New York Yankees Extend Cano; C.C. Sabathia Extension in the Works?

Yesterday, with RHP James Shields receiving an extension from the Tampa Bay Rays, I published “The List” of players that still have less than three years service time (or have yet to go to arbitration), but have performed at a high enough level where organizations should explore extending them long-term. Today, the New York Yankees have offered an extension to one such player, as 2B-L Robinson Cano agreed to terms on a four-year $30 million extension with two club options that could keep the second baseman in New York through 2013.

Cano, 25, has been a very productive hitter in New York since he debuted in 2005, compiling a career .314/.346/.489 line with 48 home runs in 1621 at-bats. After hitting .342 in 2006, Cano followed that campaign up with a good offensive season in 2007, hitting .306/.353./.488 with 19 home runs in 617 at-bats.

Defensively, Cano has seen steady improvement as he has learned to man the position. His range, particularly, has improved and that has been evident as he is now regarded as one of the better defenders at his positions by many in baseball. The statistics back up this improvement as well as Cano has seen improvement scoring -4, 13, then 26 fielding runs above average (FRAA) according to Baseball Prospectus and rated as the fourth best second baseman in baseball according to ESPN’s Zone rating and third in the AL in 2007. This is a solid improvement by Cano and represents a very diverse skill set for the young second baseman.

Cano will be entering his prime in the next few seasons as he learns the league and fills out physically. It was a good move for the Yankees to lock up the second baseman, securing as many as three of his free agent seasons and as long as into his age 31 season.

This off-season was a particularly weak one, as far as available free agents go and the league has adjusted very ably as teams now have explored alternative ways to procure and secure talent, with high profile trades becoming more regular along with creative contract extensions. This represents an economic savvy in baseball that was certainly missing in the 2006 off-season when teams tossed around lucrative, long-term deals to veterans and marginal players (see: Los Angeles center fielders), as if trying to will their way into contention. I really like this trend and the teams that fail to make adjustments will really suffer.

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The Cleveland Indians have reportedly offered LHP C.C. Sabathia a long-term deal, although the details have yet to be announced. If the Indians successfully extend the 2007 Cy Young Award winner, this will represent a big boost to their long-term plans as one of the American Leagues premier teams as they lack a true ace or any on the way in the farm. I like RHP Fausto Carmona alright and he also made “The List,” but I want to see another dominating season out of him and Adam Miller needs to be healthy, pitch in the bigs before he earns any real credit. If Sabathia agrees to a contract, and he seems to want to, it will likely be on the Indians and General Manager Mark Shapiro’s terms, probably no more than five-years and $73 million deal the Houston Astros signed with RHP Roy Oswalt.

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The Atlanta Braves have reached agreement with RHP Rafael Soriano on a two-year $9 million extension with $500,000 in incentives. Soriano has been a great relief pitcher dating back to his days in Seattle. His only concern is his health, but having pitched 72 innings in 2007, a two-year deal is hardly a big risk for his upside.

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Finally, I’ve already linked up to a scouting report on newly acquired Florida Marlins CF-R Cameron Maybin before from John Sickels Minor League Ball–one of my favorite sites. However, with players like Maybin who are mostly relying on tools and not skills yet, its always good to get a variety of sources and scouting reports to get a more complete picture. Kevin Goldstein, of Baseball Prospectus, reviews the Florida Marlins Top-11 prospects and rates Maybin as their lone five-star player. In the review Goldstein says:

“The Good: When it comes to tools, Maybin is Home Depot. He has outstanding size and athleticism, projecting to hit for average and power, while also being a total burner. He effortlessly covers ground in center field, and his arm is outstanding. He’s shown a solid approach at the plate, has great instincts on the base paths, and backs up his natural ability with a strong work ethic.”

I’ve been a fan of Maybin since he was drafted 10th overall in the very outfield-rich 2005 draft and am excited to see how he will hold up in 2008 as the Marlins likely starting center fielder. He is strong, very athletic and should play a solid center field but I would like to see him develop more in AAA, but the Marlins don’t seem to want to wait for that. He will have to develop his pitch recognition at the big league level.

Player of the Week: Jay Bruce

Cincinnati Reds CF-L Jay Bruce is 2008’s prospect of the year. Baseball America hasn’t published its top 100 prospects yet, but when it does, Jay Bruce will be #1. When I publish my top 25 list (coming soon!), he will be #1.  He is already the number one prospect according to multiple sources, including Minor League Baseball (check the video provided to see live footage).

Bruce was selected 12th overall in the 2005 out of Westbrook high school in an amateur draft the was rich in high school outfield prospects, including OF-R Justin Upton (1st overall–Arizona), Cameron Maybin (10th overall–Detroit), Andrew McCutchen (11th overall–Pittsburgh), CF-L Jacoby Ellsbury (23rd overall–Boston), and Colby Rasmus (28th overall-St. Louis). Bruce outperformed all of his peers, hitting a combined .319/.375/.587 with 26 home runs in 521 at-bats between advanced A ball and AAA, never slugging less than .567 (AAA), as a 20 year-old, on his way to earning the Midwest League MVP award as well as Baseball America’s Player of the Year Award in 2007.

Most scouts would still rate Upton as the top talent out of the 2005 draft, but none will argue that Bruce could be every bit the superstar and contend for the top spot out of that talented crop of players. As much as Bruce is known for his talent, he is also regarded as having a great work ethic with excellent character and makeup, as Cincinnati General Manager Wayne Krivski notes, “He’s got a nice package of skills and ability to go along with that makeup…He’s 20 years old and having success in Triple-A…but for as much talent as he has, his family deserves all the credit for the quality person he is. Something like that cannot be quantified.”

In a recent ranking of Cincinatti’s top prospects, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus says:

“Bruce is loaded with both tools and skills. He’s a fantastic hitter who is seemingly incapable of light contact, projecting as a .300+ hitter who approaches 100 extra-base hits annually. He has average to slightly-above speed and has proven to be surprisingly capable in center field, while also showcasing a strong arm. He supplements his natural abilities with strong makeup and an outstanding work ethic.”

I’m not certain I would agree with the 100 extra basehits right off the bat–that’s like saying he’ll become Albert Pujols–but this is high praise for such a young player, and Cincinatti’s faith in Bruce led to their trading of CF-L Josh Hamilton, making room for Bruce in centerfield for 2008. Bruce will likely see a lot of time in center for the Reds in 2008, and while some scouts question his ability to stick in center beyond the next couple seasons, his hitting will be good enough to play in either outfield corner, where he will likely end up as a rightfielder once OF-L Ken Griffey Jr departs.

Beyond that, its anyones guess what kind of player Bruce will become. The sky is the limit. I see a player who will be a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate who hits 35-40 home runs in his peak.  His plate discipline has never been fantastic, but as a superior hitter at a young age, those skills will develop at the big league level as he learns the league. For this season, I see about 400 AB’s with a .280/.330/.480 line with close to 20 home runs.  I’m assuming his pitch selection will improve a little, even at the big league level. 

The Reds have a lot to be excited for in 2008 and with flawed teams in Milwaukee and Chicago competing for the NL Central title in 2008, the Reds are a solid sleeper pick for 2008, provided they get the type of production expected from players like Bruce.

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Baseball Prospectus’s Will Carroll weighs in on young pitcher usage on the Lohud Yankees Blog. The New York Yankees (RHP Joba Chamberlain, Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedyare in trouble) as well as the Tampa Bay Rays (LHP Scott Kazmirand RHP James Shields, Matt Garza) because young pitchers cannot pitch a lot of innings without a lot of risk involved according to the Year After Effect. Carroll suggests using Chamberlain in the rotation for 100 innings, then moving him to the bullpen. Makes sense, isn”t going to happen.

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The longest tenured General Manager in baseball, Kevin Towers, received a contract extension, to remain in San Diego through 2010. Most importantly, Towers has completed deals to keep sluggers 1B-L Adrian Gonzalezand RHP Jake Peavy and Chris Young in San Diego. The Peavy extensionrepresents a huge step in remaining in contention in the NL West where the Pads have largely been underdogs in recent years but have still managed to contend year after year.

Quick Hits

Curt Schilling calls out another great, after A-Rod (bush-league), Barry Bonds (cheater) and now Roger Clemens (cheater). I saw the story on ESPN and had to read the article before jumping to conclusions, but I went in pissed on Roger’s behalf. After reading it, I have to admit, I agree with him on a lot of points. If anyone was accused falsely, they need to take it to court. NO ONE HAS, ever. The article is very well written and makes a compelling argument. Definitely worth a read. I truly hope he never gets connected to HGH, even if with a prescription and an injury. Schilling, like Clemens, was famous for intensive off-season work-out programs that is often attributed to Clemens.

This whole steroid thing is ugly, but it’s something everyone has always known about. The Mitchell report didn’t tell us anything new, except Roger Clemens. The issue was staring us in the face, even Clemens. That one hurt, but it makes sense and it proves anyone could have done it, even once.

Our generations best hitter and pitcher got a little extra help.

I want to know, if an HGH prescription is legal, if used for medical healing purposes, then is HGH use before 2005 okay? It shouldn’t be promoted but its not illegal, like buying steroids off the black market or shady distributors like BALCO.

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Good read: Baseball Analyst’s Al Doyle points out why all but a handful of teams should avoid spending big money to make marginal improvement. I say save the money and invest it in the draft like Tampa has.

Andrew at True Blue LA explains why some teams can.

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I know this one has been linked a lot, but DRaysBay, a site I’ve begun to read and admire in the SB nation, has an interview with Robert “Voros” McCracken, formerly a big league consultant with the Boston Red Sox.

Better still is McCracken’s article on Defense Independent Pitching Statistics from Baseball Prospectus (circa 2001), which is a classic and a groundbreaking piece. If you haven’t read this one, or aren’t aware of these basic ideas, you’re in for an eye-opener.

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Let’s get some talent evaluation into the mix: John Sickels of Minor League Ball scouts Jacoby Ellsbury, Cameron Maybin and grades both Yankee Clemens-look-a-like Joba Chamberlain (not roids, just looks) and Clay Buchholz “A” prospects.

Who do you think is 1A?

A: I think Buchholz has proven himself for longer, but the ballpark will even out their numbers on the surface in 2008. Long term, it’s anyone’s guess.

Cabrera, Willis to Detroit for Six Prospects

Word is the Florida Marlins are sending Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for a six-player package, including super-prospect OF Cameron Maybin and LHS Andrew Miller along with four fringe prospects.

This seems like a pretty solid package for the Marlins. One can never be certain what other offers were on the table for the Marlins with the two LA clubs, but neither seemed willing to offer multiple, upper-echelon young players.

In Maybin the Marlins get the Tiger’s first round pick in 2005. He projects as an athletic, speed-power outfielder with a high ceiling–his knowledge of the strike zone still needs work. He will likely start the year in AAA and step in to center or right field for the Marlins by mid-season. Miller was the consensus top-talent in the 2006 draft, but fell to the Tigers at 6th overall due to his high asking price. Miller pitched out of the rotation for Detroit in 2007, but his command was never where it needed to be and he struggled at the big league level. Still, the 6′6″ lefty projects as a potential ace and should make major improvement this season, his second full season of pro-ball.

Of course, the Tiger’s acquisition of Cabrera is huge news as he will likely step in to replace Brandon Inge at third and bolster an already strong offensive team trying to dethrone the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. I don’t have to sit here and go over how good Cabrera is. His numbers speak for themselves and won’t be affected playing in spacious Comerica park as Dolphin stadium is also vast. If anything, Cabrera will instantly become a perennial MVP candidate, stepping into a strong contending team.

The Marlins also included Dontrelle Willis into package, shedding his salary, which will increase in his final year of arbitration. Willis was included, like Mike Lowell in the Boston deal, as a player coming off of a bad year. Willis, as a pitcher, is durable (200+ IP last three seasons) but relies too heavily on his deceptive delivery and not enough on pure stuff nor on command of his pitches but a move to a new team and a good ballpark may see him return to a league average lefty starter.

I see this as a major boost for the Tigers who now are the team to beat in the AL Central and a decent return for the Marlins, netting two potential super-stars. I have to wonder if they might have been able to get more and should have in a deal with the Dodgers. The “other four guys” included in the deal don’t project for much beyond a decent starting pitching prospect and a decent relief prospect as well as 27 year-old catcher.