Rockies Extend Tulowitzki: 6-Years $30 Million

The Colorado Rockies have reportedly agreed to a contract extension with SS-R Troy Tulowitzki on a record six-year $30 million contract with a club option for 2014. This deal represents the largest contract for a player with only one-year of service time, eclipsing the six-year $23.45 million contract signed by CF-L Grady Sizemore in 2006.

Big ups to General Manager Dan O’Dowd and the Colorado Rockies front office for getting this deal done. They have managed to give themselves cost certainty through Tulowitzki’s arbitration years and have cut into his first two seasons of free agency provided they pick up their club option. As a result, Tulo won’t become a free agent until he turns 30.

Still, for the kid who was drafted 7th overall out of Long Beach State in 2005, Tulowitzki must be happy and he sure earned his new contract. Tulowitzki is coming off a stellar rookie season where he hit .291/.359/.479 with 24 home runs and 99 RBI in 609 at-bats. Tulowitzki also made a name for himself as a wizard with the glove and rated as the second best shortstop in baseball according to defensive zone rating and finished the season 24 fielding runs above average (FRAA). He finished in second place in rookie of the year voting behind 3B-R Ryan Braun of Milwaukee.

Regardless of what happens with LF-R Matt Holliday, whether he departs as a free agent following the 2009 season, Tulowitzki is exactly the type of player an organization wants to lock up longterm and build around as his defense at a middle of the diamond position will keep his value high. The only concern is his road performance as his he hit only .256/.327/.393 with 9 home runs, compared to .326/.392/.568 with 15 home runs at home. This disparity is troubling, but isn’t too much cause for concern as it was his rookie season.

All in all, this is a great deal for the Rockies and their fans.

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The St. Louis Cardinals have given C-R Yadier Molina a four-year extension with a club option for 2012. Like the Tulowitzki deal, this will keep the catcher with the Cardinals through one or two of his free agent seasons. Molina, living up to the family reputation, has consistently been one of the best defensive catchers in baseball although he has never hit too well.

The financial terms have not yet been disclosed but Molina likely is earning less than $20 million over the life of the deal and again, cost and position certainty are important for teams, particularly at a position like catcher where a working relation with a pitching staff is key.

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The Chicago White Sox have agreed to terms with RHP Octavio Dotel to a two-year $11 million deal. Dotel has battled arm injuries and was limited to 30.2 IP in 2007 and missed most of 2005-06 as well. This is another long-shot attempt by the White Sox at contending in 2008 through taking risk and giving a player who probably won’t pitch over the life of the contract in the hopes of getting something out of him in 2008.

I’m not buying it.

Oakland A’s Rebuilding, Trade Nick Swisher to ChiSox

I have to apologize for the long break. Not even a happy New Years message. I hope everyone had a great holiday season. Regular posting shall resume. On to the A’s.

The Oakland Athletics have agreed to send Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox for CF Ryan Sweeney, LHP Gio Gonzalez and RHP Fautino De Los Santos. With this move, the A’s have committed to their rebuilding effort fully having traded their two biggest assets in Haren and Swisher, both young and cheap, but neither will fit into their plans for 2010 when they move into their new stadium in Fremont.

Swisher, 27, will be entering his prime and a shift from a pitcher’s park to US Cellular field, a home run hitter’s park, will bode well for him. A solid, on-base driven .900 OPS isn’t out of the question and will provide a significant move for a White Sox team that ranked last in the majors in OBP in 2007. He is set to play center field unless the White Sox pull the trigger and trade 1B Paul Konerko.

Of the package the A’s received, Gonzalez is the prize. The lefty combines a fastball that sits 92-95 with a curve ball with sharp downward break that sits in the low 80’s. Both are regarded as plus pitches. He also has a change up that is quickly improving and will be an important pitch for him at the big league level. He will likely start the season in AAA with the hopes of getting a shot at the rotation in 2008.

Fautino De Los Santos looks like a good find to help bolster Oakland’s lower minors. He will likely start the season in AA.

Ryan Sweeney doesn’t offer much promise as a major leaguer and that’s been fairly evident from his two brief stints. His best season was an .802 OPS in 2006 but he took a step back in 07. Still, he may be able to provide Oakland with a young, cheap outfielder for the years of rebuilding and beyond.

When all is said and done, the White Sox are a little misguided to think they will be able to beat the Cleveland Indians and the Detriot Tigers, but Swisher is a nice addition provided they believe they will compete.

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Quick Hits

Rumors are nothing more than rumors but a Paul Konerko for Howie Kendrick and Ervin Santana would be a bad move for the Angels. Kendrick is young, cheap and probably already a better hitter than Konerko at second base. Here’s saying Kendrick is the second best 2B in the majors after Chase Utley. The Angels do need a power bat but that would also make defensive wizard 1B Casey Kotchman expendable.

If I were a Major League GM, I’d take a flier on Ervin Santana who would benefit from a change of scenery.

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The Florida Marlins agreed to terms with Jorge Cantu on a minor league contract. I like this move because Florida is really proving to their fan base that they are committed to winning in Florida. Between Jose Castillo and Cantu, if you combine all their counting stats and add up their rate stats, they might exceed Miguel Cabrera’s production at third.

San Francisco Giants, Aaron Rowand Ink 5-Year Deal

The San Francisco Giant have agreed to a 5-year $60 million contract with free-agent CF Aaron Rowand. Rowand is coming off of a career year in 2007 in which he hit .309/.374/.515 with 27 home runs for the NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies. The Giants finished in last place in the NL West in 2007 and hope that the addition of Rowand will improve an offense that will be without Barry Bonds for the first time since 1993.

How does Rowand project for the future and will he live up to his deal?

Rowand was a former first-round pick for the White Sox in 1998 and showed good power in the minor leagues, although his strike zone control was sub-par. This may explain while it took him a while to establish himself in the majors until 2004, his age 26 season, he broke out, hitting .310/.361/.544 with 24 home runs. He would then have two pedestrian seasons, one with the Sox, then one with the Phillies, OPSing .736 and .746, respectively. Despite Rowand’s impressive 2007 season, he got to play it in Citizen’s Bank Park, the best hitter’s park this side of Coors and his numbers reflected such as he hit .319/.380/.557 with 17 home runs at home and .299/.368/.475 with 10 home runs on the road.

Still, for a Giants team that was looking to head into 2008 with Randy Winn and Ray Durham as their best offensive players, Rowand, 30, stands to improve the club quite a bit, even if he hits closer to his 2007 road line. I see a .285/.350/.460 in his future with about 18 bombs.

Rowand will also improve the Giants team defense, as he rates well according to most quantitative measures as a center fielder. He rated just behind Torri Hunter in ESPN’s zone rating as well as a rate2 of 106*, according to Baseball Prospectus. He will be a vast improvement over Dave Roberts who likely would have been their starting center fielder. He also won his first Gold Glove, for what its worth.

Given the 5-year $90 million contract the Angels gave Torri Hunter, who is two years older and when compared with the two, 5-year deals handed out last off-season to center fielders Juan Pierre ($45 million) and Gary Matthews Jr. ($50 million), this deal isn’t that bad when viewed within the framework of the open market.

Furthermore, with the departure of Barry Bonds, the Giants needed to make a splash or they would have lost a lot of fans and for a team that finished 5^th in the NL in attendance in 2007, the cost may have been greater had they not signed a player to improve the team’s hopes for 2008.

The Giants will still very, very likely finish last in the NL West, but despite what some are saying, I see this as a decent move for a team that needs a pulse.

 

*Rate2 is a defensive measure that calculates put-outs and assists relative to league average, adjusts it to a 162-game schedule and sets it so 100 is league average.

Player of the Week: Kosuke Fukudome

Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, 30, has decided against playing for the Yoriumi Giants in Japan in favor of pursuing a career in Major League Baseball. It is believed the Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres are trying to sign the left-handed hitting right fielder.

Fukudome was the Nippon League’s 2006 Central League MVP, posting an impressive .351/.438/.653 line, along with 47 doubles and 31 home runs in 496 ABs. An elbow injury kept the star from playing the final two months of the 2007 season but he still managed a .294/.443/.520 line with 13 homers in 269 ABs.

What can we reasonably expect from Fukudome here in the states? As we’ve learned from many of the Japanese stars who have made the trip across the Pacific, we can’t count on the power to translate at the big league level as the strength of competition in Japan is not as great as here in the US and their ballparks tend to be smaller. None the less, Baseball Prospectus’s Clay Davenport conducted an excellent study comparing the Japanese leagues with the majors and found the level of competition to be “consistently rated as tougher than the American Triple-A leagues.”

For that reason, I find it interesting that the power has translated as poorly in the US as it has with the players who have made the trip. This has been the case most recently with Tampa Bay Rays infielder Akinori Iwamura who averaged 35 home runs in Japan from 2004-2006. In his Major League debut, managed all of 7 long balls, although his .285/.359/.411 line will play at second base where he will likely start in 2008. I see Iwamura as capable of doubling that figure in 2008 provided he plays regularly.

The only Japanese player to hit for superior power has been Hideki Matsui, who averaged 43 home runs in Japan from 2000-2002 with a career high 50 in 2002 before coming to the majors. Matsui has averaged close to 24 home runs in each of his full seasons in the majors with a career high 31 in 2004 but has managed to be a solid corner outfielder for the Yankees over his run with them.

I can’t expect any more than 10-15 home runs from Fukudome in 2008 but I wouldn’t be astonished if he hit close to 20 if he signs with the Cubs or White Sox. His real strength lies in his excellent plate discipline where he will be able to on-base enough to retain a lot of value. He has a smooth line-drive swing that could lead to a ton of doubles as well. I see a batting average around .300 with an on-base percentage between .370 – .390. He would be best served as a lead-off hitter based on his batting eye and likely lack of power.

He also features a plus arm with great throwing accuracy which will play well in right field. He won’t feature the speed or overall athleticism of Ichiro Suzuki, but he will be a solid right fielder having won four gold gloves in Japan and will probably make a decent run at a rookie of the year award.

For more information, check out Baseball Prospectus’s Mike Plugh’s article on Kosuke Fukudome—subscription required.