Afternoon Links: Clemens/Pettitte Drama, NL West Defense and some Football

I always believed Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte were buddies. They were both Texans, they worked out together and they both went to Houston to pitch in 2004. I guess, according to an anonymous friend, they really weren’t friends.

I find it interesting how the media weaves stories, sometimes falsely, because its fun to think about for fans (and it sells papers). Maybe, they’re more friends than we think and this is yet another example of media story telling, maybe the steroid thing ruins friendships (see McNamee v. Clemens), but either way, we as fans, sure buy into all this fluff.

They’re both still great pitchers and Clemens may be the greatest ever.

Funny, though, that there’s all this controversy.  Clemens admitted to everything, steroids, everything.  (All Talk Sports)

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69 Days until opening day, reports Obscure Sports Quarterly (a fellow Bruin). I can’t wait.

In other news, the Baltimore Orioles suck.

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Rox Girl of Purple Row breaks down the defense in the NL West in 2008. She’s a homer, predicting the Rockies to vastly outperform the AZ Diamondbacks defensively (I’m not so sure), but it’s a good read.

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Other Sports (They Exist):

UCLA Football is Finally Legit with the hiring of Norm Chow as offensive coordinator, reports Larry Brown. I love it. (Larry Brown Sports).

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Indianapolis Colts headcoach Tony Dungy Can’t Quit Colts. For a well-known homophobe, was this headline a coincidence? asks The Big Lead.

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Bret Favre, No Super For You! Best Use of Photoshop. HA! (Epic Carnival)

Rockies Extend Tulowitzki: 6-Years $30 Million

The Colorado Rockies have reportedly agreed to a contract extension with SS-R Troy Tulowitzki on a record six-year $30 million contract with a club option for 2014. This deal represents the largest contract for a player with only one-year of service time, eclipsing the six-year $23.45 million contract signed by CF-L Grady Sizemore in 2006.

Big ups to General Manager Dan O’Dowd and the Colorado Rockies front office for getting this deal done. They have managed to give themselves cost certainty through Tulowitzki’s arbitration years and have cut into his first two seasons of free agency provided they pick up their club option. As a result, Tulo won’t become a free agent until he turns 30.

Still, for the kid who was drafted 7th overall out of Long Beach State in 2005, Tulowitzki must be happy and he sure earned his new contract. Tulowitzki is coming off a stellar rookie season where he hit .291/.359/.479 with 24 home runs and 99 RBI in 609 at-bats. Tulowitzki also made a name for himself as a wizard with the glove and rated as the second best shortstop in baseball according to defensive zone rating and finished the season 24 fielding runs above average (FRAA). He finished in second place in rookie of the year voting behind 3B-R Ryan Braun of Milwaukee.

Regardless of what happens with LF-R Matt Holliday, whether he departs as a free agent following the 2009 season, Tulowitzki is exactly the type of player an organization wants to lock up longterm and build around as his defense at a middle of the diamond position will keep his value high. The only concern is his road performance as his he hit only .256/.327/.393 with 9 home runs, compared to .326/.392/.568 with 15 home runs at home. This disparity is troubling, but isn’t too much cause for concern as it was his rookie season.

All in all, this is a great deal for the Rockies and their fans.

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The St. Louis Cardinals have given C-R Yadier Molina a four-year extension with a club option for 2012. Like the Tulowitzki deal, this will keep the catcher with the Cardinals through one or two of his free agent seasons. Molina, living up to the family reputation, has consistently been one of the best defensive catchers in baseball although he has never hit too well.

The financial terms have not yet been disclosed but Molina likely is earning less than $20 million over the life of the deal and again, cost and position certainty are important for teams, particularly at a position like catcher where a working relation with a pitching staff is key.

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The Chicago White Sox have agreed to terms with RHP Octavio Dotel to a two-year $11 million deal. Dotel has battled arm injuries and was limited to 30.2 IP in 2007 and missed most of 2005-06 as well. This is another long-shot attempt by the White Sox at contending in 2008 through taking risk and giving a player who probably won’t pitch over the life of the contract in the hopes of getting something out of him in 2008.

I’m not buying it.

Arbitration Underway: Early Winners and Losers

Contracts are being signed left and right as organizations and players are coming to terms on short-term contracts, smartly avoiding the arbitration process. As much as most players try to keep the “business” of baseball in mind, going through the process often leaves a bad taste in players’ mouths, so organizations strive to appease their players by avoiding the process altogether. In some cases, when the figures being thrown around do not agree, arbitration is inevitable. Here is a list of some winners and losers.

Winners:

Oakland Athletics: We all know the A’s are rebuilding by now. For that reason, they need to keep risk to a minimum. Where before, Billy Beane and company were considering locking up closer RHP Huston Street to a long-term deal, having suffered an elbow injury in 2007, they wisely locked him up to a one-year deal. Likewise, the A’s agreed to terms on a one-year deal with RHP Joe Blanton. The A’s have been traditionally very good at securing young talent–RHP Rich Harden, RHP Dan Haren, OF-S Nick Swisher–that is not their priority for now. If the A’s elect to trade either player, locking them up to longer deals will be up to their new teams.

Carlos Pena: When journeymen strike it rich, it’s usually not a great idea (see: Gary Matthews Jr.), but 1B-L Carlos Pena showed in 2007 that he can hit, mashing to a .282/.411/.627 clip with 46 home runs in 490 AB. That performance was a shocker to everyone in baseball and earned Pena the Comeback Player of the Year award. The 30-year old slugger earned every penny of his $24.125 million deal.

Colorado Rockies: After LF-R Matt Holliday, Scott Boras rejected a 5-year $60 million contract to keep the MVP runner-up in Coors, Dan O’Dowd has given Holliday a 2-year $23 million deal, keeping the slugger in uniform through his walk-year in 2009. In this regard, the Rockies have done the next best thing aside from giving Holliday an extension, they’re keeping him happy. Now, when it comes time to attempt to negotiate an extension following the 2008 season, Boras and Holliday will remember this.

Losers:

Kevin Youkilis: The Red Sox and 1B-R Kevin Youkilis were unable to come to terms on a contract with Youkilis asking for $3.7 million and the Red Sox offering $2.5 million. As a corner infielder with only a little bit of pop, Youkilis should be content starting for a championship team. Even if he is liked by the fans, has been a key contributor, the Sox have already shown that corner infielders aren’t hard to come by and aren’t difficult to replace when they let fan favorite Kevin Millar walk. Clearly, it’s a different situation as Youkilis is only 29 and Millar was 33, and I’m not saying Youk shouldn’t ask for the money, he just has a rude awakening ahead when he learns the Red Sox don’t value him as much as he thinks they might.

New York Mets: The Mets have a long process ahead of them over what doesn’t amount to a lot of money. With LHP Oliver Perez, the differences of $1.775 million (asked $6.5 million, offered $4.725 million), isn’t much for a team who should explore retaining their reclamation success story. They are also at odds with RHP Jorge Sosa ($1.05 million), OF-L Ryan Church ($700,000), RHP Pedro Feliciano ($320,000) and OF-L Endy Chavez ($350,000). While most of these guys aren’t superior talents, taking a player to arbitration represents a lack of control on the part of the organization, who can just as easily offer a mult-year deal and retain some cost-control or certainty beyond 2008.

Philadelphia Phillies: You know the best not to lock your superstar slugger to an extension? Take ‘em to court. The Phillies and 1B-L Ryan Howard are going to an arbiter over a reported difference of $3 million (Phillies $7 million, Howard $10 million). If they had instead offered him a two-year deal, or even a deal that covered Howard through his arb years, they would likely save money in the long-run and give themselves a better chance at retaining Howard.  Howard is asking for a lot though, as $10 million would be the highest first year award ever (Miguel Cabrera was most in 2007 at $7.4 million).  Howard isn’t going to be happy when he ends up getting $7 million.

Primed for a Big Season: National League 2008

Yesterday, I covered the breakout candidates for 2008 in the American league. Today, on to the senior circuit.

10 – Chris Iannetta, 25, C-R, COL: Iannetta failed in his chance at securing the Colorado starting catcher job only hitting .218/.330/.350 in 197 AB, but with Yorvit Torrealba as his only competition, the job should be his for the taking in 2008. Iannetta has never hit more than 14 home runs in a season, but his high batting average, high on-base percentage hitting style should play well in spacious Coors field. With a career minor league .303/.409/.509 line, at 25, Iannetta is more than ready to step in and secure the job.

9 – Andy LaRoche, 24, 3B-R, LAD: With Nomar Garciaparra returning for another year with the Dodgers, LaRoche may have to hit his way into a starting role, but nothing about his track record suggests that will be difficult for the young third baseman. With a career .295/.376/.525 minor league career, including a .309/.399/.589 performance at AAA in 2007, LaRoche will become a household name in Los Angels before the year is up.

8 – Anthony Reyes, 26, RHP, STL: Reyes looked a lot worse on paper in 2007, finishing with an abysmal 2-14 record for a bad St. Louis Cardinals team. Still, despite his 6.04 ERA, Reyes has a career minor league ERA of 3.26 with a 391/76 K/BB in 362.1 innings. I was shocked at his performance last season, but he will be a solid pitcher and a change of scenery may be in order for him.

7 – Matt Cain, 23, RHP, SF: Everything in 2007 was phenomenal for the 22 year-old Cain except the run-support, which led to a 7-16 record for the right-hander despite pitching exceptionally well. With another year in the majors, his control should improve gradually and his stuff will be through the roof, leading to great breakout potential for the young ace. I can’t speak to his win-loss record, however, as the Giants will likely occupy the cellar of the NL West in 2008.

6 – Stephen Drew, 25, SS-L, AZ: Drews first full major league season had to have been one of the big disappointments in 2007. Following a 209 AB major league debut in 2006, where Drew hit .316/.357/.517, he looked to be an above-average major league shortstop. However, with 2007 in the books, he only managed to hit .238/.313/.370 with 12 home runs. Still, he is young enough and has the track record to become the type of player many saw Bobby Crosby becoming as a .280/.360/.450-type player who hits between 15 and 20 home runs annually.

5 – Elijah Dukes/Lastings Milledge/Willy Mo Pena, 24/23/26, OF-R, WAS: All three of these outfielders were sent to Washington, or the new “Island of Misfit Toys,” for different reasons but none had anything to do with talent. Of these three, Milledge has the greatest chance of blossoming into a superstar but I really like Willy Mo’s power potential. He could very well become a Jermaine Dye-type player. Dukes needs to stop threatening to kill his wife and children before he can really think about baseball, but again, the talent is undeniable. A change of scenery, a fresh chance and some regular at-bats will do all three a lot of good.

4 – Jay Bruce, 21, OF-L, CIN: Bruce was unstoppable in 2007, vaulting his way from advanced A ball to AAA hitting a combined .319/.375/.587 with 26 home runs. It is only a matter of time with Bruce before the Reds give him his chance. He may not play the full season in 2008, but 300 or so CAB will be more than enough for Bruce to prove he is ready to play with the big boys.

3 – Chris B. Young, 24, CF-R, AZ: Young had what might be viewed as a confounding rookie debut, demonstrating all of the potential scouts and stat-heads alike saw in him, while also taking his one knock—his questionable strike-zone control to a new level. While Young was only 3 stolen bases shy of becoming the first 30-30 rookie of all time, he also only managed an abysmal .297 on-base percentage in a .237/.295/.467 line with 141/43 K/BB in 2007. With a career minor league isolated patience of .91 and his career major league isolated power sitting at .221, Young is primed for a breakout.

2 – Justin Upton, 20, RF-R, AZ: Following what many felt was a disappointing pro debut in 2006, Justin Upton exploded his way through advanced A ball and AA all the way to the major leagues, capping it off with 140 AB of .221/.283/.364 with 2 home runs in his time with the D-Backs as a 19 year-old (!!!). The former first overall pick of the 2005 draft, who at the time of his drafting drew comparisons to both Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. (one doesn’t earn comps like that for nothing), is here to stay. I see a 20-20 season, or damn close to it, for Upton in 2008 and from there, the sky is the limit for this young prodigy.

1 – Rickie Weeks, 25, 2B-R, MIL: I have been a fan of Rickie Weeks since he hit .500/.619/.987 for Southern University and was picked by the Milwaukee Brewers with the second overall pick in the 2003 amateur draft. Since then, Weeks was rushed to the big leagues and has had problems staying healthy during his time but he has consistently been able to show that he can hit. In 2005, as a 22 year-old, Weeks hit .268/.365/.442 with 25 home runs between AAA and the bigs.

Last season, Weeks struggled, hitting .212/.330/.363 with 5 home runs prior to the trade deadline. It at that time that he was demoted to AAA. In his final 150 at-bats, Weeks hit .273/.442/.553 with 11 homeruns, demonstrating the potential he has. It is getting to be crunch-time for Weeks because his glove has never played well at second base, so he will need to hit to stay there. I believe 2008 is the year he becomes a household name.

Honorable mention: Mike Jacobs, John Meloan, Miguel Montero, Geovany Soto (the real breakout was 2007), Edwin Encarnacion and Hong-Chih Kuo.

Quick Hits: Kotsay to the Braves, Indians are now…uh…Progressive?

 The Oakland  Athletics have agreed to trade CF-L Mark Kotsayto the Atlanta Braves in exchange for RHP Joey Devine and Jamie Richmond, pending a physical examination for Kotsay in Atlanta.

Kotsay, 32, will serve as a short-term solution for the win-now Braves as the A’s have agreed to pay over $5 million of the $7.33 million remaining in the final year of a three-year contract extension signed with the A’s in 2006.

I like this move for the A’s who have already tradedRHP Dan Haren and OF/1B-S Nick Swisher in their rebuilding efforts.  They may still move 2B-R Mark Ellis, RHP’s Joe Blanton, Huston Street, Rich Harden and maybe even franchise-face 3B-L Eric Chavez before Spring Training, or early in the 2008 season.

Oakland General Manager Billy Beane has done a great job of rebuilding a farm system that was thin.  Now, their farm system is among the best in the game.  Still, as Blez of Athletics Nation points out, the problem the A’s now face is as much a result on a lack of emphasis on scouting and player development, as portrayed (perhaps exaggerated) in Michael Lewis’ Moneyball, as anything.

As for the Braves, Kotsay will offer a decent lead-off candidate and center field defense if his back holds up, stepping in for long-time Brave centerfielder Andruw Jones.  Kotsay has had trouble staying healthy and in the past three seasons has hit .267/.321/.388.

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I’m of the belief that the Cleveland Indians are long overdue for a mascot change.  Chief Wahoo is a gross sterotype of Native-Americans, but now to change the name of their field from Jacobs Field to Progressive Field is just strange to me.  David Chalk of Bugs and Cranks points out this irony. 

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John Sickels rates the Cleveland Indians’ and Colorado Rockies’ farm systems.