Arbitration Underway: Early Winners and Losers

Contracts are being signed left and right as organizations and players are coming to terms on short-term contracts, smartly avoiding the arbitration process. As much as most players try to keep the “business” of baseball in mind, going through the process often leaves a bad taste in players’ mouths, so organizations strive to appease their players by avoiding the process altogether. In some cases, when the figures being thrown around do not agree, arbitration is inevitable. Here is a list of some winners and losers.

Winners:

Oakland Athletics: We all know the A’s are rebuilding by now. For that reason, they need to keep risk to a minimum. Where before, Billy Beane and company were considering locking up closer RHP Huston Street to a long-term deal, having suffered an elbow injury in 2007, they wisely locked him up to a one-year deal. Likewise, the A’s agreed to terms on a one-year deal with RHP Joe Blanton. The A’s have been traditionally very good at securing young talent–RHP Rich Harden, RHP Dan Haren, OF-S Nick Swisher–that is not their priority for now. If the A’s elect to trade either player, locking them up to longer deals will be up to their new teams.

Carlos Pena: When journeymen strike it rich, it’s usually not a great idea (see: Gary Matthews Jr.), but 1B-L Carlos Pena showed in 2007 that he can hit, mashing to a .282/.411/.627 clip with 46 home runs in 490 AB. That performance was a shocker to everyone in baseball and earned Pena the Comeback Player of the Year award. The 30-year old slugger earned every penny of his $24.125 million deal.

Colorado Rockies: After LF-R Matt Holliday, Scott Boras rejected a 5-year $60 million contract to keep the MVP runner-up in Coors, Dan O’Dowd has given Holliday a 2-year $23 million deal, keeping the slugger in uniform through his walk-year in 2009. In this regard, the Rockies have done the next best thing aside from giving Holliday an extension, they’re keeping him happy. Now, when it comes time to attempt to negotiate an extension following the 2008 season, Boras and Holliday will remember this.

Losers:

Kevin Youkilis: The Red Sox and 1B-R Kevin Youkilis were unable to come to terms on a contract with Youkilis asking for $3.7 million and the Red Sox offering $2.5 million. As a corner infielder with only a little bit of pop, Youkilis should be content starting for a championship team. Even if he is liked by the fans, has been a key contributor, the Sox have already shown that corner infielders aren’t hard to come by and aren’t difficult to replace when they let fan favorite Kevin Millar walk. Clearly, it’s a different situation as Youkilis is only 29 and Millar was 33, and I’m not saying Youk shouldn’t ask for the money, he just has a rude awakening ahead when he learns the Red Sox don’t value him as much as he thinks they might.

New York Mets: The Mets have a long process ahead of them over what doesn’t amount to a lot of money. With LHP Oliver Perez, the differences of $1.775 million (asked $6.5 million, offered $4.725 million), isn’t much for a team who should explore retaining their reclamation success story. They are also at odds with RHP Jorge Sosa ($1.05 million), OF-L Ryan Church ($700,000), RHP Pedro Feliciano ($320,000) and OF-L Endy Chavez ($350,000). While most of these guys aren’t superior talents, taking a player to arbitration represents a lack of control on the part of the organization, who can just as easily offer a mult-year deal and retain some cost-control or certainty beyond 2008.

Philadelphia Phillies: You know the best not to lock your superstar slugger to an extension? Take ‘em to court. The Phillies and 1B-L Ryan Howard are going to an arbiter over a reported difference of $3 million (Phillies $7 million, Howard $10 million). If they had instead offered him a two-year deal, or even a deal that covered Howard through his arb years, they would likely save money in the long-run and give themselves a better chance at retaining Howard.  Howard is asking for a lot though, as $10 million would be the highest first year award ever (Miguel Cabrera was most in 2007 at $7.4 million).  Howard isn’t going to be happy when he ends up getting $7 million.

Quick Hits: Kotsay to the Braves, Indians are now…uh…Progressive?

 The Oakland  Athletics have agreed to trade CF-L Mark Kotsayto the Atlanta Braves in exchange for RHP Joey Devine and Jamie Richmond, pending a physical examination for Kotsay in Atlanta.

Kotsay, 32, will serve as a short-term solution for the win-now Braves as the A’s have agreed to pay over $5 million of the $7.33 million remaining in the final year of a three-year contract extension signed with the A’s in 2006.

I like this move for the A’s who have already tradedRHP Dan Haren and OF/1B-S Nick Swisher in their rebuilding efforts.  They may still move 2B-R Mark Ellis, RHP’s Joe Blanton, Huston Street, Rich Harden and maybe even franchise-face 3B-L Eric Chavez before Spring Training, or early in the 2008 season.

Oakland General Manager Billy Beane has done a great job of rebuilding a farm system that was thin.  Now, their farm system is among the best in the game.  Still, as Blez of Athletics Nation points out, the problem the A’s now face is as much a result on a lack of emphasis on scouting and player development, as portrayed (perhaps exaggerated) in Michael Lewis’ Moneyball, as anything.

As for the Braves, Kotsay will offer a decent lead-off candidate and center field defense if his back holds up, stepping in for long-time Brave centerfielder Andruw Jones.  Kotsay has had trouble staying healthy and in the past three seasons has hit .267/.321/.388.

—————————-

I’m of the belief that the Cleveland Indians are long overdue for a mascot change.  Chief Wahoo is a gross sterotype of Native-Americans, but now to change the name of their field from Jacobs Field to Progressive Field is just strange to me.  David Chalk of Bugs and Cranks points out this irony. 

—————————-

John Sickels rates the Cleveland Indians’ and Colorado Rockies’ farm systems.

Oakland A’s Rebuilding, Trade Nick Swisher to ChiSox

I have to apologize for the long break. Not even a happy New Years message. I hope everyone had a great holiday season. Regular posting shall resume. On to the A’s.

The Oakland Athletics have agreed to send Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox for CF Ryan Sweeney, LHP Gio Gonzalez and RHP Fautino De Los Santos. With this move, the A’s have committed to their rebuilding effort fully having traded their two biggest assets in Haren and Swisher, both young and cheap, but neither will fit into their plans for 2010 when they move into their new stadium in Fremont.

Swisher, 27, will be entering his prime and a shift from a pitcher’s park to US Cellular field, a home run hitter’s park, will bode well for him. A solid, on-base driven .900 OPS isn’t out of the question and will provide a significant move for a White Sox team that ranked last in the majors in OBP in 2007. He is set to play center field unless the White Sox pull the trigger and trade 1B Paul Konerko.

Of the package the A’s received, Gonzalez is the prize. The lefty combines a fastball that sits 92-95 with a curve ball with sharp downward break that sits in the low 80’s. Both are regarded as plus pitches. He also has a change up that is quickly improving and will be an important pitch for him at the big league level. He will likely start the season in AAA with the hopes of getting a shot at the rotation in 2008.

Fautino De Los Santos looks like a good find to help bolster Oakland’s lower minors. He will likely start the season in AA.

Ryan Sweeney doesn’t offer much promise as a major leaguer and that’s been fairly evident from his two brief stints. His best season was an .802 OPS in 2006 but he took a step back in 07. Still, he may be able to provide Oakland with a young, cheap outfielder for the years of rebuilding and beyond.

When all is said and done, the White Sox are a little misguided to think they will be able to beat the Cleveland Indians and the Detriot Tigers, but Swisher is a nice addition provided they believe they will compete.

—————————–

Quick Hits

Rumors are nothing more than rumors but a Paul Konerko for Howie Kendrick and Ervin Santana would be a bad move for the Angels. Kendrick is young, cheap and probably already a better hitter than Konerko at second base. Here’s saying Kendrick is the second best 2B in the majors after Chase Utley. The Angels do need a power bat but that would also make defensive wizard 1B Casey Kotchman expendable.

If I were a Major League GM, I’d take a flier on Ervin Santana who would benefit from a change of scenery.

—————————–

The Florida Marlins agreed to terms with Jorge Cantu on a minor league contract. I like this move because Florida is really proving to their fan base that they are committed to winning in Florida. Between Jose Castillo and Cantu, if you combine all their counting stats and add up their rate stats, they might exceed Miguel Cabrera’s production at third.

Diamondbacks Acquire Dan Haren from Oakland Athletics for Six Players

The Arizona Diamondbacks, who were the National League West division leaders in 2007 with a league-leading 90-wins, prepared themselves to stay in the hunt with the re-vamping Los Angeles Dodgers and National League Champion Colorado Rockies for 2008 by acquiring Dan Haren from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for six players.

In Haren, the Diamondbacks are adding an ace to a pitching staff that was fourth in the National League with a 4.13 team ERA. Haren finished 2007 with a career best 15-9 record with a 3.07 ERA with 192 K’s and 52 BB’s in 222.2 IP, good for an ERA+ 137. Haren pitched 2007 in the pitcher-friendly McAfee Coliseum and with the A’s great defense behind him, so moving to Chase Field, his 2008 numbers should be more in line with his 2006-07 performance. However, last year’s improvement does represent a steady improvement Haren has been making over the past three seasons in his command and overall poise as his strikeout rate and homerun rate have steadily improved.

Haren is an aggresive pitcher who attacks hitters with a fastball that sits around 92 mph and occasionally hits 94 mph. He also features a plus split-finger fastball that sits around 86-88 mph as well as a curve ball and change up that are both decent pitches that he locates well. He will step in behind Brandon Webb to form a formidable one-two punch.

Arizona general manager, Josh Byrnes, in an interview with KTAR radio, has this to say of Haren: “He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, he’s a starter who pitches a lot of innnings, has been durable. He’s the right age and he’s under contract for three years.” Haren is owed $4 million in 2008, $5.5 million in 2009 and has a club option in 2010 for $6.75 million, making him a bargain for the Diamondbacks.

The six players sent to Oakland in the deal include LHPs Brett Anderson, Greg Smith and Dana Eveland, along with OF Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham and 1B Chris Carter.

In Gonzalez, the A’s are getting the Diamondbacks #1 prospect, according to Baseball America’s organizational Top-10 list. He hit .288/.336/.478 with 17 home runs in 500 ABs between AA and AAA in 2008. He rated as the organization’s best power hitting prospect, although his plate discipline still needs work. He may end up playing for Oakland as soon as early 2008. Anderson was Arizona’s second round pick in 2006 and is a few years away, but he had a strong showing in his pro debut, posting a 3.07 ERA between A ball and advanced A ball with a 125 Ks and 21 walks in 120.1 IP. He was rated by Baseball America as the D-Backs #3 prospect going into 2008 and as the organizations best control pitching prospect as well as possessing the best slider. Cunningham and Carter rated as the organization’s 7th and 8th best prospects respectively.

This move was made in conjunction with trading closer Jose Valverde to the Houston Astros for RHP Chad Qualls and 2B/OF Chris Burke. Valverde was set to get a pay raise in arbitration after leading Major League Baseball with 47 saves and was under club control for 2008-09.

In Qualls, they get a reliable bullpen arm who will be under control for Arizona for another three seasons. Burke once looked like a promising second base prospect with plus speed and great plate discipline, but he never got to take over at secondbase with incumbent Craig Biggio sticking around until this past season before retiring. He will step in as a utility player and possible replacement for Orlando Hudson, who is in his final year before hitting free agency. It will be interesting to see if Burke can reach the potential many saw for him a few years back, now 28, coming off a rough 2007 season and averaging only around 330 ABs for the past three seasons.

On trading Valverde, Byrnes had this to say:

“The two deals work hand-in-hand. The only hesitation with the Oakland deal was it reduced our depth and flexibility which served us so well. The Houston deal brough that right back. It’s hard to replace Jose Valverde, but we have the kind of guys who can do it. On some level, we have to believe in talent and often success in the 7th and 8th inning can translate into success in the 9th.”

In 2008, the Diamondbacks rotation will look like this:

1. Brandon Webb, RHP

2. Dan Haren, RHP

3. Doug Davis, LHP

4. Randy Johnson, LHP

5. Micah Owings, RHP

This looks like a pretty solid rotation and with the depth the Diamondbacks have, their rotation will stack up with that of the Dodgers and Padres. Their bullpen will be in flux, with the closer uncertain but may look something like this:

1. CL – Tony Peña, RHP

2. SU – Chad Qualls, RHP

3. SU – Brandon Lyon, RHP

4. MRP – Juan Cruz, RHP

5. MRP – Doug Slaten, LHP

6. MRP – Dustin Nippert, RHP

7. LRP – Yusmeiro Peit, RHP

Their bullpen may run into some trouble as some at the back-end of the rotation like Pena and Lyon had performances in 2007 that were well ahead of their strikeout and walk rates.

Still, with the addition of Haren, the Diamondbacks are set to make a run at a Championship for the next two or three seasons as their youth movement and rebuilding efforts have culminated, leading up to this team. They will be a team to watch in 2008.

 

For more information on the trade, be sure to check out Jim McLennan’s write up over at AZ Snakepit–always a great read on all things Diamondbacks.