What’s the Word? Tampa Bay Rays Aim to Edge Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays signed outfielder Cliff Floyd to a 1-Year $2.75 million contract with $2 million in incentives. Floyd will get partial play-time on both outfield corners, splitting time with OF Rocco Baldelli and Jonny Gomes and may also see some time at DH. Floyd, 35, spent 2007 with the Chicago Cubs, hitting .284/.373/.422 with 9 home runs in 282 AB.

With this move, the Rays have what looks like a nice mix of cheap, effective veteran talent to go along with a competitive core of young players with a lot of upside and this may be the season that we’ve all been expecting from them since the birth of the franchise. We’ve been watching them for a while, always thinking, “they’ll be good one of these days.” We may get a glimpse of that this season.

I’m not saying they’ll de-throne the Yankees or the Red Sox any time soon. They lack the financial resources to do that at this time. It may be possible some day should the team begin to see progress and build up a fanbase and revenue to lock up some of their young talent but for now, they should have their eyes dead-set on third place. I think they can do it.

They have to beat the always-slightly-above-average-at-all-positions Toronto Blue Jays, who generally finish in third give or take. They are always good but never have quite what it takes to make a play-off berth.

Let’s start by comparing the two teams rotations and back end of their bullpens with some loose 2008 projections provided.

Tampa Bay Rays

1. Scott Kazmir, LHP – 200 IP – 3.50 ERA – 220 K – 90 BB
2. James Shields, RHP – 200 IP – 4.00 ERA – 150 K – 60 BB
3. Matt Garza, RHP – 180 IP – 3.90 ERA – 160 K – 60 BB
4. Edwin Jackson, RHP – 150IP – 5.00 ERA – 120 K – 80BB
5. Andy Sonnanstine, LHP – 120 IP – 4.90 ERA – 90K – 40BB

Bullpen

1. CL – Troy Percival – 50 IP – 3.50 ERA – 40 K – 15 BB – 26 SV
2. SU – Dan Wheeler – 70 IP – 3.00 ERA – 60 K – 20 BB
3. SU – Al Reyes – 60 IP – 3.80 ERA – 60 IP – 20 BB

The top of the rotation is solid, with Kazmir capable of posting ace numbers. Last season, he messed around with his mechanics early in the season, but went back to just pitching and his numbers improved dramatically later on in the season. I see Shields as a candidate to regress in 2008, but his 2007 was impressive. The question will be whether or not the control-artist can maintain that high of a strikeout rate with a change-up. He won’t be walking anyone, that’s for sure. Garza will enter the rotation from the beginning of the season and the only worry will be how his arm holds up under a heavier workload, but he should be good for a 3.60 – 4.00 ERA and he will be closely monitored. With guys like Jackson and Sonnanstine, they may only remain in the rotation as long as they’re able to hold down the young guns with guys like Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and Jacob McGee surely knocking, although the latter two are still a ways away. Beware, David Price is coming soon.

As for the bullpen, Percival is a big health risk, having missed all of 2006, but he pitched 40 quality innings in 2007, so he may be a Joe Borowski-type closer for them. I think Reyes will pitch as he did in 2007 and Wheeler will pitch more in line with his 2006 numbers since he won’t be moved around as often as in 2007. Beyond those three, they have Eduardo Morlan, who they got in the Garza-Young trade–I think he’ll step in and make an impact in 2008–but not much else.

Here is Toronto’s rotation for 2008:

1. Roy Halladay, RHP – 220 IP – 3.50 ERA – 130 K – 40 BB
2. AJ Burnett, RHP – 160 IP – 3.60 ERA – 160 K – 60 BB
3. Dustin McGowan, RHP – 190 IP – 4.00 ERA – 140 K – 60 BB
4. Gustavo Chacin, LHP – 140 IP – 4.90 ERA – 90 K – 60 BB
5. Jesse Litsch, RHP – 160 IP – 4.60 ERA – 100 K – 60 BB

Bullpen

1. CL – BJ Ryan, LHP – 70 IP – 2.40 ERA – 90 K – 30 BB – 35 SV
2. SU – Jeremy Accardo, RHP – 70 IP – 2.90 ERA – 60 K – 25 BB
3. SU – Casey Janssen, RHP – 60 IP – 3.80 ERA – 50 K – 20 BB

The rotation situation in Toronto is much more dire, with Doc Halladay and McGowan as the only guys who probably won’t miss time. If Burnett can remain healthy, they will have a solid #1 – 3, but even then, without much depth in the pipeline, they can’t afford to lose anyone in the rotation. In the bullpen, if Ryan comes back strong, it will give them a presence in the bullpen that Tampa Bay can not match.

Here is a comparison of the two teams lineups. I will put together what I think their starting nine should be, again, with my projections.

Tampa Bay Rays:

1. LF – Carl Crawford, L – .310/.360/.480 – 16 HR – 55 SB
2. RF – Rocco Baldelli, R – .290/.340/.460 – 15 HR – 20 SB (400 AB)
3. CF – B.J. Upton, R – .290/.360/.490 – 25 HR – 25 SB
4. 1B – Carlos Pena, L – .270/.390/.530 – 32 HR
5. DH – Cliff Floyd/Jonny Gomes, L/R – .270/.350/.440 – 10 HR / .240/.330/.460 – 12 HR
6. 3B – Evan Longoria, R – .280/.360/.470 – 18 HR (400 AB)
7. 2B – Akinori Iwamura, L – .290/.360/.420 – 12 HR
8. SS – Jason Barlett, R – .270/.340/.370 – 18 SB
9. C – Dioner Navarro, S – .250/.330/.350

It’s difficult to project some players, like Upton, who broke out in 2007, but struck out way too often to sustain that kind of success. His patience has always been good so if he continues to make strides, the sky is the limit. I see Pena as a big regression candidate and I don’t know how I feel about listing him with even as many as 32 home runs but the man can hit. I’m a huge fan of Longoria and I say, the sooner he’s up the better. He is my pick for AL Rookie of the Year. I also like Navarro, as a former Dodger, and he may just turn the corner after a strong second half in 2007. This is a team that is very well-balanced, looks pretty strong on paper and has a lot of upside.

The Toronto Blue Jays:

1. SS – David Eckstein, R – .290/.350/.360 – 1 HR
2. CF – Vernon Wells, R – .280/.330/.460 – 23 HR
3. RF – Alex Rios, R – .300/.350/.500 – 26 HR – 15 SB
4. DH – Frank Thomas, R – .250/.370/.520 – 25 HR (400 AB)
5. 3B – Troy Glaus, R – .255/.350/.480 – 30 HR
6. 1B – Lyle Overbay, R – .270/.350/.450 – 15 HR
7. LF – Adam Lind, L – .280/.350/.470 – 22 HR
8. 2B – Aaron Hill, R – .290/.340/.440 – 12 HR
9. C – Greg Zaun, S – .240/.310/.380 – 8 HR

While Toronto’s lineup has more power than Tampa’s, they are also a very right-handed heavy team and following a lot of poor performances in 2007 from guys like Wells, Lind and Overbay, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt looking for improvement. Also, they’ll need Glaus and Thomas to stay healthy. Toronto has a lot of question marks here and if Overbay fails to recover from his injury or Wells remains his usual mediocre self, they’ll be in trouble.

Defensively, Toronto rated the best in baseball according to defensive efficiency, while Tampa Bay was dead-lastin 2007. Tampa will not be fielding the same defense this season though. With Longoria stepping in at third (I think plus defender) and Iwamura relieving Upton at second, they will be much better off. Also, the additions of Barlett and a healthy Bardelli will bolster the defense. I think the Rays have a chance to at least be in the middle of the pack.

With that, look for Tampa Bay to beat out the Toronto Blue Jays in 2008 thanks to a break out or two (I say Evan Longoria and Matt Garza) along with the rest of their core of young players, supported by a Pena and a Percival. They will be a fun team to watch in 2008.