1 HR
2. CF – Vernon Wells, R – .280/.330/.460 – 23 HR
3. RF – Alex Rios, R – .300/.350/.500 – 26 HR – 15 SB
4. DH – Frank Thomas, R – .250/.370/.520 – 25 HR (400 AB)
5. 3B – Troy Glaus, R – .255/.350/.480 – 30 HR
6. 1B – Lyle Overbay, R – .270/.350/.450 – 15 HR
7. LF – Adam Lind, L – .280/.350/.470 – 22 HR
8. 2B – Aaron Hill, R – .290/.340/.440 – 12 HR
9. C – Greg Zaun, S – .240/.310/.380 – 8 HR

While Toronto’s lineup has more power than Tampa’s, they are also a very right-handed heavy team and following a lot of poor performances in 2007 from guys like Wells, Lind and Overbay, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt looking for improvement. Also, they’ll need Glaus and Thomas to stay healthy. Toronto has a lot of question marks here and if Overbay fails to recover from his injury or Wells remains his usual mediocre self, they’ll be in trouble.

Defensively, Toronto rated the best in baseball according to defensive efficiency, while Tampa Bay was dead-lastin 2007. Tampa will not be fielding the same defense this season though. With Longoria stepping in at third (I think plus defender) and Iwamura relieving Upton at second, they will be much better off. Also, the additions of Barlett and a healthy Bardelli will bolster the defense. I think the Rays have a chance to at least be in the middle of the pack.

With that, look for Tampa Bay to beat out the Toronto Blue Jays in 2008 thanks to a break out or two (I say Evan Longoria and Matt Garza) along with the rest of their core of young players, supported by a Pena and a Percival. They will be a fun team to watch in 2008.

Dodgers Sign Hiroki Kuroda to 3-Year $53.3 Million Deal

The Los Angeles Dodgers outbid the Seattle Mariners to attract Japanese free agent Hiroki Kuroda to the states, agreeing to a 3-year $35.3 million contract. Kuroda, 33, will step in to become the Dodger’s fifth starter behind Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley and Jason Schmidt.Kuroda is believed to be the best of a potential crop of Japanese pitchers who want to pitch in the US this year although the projections for 2008 and beyond are mixed.

From a scouting standpoint, Prospect Insider says:

“Kuroda sits 90-92 with a four-seam fastball that shows good leverage, although only a fair amount of sink. He has solid command of the fastball and is not afraid to elevate the pitch to change planes to give the hitter something else to look at, which is ideal since the 33-year-old does not throw a curve ball.

Kuroda’s fork-split is his best pitch and the one in which he will record the majority of his strikeouts. He’s capable of throwing it for strikes, but it’s much more effective as a change-of-pace offering that falls off the table into the dirt.

Kuroda is the class of the three free agents and will get the most interest but he profiles as a No. 3 at best, depending mostly on how well he adapts to the patient approach of the hitters in MLB.”

Dodger assistant general manager Logan White had this to say:

“I put my reputation on the guy. He’s legit. He has a very good delivery, an easy arm motion. He throws from a three-quarters angle. He runs his fastball anywhere from 89-95 miles per hour and stays around 93. He has a slider/cutter at 89 that has a lot of sharp, crisp bite. His out pitch is what he calls a forkball that has real diving, late action at the right-handed hitter.

He’s a strike thrower, and he’s very athletic, a Gold Glove-like fielder. The biggest thing, for me, is that with runners on base, he buckles down. He really is a warrior.”

This seems to be in line with most of what I’ve seen written on Kuroda. He has a good fastball and a good forkball as well as slider and a shuuto, which is like a changeup with screwball action. His command is said to be good, but with his stuff, we will have to see how it translates at the big league level. I do feel more comfortable seeing that Logan White really likes this guy’s stuff.

Still, his statistics in Japan were far from dominating and it will be interesting to see how it all translates in the Major Leagues. Andrew, over at True Blue LA was not convinced:

“Kuroda is a player entering his mid 30s that had trouble missing bats against inferior competition. The only starters that have come from Japan with strikeout rates worse than Kuroda’s are Keiichi Yabu and Masato Yoshii, neither of whom were exactly successful in their time in the states.”

With fairly unimpressive numbers in Japan, it is uncertain whether or not he will be able to sustain any real success at the big league level, much less justify the slightly less than $13 million a season he will be earning. Also, with Kuroda set to step in as the #5 starter, Esteban Loaiza will start the year in the bullpen, making $7.5 million. The Dodgers saw in 2007 that pitching depth really comes in handy but with the enigmatic Hong-Chih Kuo out of options and Scott Elbert and James McDonald almost ready for the bigs, the Dodgers may have been better served going with what they have.

My projection for Kuroda in 2008 goes something like this:

180 IP – 4.40 ERA – 130K – 60BB – 24HR

Even as a league average starter, Kuroda does make the Dodgers better in 2008 and his signing allows the team to improve the rotation without dealing any young players to acquire Erik Bedard or some such pitcher and the Dodgers don’t have to worry too much about money.

Diamondbacks Acquire Dan Haren from Oakland Athletics for Six Players

The Arizona Diamondbacks, who were the National League West division leaders in 2007 with a league-leading 90-wins, prepared themselves to stay in the hunt with the re-vamping Los Angeles Dodgers and National League Champion Colorado Rockies for 2008 by acquiring Dan Haren from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for six players.

In Haren, the Diamondbacks are adding an ace to a pitching staff that was fourth in the National League with a 4.13 team ERA. Haren finished 2007 with a career best 15-9 record with a 3.07 ERA with 192 K’s and 52 BB’s in 222.2 IP, good for an ERA+ 137. Haren pitched 2007 in the pitcher-friendly McAfee Coliseum and with the A’s great defense behind him, so moving to Chase Field, his 2008 numbers should be more in line with his 2006-07 performance. However, last year’s improvement does represent a steady improvement Haren has been making over the past three seasons in his command and overall poise as his strikeout rate and homerun rate have steadily improved.

Haren is an aggresive pitcher who attacks hitters with a fastball that sits around 92 mph and occasionally hits 94 mph. He also features a plus split-finger fastball that sits around 86-88 mph as well as a curve ball and change up that are both decent pitches that he locates well. He will step in behind Brandon Webb to form a formidable one-two punch.

Arizona general manager, Josh Byrnes, in an interview with KTAR radio, has this to say of Haren: “He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, he’s a starter who pitches a lot of innnings, has been durable. He’s the right age and he’s under contract for three years.” Haren is owed $4 million in 2008, $5.5 million in 2009 and has a club option in 2010 for $6.75 million, making him a bargain for the Diamondbacks.

The six players sent to Oakland in the deal include LHPs Brett Anderson, Greg Smith and Dana Eveland, along with OF Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham and 1B Chris Carter.

In Gonzalez, the A’s are getting the Diamondbacks #1 prospect, according to Baseball America’s organizational Top-10 list. He hit .288/.336/.478 with 17 home runs in 500 ABs between AA and AAA in 2008. He rated as the organization’s best power hitting prospect, although his plate discipline still needs work. He may end up playing for Oakland as soon as early 2008. Anderson was Arizona’s second round pick in 2006 and is a few years away, but he had a strong showing in his pro debut, posting a 3.07 ERA between A ball and advanced A ball with a 125 Ks and 21 walks in 120.1 IP. He was rated by Baseball America as the D-Backs #3 prospect going into 2008 and as the organizations best control pitching prospect as well as possessing the best slider. Cunningham and Carter rated as the organization’s 7th and 8th best prospects respectively.

This move was made in conjunction with trading closer Jose Valverde to the Houston Astros for RHP Chad Qualls and 2B/OF Chris Burke. Valverde was set to get a pay raise in arbitration after leading Major League Baseball with 47 saves and was under club control for 2008-09.

In Qualls, they get a reliable bullpen arm who will be under control for Arizona for another three seasons. Burke once looked like a promising second base prospect with plus speed and great plate discipline, but he never got to take over at secondbase with incumbent Craig Biggio sticking around until this past season before retiring. He will step in as a utility player and possible replacement for Orlando Hudson, who is in his final year before hitting free agency. It will be interesting to see if Burke can reach the potential many saw for him a few years back, now 28, coming off a rough 2007 season and averaging only around 330 ABs for the past three seasons.

On trading Valverde, Byrnes had this to say:

“The two deals work hand-in-hand. The only hesitation with the Oakland deal was it reduced our depth and flexibility which served us so well. The Houston deal brough that right back. It’s hard to replace Jose Valverde, but we have the kind of guys who can do it. On some level, we have to believe in talent and often success in the 7th and 8th inning can translate into success in the 9th.”

In 2008, the Diamondbacks rotation will look like this:

1. Brandon Webb, RHP

2. Dan Haren, RHP

3. Doug Davis, LHP

4. Randy Johnson, LHP

5. Micah Owings, RHP

This looks like a pretty solid rotation and with the depth the Diamondbacks have, their rotation will stack up with that of the Dodgers and Padres. Their bullpen will be in flux, with the closer uncertain but may look something like this:

1. CL – Tony Peña, RHP

2. SU – Chad Qualls, RHP

3. SU – Brandon Lyon, RHP

4. MRP – Juan Cruz, RHP

5. MRP – Doug Slaten, LHP

6. MRP – Dustin Nippert, RHP

7. LRP – Yusmeiro Peit, RHP

Their bullpen may run into some trouble as some at the back-end of the rotation like Pena and Lyon had performances in 2007 that were well ahead of their strikeout and walk rates.

Still, with the addition of Haren, the Diamondbacks are set to make a run at a Championship for the next two or three seasons as their youth movement and rebuilding efforts have culminated, leading up to this team. They will be a team to watch in 2008.

 

For more information on the trade, be sure to check out Jim McLennan’s write up over at AZ Snakepit–always a great read on all things Diamondbacks.

Fun with Tools, Starring the One-Tool Player

I can’t think of anything more bizarre in baseball than a player who has made it to the majors and has been able to sustain a career on the strength of a single, superior tool. There is only one exception to that rule and that is power as that is the rarest and most important of the five tools and the only tool where one can be a superior major leaguer on the strength of a single tool.

 

In most cases, it’s not possible and even when it is (who are we kidding?), these aren’t great players. More than likely, a player may have had more than one superior tool at one point in their career but their skills have since deteriorated, leaving them with that lone tool.

Here are the 2007 One-Tool All-Stars:

POWER –

Again, power is the most valuable of the five tools. Only with this tool can a player make a career of themselves. Yet, a player with this tool and this tool alone generally lack athleticism and can only play left field, first base and serve as designated hitters.

NL Adam Dunn: Dunn had a solid 2007 season, hitting .264/.386/.554 with his forth 40 home run season in a row. None the less, the hard-swinging, oft-walking outfielder has a career .248 avg., having struck out in once out of every 3.25 at-bats in his career. Still, his career .381 on-base percentage and .512 slugging percentage make him an asset to any team.

AL Jack Cust: In a match made in heaven, the Oakland Athletics gave Cust his first big league starting gig, after having accumulated 200 minor league homers. Cust split time between left field and designated hitter and managed a .254/.408/.504 line while walking 105 times and striking out 164 times in 395 ABs.

SPEED –

Speed has, since the days before Ruth, always been viewed as an asset in baseball and it is. It can represent range on defense and extra runs on the base paths. However, in today’s game, it is not enough to drive a career.

NL Juan Pierre: Sabermetric Dodger fans were in fits when the Dodgers gave Juan Pierre his 5-year $45 million contract prior to the 2007 season while many other fans saw him as a spark-plug and capable of burning up the bases. He lived up to both expectations, stealing 64 bases while hitting .293/.331/.353 for the Dodgers. He hit 0 home runs.

AL Julio Lugo: After signing a 4-year $36 million deal with the Boston Red Sox, Lugo really stunk up Fenway park. His defense was poor and he couldn’t hit worth a lick–.237/.294/.349. The only “highlight” was his 33 stolen bases.

HITTING –

Another one of the overrated statistics, this tool is mostly relevant in evaluating amateur talent and minor league talent to see if they can control the strike zone and make consistent contact. At the major league level, it doesn’t hold a lot of weight on its own.

NL Nomar Garciaparra: Injuries have decimated “No-mah’s” career, leaving the former rookie of the year and former hitting specialist with just that, hitting. In his second season with the Dodgers, Garciaparra hit .283/.328/.371 with 7 home runs in 431 ABs. This was mostly at first base. Ouch.

AL Jose Vidro: Vidro managed the emptiest .314 batting average in baseball as Seattle’s designated hitter. He hit 6 home runs and .314/.381/.394 batting line.

FIELDING –

This is the other tool that most often can find itself useful all by itself in a major league role. However, it’s hard to distinguish the value in fielding, independent of arm strength and speed, which increases range. I think I have found these players.

NL David Eckstein: We know Eckstein has a girly arm. We know he isn’t all that fast, but damn it, he can play a decent shortstop regardless. We also know the 5’6” larger-than-life-loved-by-sports-writers-everywhere former All-Star will sign a fatty deal this off-season somewhere. I know he hit .309 in 2007. We can call him a one and a half tool player, at best.

AL Doug Mientkiewicz: Say it with me, people: THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A DEFENSIVE FIRST BASEMAN. Still, Minky managed 166 more ABs than he probably should have gotten in 2007 with the Yankees! He held his own, hitting .277/.349/.440, but I’ll bet my right arm, that will never happen again. He will still be back in 2008, somewhere somehow.

ARM STRENGTH –

They’re called pitchers. I’ll take Joel Zumaya, thanks.

Any other suggestions for the 1-Tool All-Star Team? It took me a while to come up with this. Thanks to Andrew over at True Blue LA for putting his head together to come up with this list.

Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Andy Pettitte Get Named in the Mitchell Report

Thursday morning, Senator George Mitchell released his report on steroid and other performance-enhancing substances in in Major League Baseball. In the release press conference before the world, Mitchell stated, “For more than a decade there has been widespread anabolic steroid use,” adding, “commissioners, club officials, the players’ association and players shares, to some extent, the responsibility for the steroids era.” Mitchell states that “each of the thirty clubs” have had players who have used steroids. Mitchell asked those in Major League Baseball to look to move forward and avoid punishing those implicated for past use.

Be that as it may, there will definitely be a massive public backlash with the often blood-thirsty media driving public opinion. As of now, reporting is going on all over the sports and news world, but little commentary has surfaced because few have read the report.

Mostly, people are clamoring over the list of names, which include many future Hall of Famers and current All-Stars as well as the unimpressive and ignored list of scrubs. Among the names listed, there were those with past links to steroid use, including Barry Bonds, Kevin Brown, Gary Sheffield, Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa and the late Ken Caminiti as well as new names such as most notably Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Miguel Tejada, Eric Gagne and Paul Lo Duca.

The list, even on the report, is far from comprehensive, so by no means do we have the full scope of the usage, but we are beginning to have an idea. Until we have the full grasp of the problem, the blame will just be passed from person to person, official to official.

The steroids era is largely believed to have begun in 1993, although use began as early as the late 1980’s with Jose Conseco and Mark McGwire, perhaps earlier. We will probably never know every name of every player who used steroids, but we have an idea of the effect it has had as countless offensive and pitching records have fallen.

Simply put, steroids and performance enhancers make you stronger, quicker, more alert and recover from work-outs and injury much faster. Players like Clemens and Bonds demonstrated what is capable when a great player gets on the juice, historically-superior performances become possible.

Will baseball take a hit from all of this? Maybe, but I think it would be a little naive of us to pretend like we didn’t know anything. There have been whispers and jokes as long as the bulging biceps and tape-measure homers were staring us in the face. I think we will talk about it, some will be wrongly and overly-harshly be judged and we will move on.

Will baseball recover? Yes, but it may take a little time and it may take a special performance, of an even greater historical sort, to lift us truly beyond this all.

San Francisco Giants, Aaron Rowand Ink 5-Year Deal

The San Francisco Giant have agreed to a 5-year $60 million contract with free-agent CF Aaron Rowand. Rowand is coming off of a career year in 2007 in which he hit .309/.374/.515 with 27 home runs for the NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies. The Giants finished in last place in the NL West in 2007 and hope that the addition of Rowand will improve an offense that will be without Barry Bonds for the first time since 1993.

How does Rowand project for the future and will he live up to his deal?

Rowand was a former first-round pick for the White Sox in 1998 and showed good power in the minor leagues, although his strike zone control was sub-par. This may explain while it took him a while to establish himself in the majors until 2004, his age 26 season, he broke out, hitting .310/.361/.544 with 24 home runs. He would then have two pedestrian seasons, one with the Sox, then one with the Phillies, OPSing .736 and .746, respectively. Despite Rowand’s impressive 2007 season, he got to play it in Citizen’s Bank Park, the best hitter’s park this side of Coors and his numbers reflected such as he hit .319/.380/.557 with 17 home runs at home and .299/.368/.475 with 10 home runs on the road.

Still, for a Giants team that was looking to head into 2008 with Randy Winn and Ray Durham as their best offensive players, Rowand, 30, stands to improve the club quite a bit, even if he hits closer to his 2007 road line. I see a .285/.350/.460 in his future with about 18 bombs.

Rowand will also improve the Giants team defense, as he rates well according to most quantitative measures as a center fielder. He rated just behind Torri Hunter in ESPN’s zone rating as well as a rate2 of 106*, according to Baseball Prospectus. He will be a vast improvement over Dave Roberts who likely would have been their starting center fielder. He also won his first Gold Glove, for what its worth.

Given the 5-year $90 million contract the Angels gave Torri Hunter, who is two years older and when compared with the two, 5-year deals handed out last off-season to center fielders Juan Pierre ($45 million) and Gary Matthews Jr. ($50 million), this deal isn’t that bad when viewed within the framework of the open market.

Furthermore, with the departure of Barry Bonds, the Giants needed to make a splash or they would have lost a lot of fans and for a team that finished 5^th in the NL in attendance in 2007, the cost may have been greater had they not signed a player to improve the team’s hopes for 2008.

The Giants will still very, very likely finish last in the NL West, but despite what some are saying, I see this as a decent move for a team that needs a pulse.

 

*Rate2 is a defensive measure that calculates put-outs and assists relative to league average, adjusts it to a 162-game schedule and sets it so 100 is league average.