Quick Hits

Curt Schilling calls out another great, after A-Rod (bush-league), Barry Bonds (cheater) and now Roger Clemens (cheater). I saw the story on ESPN and had to read the article before jumping to conclusions, but I went in pissed on Roger’s behalf. After reading it, I have to admit, I agree with him on a lot of points. If anyone was accused falsely, they need to take it to court. NO ONE HAS, ever. The article is very well written and makes a compelling argument. Definitely worth a read. I truly hope he never gets connected to HGH, even if with a prescription and an injury. Schilling, like Clemens, was famous for intensive off-season work-out programs that is often attributed to Clemens.

This whole steroid thing is ugly, but it’s something everyone has always known about. The Mitchell report didn’t tell us anything new, except Roger Clemens. The issue was staring us in the face, even Clemens. That one hurt, but it makes sense and it proves anyone could have done it, even once.

Our generations best hitter and pitcher got a little extra help.

I want to know, if an HGH prescription is legal, if used for medical healing purposes, then is HGH use before 2005 okay? It shouldn’t be promoted but its not illegal, like buying steroids off the black market or shady distributors like BALCO.

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Good read: Baseball Analyst’s Al Doyle points out why all but a handful of teams should avoid spending big money to make marginal improvement. I say save the money and invest it in the draft like Tampa has.

Andrew at True Blue LA explains why some teams can.

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I know this one has been linked a lot, but DRaysBay, a site I’ve begun to read and admire in the SB nation, has an interview with Robert “Voros” McCracken, formerly a big league consultant with the Boston Red Sox.

Better still is McCracken’s article on Defense Independent Pitching Statistics from Baseball Prospectus (circa 2001), which is a classic and a groundbreaking piece. If you haven’t read this one, or aren’t aware of these basic ideas, you’re in for an eye-opener.

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Let’s get some talent evaluation into the mix: John Sickels of Minor League Ball scouts Jacoby Ellsbury, Cameron Maybin and grades both Yankee Clemens-look-a-like Joba Chamberlain (not roids, just looks) and Clay Buchholz “A” prospects.

Who do you think is 1A?

A: I think Buchholz has proven himself for longer, but the ballpark will even out their numbers on the surface in 2008. Long term, it’s anyone’s guess.

Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Andy Pettitte Get Named in the Mitchell Report

Thursday morning, Senator George Mitchell released his report on steroid and other performance-enhancing substances in in Major League Baseball. In the release press conference before the world, Mitchell stated, “For more than a decade there has been widespread anabolic steroid use,” adding, “commissioners, club officials, the players’ association and players shares, to some extent, the responsibility for the steroids era.” Mitchell states that “each of the thirty clubs” have had players who have used steroids. Mitchell asked those in Major League Baseball to look to move forward and avoid punishing those implicated for past use.

Be that as it may, there will definitely be a massive public backlash with the often blood-thirsty media driving public opinion. As of now, reporting is going on all over the sports and news world, but little commentary has surfaced because few have read the report.

Mostly, people are clamoring over the list of names, which include many future Hall of Famers and current All-Stars as well as the unimpressive and ignored list of scrubs. Among the names listed, there were those with past links to steroid use, including Barry Bonds, Kevin Brown, Gary Sheffield, Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa and the late Ken Caminiti as well as new names such as most notably Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Miguel Tejada, Eric Gagne and Paul Lo Duca.

The list, even on the report, is far from comprehensive, so by no means do we have the full scope of the usage, but we are beginning to have an idea. Until we have the full grasp of the problem, the blame will just be passed from person to person, official to official.

The steroids era is largely believed to have begun in 1993, although use began as early as the late 1980’s with Jose Conseco and Mark McGwire, perhaps earlier. We will probably never know every name of every player who used steroids, but we have an idea of the effect it has had as countless offensive and pitching records have fallen.

Simply put, steroids and performance enhancers make you stronger, quicker, more alert and recover from work-outs and injury much faster. Players like Clemens and Bonds demonstrated what is capable when a great player gets on the juice, historically-superior performances become possible.

Will baseball take a hit from all of this? Maybe, but I think it would be a little naive of us to pretend like we didn’t know anything. There have been whispers and jokes as long as the bulging biceps and tape-measure homers were staring us in the face. I think we will talk about it, some will be wrongly and overly-harshly be judged and we will move on.

Will baseball recover? Yes, but it may take a little time and it may take a special performance, of an even greater historical sort, to lift us truly beyond this all.

San Francisco Giants, Aaron Rowand Ink 5-Year Deal

The San Francisco Giant have agreed to a 5-year $60 million contract with free-agent CF Aaron Rowand. Rowand is coming off of a career year in 2007 in which he hit .309/.374/.515 with 27 home runs for the NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies. The Giants finished in last place in the NL West in 2007 and hope that the addition of Rowand will improve an offense that will be without Barry Bonds for the first time since 1993.

How does Rowand project for the future and will he live up to his deal?

Rowand was a former first-round pick for the White Sox in 1998 and showed good power in the minor leagues, although his strike zone control was sub-par. This may explain while it took him a while to establish himself in the majors until 2004, his age 26 season, he broke out, hitting .310/.361/.544 with 24 home runs. He would then have two pedestrian seasons, one with the Sox, then one with the Phillies, OPSing .736 and .746, respectively. Despite Rowand’s impressive 2007 season, he got to play it in Citizen’s Bank Park, the best hitter’s park this side of Coors and his numbers reflected such as he hit .319/.380/.557 with 17 home runs at home and .299/.368/.475 with 10 home runs on the road.

Still, for a Giants team that was looking to head into 2008 with Randy Winn and Ray Durham as their best offensive players, Rowand, 30, stands to improve the club quite a bit, even if he hits closer to his 2007 road line. I see a .285/.350/.460 in his future with about 18 bombs.

Rowand will also improve the Giants team defense, as he rates well according to most quantitative measures as a center fielder. He rated just behind Torri Hunter in ESPN’s zone rating as well as a rate2 of 106*, according to Baseball Prospectus. He will be a vast improvement over Dave Roberts who likely would have been their starting center fielder. He also won his first Gold Glove, for what its worth.

Given the 5-year $90 million contract the Angels gave Torri Hunter, who is two years older and when compared with the two, 5-year deals handed out last off-season to center fielders Juan Pierre ($45 million) and Gary Matthews Jr. ($50 million), this deal isn’t that bad when viewed within the framework of the open market.

Furthermore, with the departure of Barry Bonds, the Giants needed to make a splash or they would have lost a lot of fans and for a team that finished 5^th in the NL in attendance in 2007, the cost may have been greater had they not signed a player to improve the team’s hopes for 2008.

The Giants will still very, very likely finish last in the NL West, but despite what some are saying, I see this as a decent move for a team that needs a pulse.

 

*Rate2 is a defensive measure that calculates put-outs and assists relative to league average, adjusts it to a 162-game schedule and sets it so 100 is league average.

Quick Hits

Only a few nights after I covered Kosuke Fukudome here at BA, he signs a 4-year $48 million contract with the Chicago Cubs. He will replace Jacque Jones in right field as well as providing a left-handed bat in a right hand heavy lineup. If the Cubs elect to keep Alfonso Soriano in the lead-off spot, Fukudome will probably bat second or maybe even third for the Cubs providing some on-base percentage at the top of the order. Here is a projected 2008 starting lineup for the Cubs:

Alfonso Soriano, RHB – LF

Kosuke Fukudome, LHB – RF

Derrek Lee, RHB – 1B

Aramis Lee, RHB – 3B

Mark Derosa, RHB – 2B

Geovany Soto, RHB – C

Felix Pie, LHB – CF

Ronny Cedeno, RHB – SS

I like this signing for the Cubs because they have a good power-hitting team all in all but lack on-base percentage to really hit with the big boys like the New York Mets, the Colorado Rockies and the Philadelphia Phillies. And, again, adding that extra left-handed bat will leave them less exposed late in games. Fukudome will also help the teams outfield defense. Can I just add in, am I the only one who thinks Alfonso Soriano will be a good outfielder in his career?

The dollars aren’t out of line but four years, ages 31 through 35, could be some trouble later on in the contract. It’s all too early to guess until we see how Fukudome’s power and plate discipline translate here in the states.

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The Colorado Rockies gave Aaron Cook an extension worth $34.5 million to keep the righty pitching in altitude through 2011, with a mutual option for 2012.

Cook has found success pitching in Coors these past few years but personally, no matter what the groundball tendencies (2.5 GO/AO), I wouldn’t be in that much of a hurry to give a man with 3.3 K/9 that much money.

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Lastly, David Segui comes clean for taking steroids during his career, “I have nothing to hide. I have no problem talking about what I have done, but I never want any other players to think I was out there talking about their business.”

I like that Segui comes clean. With all the finger-pointing that will likely be happening in the coming weeks with the upcoming release of the Mitchell Report, it’s nice to see a player maintain his code of silence. I have my opinions on the steroid issue but honestly, if more players just came clean and admitted that they used steroids, fewer players like Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Raphael Palmeiro and Jason Giambi would have to take the brunt of the blame.

I think every fan has always known, all along, that at least 50% of the Major Leagues had, at one point, tried steroids to help their career. It has always been a suspicion and the players kept confirming its widespread use, although never addressing it. Everyone who is accused is just as likely guilty as not, but we keep getting lame excuse after another and move on until we get big names. If we go about it the way that we have, pointing fingers and punishing those who come clean, we will never know to what extent steroid use was going on. We will never have closure and everything that has happened over the past decade and a half will be mired in suspicion.

If Paul Byrd is on HGH, no one is safe.