Player of the Week: Jay Bruce

Cincinnati Reds CF-L Jay Bruce is 2008’s prospect of the year. Baseball America hasn’t published its top 100 prospects yet, but when it does, Jay Bruce will be #1. When I publish my top 25 list (coming soon!), he will be #1.  He is already the number one prospect according to multiple sources, including Minor League Baseball (check the video provided to see live footage).

Bruce was selected 12th overall in the 2005 out of Westbrook high school in an amateur draft the was rich in high school outfield prospects, including OF-R Justin Upton (1st overall–Arizona), Cameron Maybin (10th overall–Detroit), Andrew McCutchen (11th overall–Pittsburgh), CF-L Jacoby Ellsbury (23rd overall–Boston), and Colby Rasmus (28th overall-St. Louis). Bruce outperformed all of his peers, hitting a combined .319/.375/.587 with 26 home runs in 521 at-bats between advanced A ball and AAA, never slugging less than .567 (AAA), as a 20 year-old, on his way to earning the Midwest League MVP award as well as Baseball America’s Player of the Year Award in 2007.

Most scouts would still rate Upton as the top talent out of the 2005 draft, but none will argue that Bruce could be every bit the superstar and contend for the top spot out of that talented crop of players. As much as Bruce is known for his talent, he is also regarded as having a great work ethic with excellent character and makeup, as Cincinnati General Manager Wayne Krivski notes, “He’s got a nice package of skills and ability to go along with that makeup…He’s 20 years old and having success in Triple-A…but for as much talent as he has, his family deserves all the credit for the quality person he is. Something like that cannot be quantified.”

In a recent ranking of Cincinatti’s top prospects, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus says:

“Bruce is loaded with both tools and skills. He’s a fantastic hitter who is seemingly incapable of light contact, projecting as a .300+ hitter who approaches 100 extra-base hits annually. He has average to slightly-above speed and has proven to be surprisingly capable in center field, while also showcasing a strong arm. He supplements his natural abilities with strong makeup and an outstanding work ethic.”

I’m not certain I would agree with the 100 extra basehits right off the bat–that’s like saying he’ll become Albert Pujols–but this is high praise for such a young player, and Cincinatti’s faith in Bruce led to their trading of CF-L Josh Hamilton, making room for Bruce in centerfield for 2008. Bruce will likely see a lot of time in center for the Reds in 2008, and while some scouts question his ability to stick in center beyond the next couple seasons, his hitting will be good enough to play in either outfield corner, where he will likely end up as a rightfielder once OF-L Ken Griffey Jr departs.

Beyond that, its anyones guess what kind of player Bruce will become. The sky is the limit. I see a player who will be a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate who hits 35-40 home runs in his peak.  His plate discipline has never been fantastic, but as a superior hitter at a young age, those skills will develop at the big league level as he learns the league. For this season, I see about 400 AB’s with a .280/.330/.480 line with close to 20 home runs.  I’m assuming his pitch selection will improve a little, even at the big league level. 

The Reds have a lot to be excited for in 2008 and with flawed teams in Milwaukee and Chicago competing for the NL Central title in 2008, the Reds are a solid sleeper pick for 2008, provided they get the type of production expected from players like Bruce.

——————————-

Baseball Prospectus’s Will Carroll weighs in on young pitcher usage on the Lohud Yankees Blog. The New York Yankees (RHP Joba Chamberlain, Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedyare in trouble) as well as the Tampa Bay Rays (LHP Scott Kazmirand RHP James Shields, Matt Garza) because young pitchers cannot pitch a lot of innings without a lot of risk involved according to the Year After Effect. Carroll suggests using Chamberlain in the rotation for 100 innings, then moving him to the bullpen. Makes sense, isn”t going to happen.

——————————-

The longest tenured General Manager in baseball, Kevin Towers, received a contract extension, to remain in San Diego through 2010. Most importantly, Towers has completed deals to keep sluggers 1B-L Adrian Gonzalezand RHP Jake Peavy and Chris Young in San Diego. The Peavy extensionrepresents a huge step in remaining in contention in the NL West where the Pads have largely been underdogs in recent years but have still managed to contend year after year.

Base Hits: Teixeira, Cabrera sign; Robertson gets Extension

Wrapping up with arbitration stories, the Atlanta Braves are gearing up for their last hurrah, signing 1B-S Mark Teixeira to a one-year $12.5 million contract. It will be unlikely that the Braves will be able to retain the Boras client for less than market value, but if the Braves put together a good run in the NL East, Teixeira may enjoy playing for manager Bobby Cox. I still look for Teixeira to depart after the 2007 season.

———————————–

The Detroit Tigers have agreed to terms with 3B-R Miguel Cabrera on a one-year $11.3 million, a significant raise from his 2006 salary of $7.4 million. This was a first step toward locking up the 25 year-old phenom long-term. It seems obvious that Cabrera wouldn’t sign a long-term deal without experiencing playing in the American League and playing for manager Jim Leyland, but the Tigers have the pieces in place to become a strong contender in 2007 and that’s what it’s going to take to entice Cabrera to stay.

The Tigers also signed LHP Nate Robertson to a 3-year $21.25 million extension. The “innings eater” will give the Tigers some stability at the back end of the rotation. I’m not crazy about Robertson or what he does on the mound, but the Tigers will still have some flexibility after 2007 once LHP Kenny Rogers comes off the books.

———————————–

The Tampa Bay Rays have traded for former Braves IF-S Willy Aybar. Aybar, 24, when he signed with the LA Dodgers, received the highest signing bonus of all time for a Dominican player, but after a trade to the Braves, battled problems with substance abuse and hasn’t played since 2006. Still, Aybar is exactly the type of player the Rays could use to build up competition in their middle infield and still figures to be a solid offensive contributor if he puts his past behind him.

Primed for Big Seasons: American League 2008

As I mentioned in my last post, Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan named Jeff Francoeur his number one breakout candidate for 2008. I thought that was a great pick and that was a topic I’d been looking forward to addressing prior to the 2008 season. Since Sheehan said he’d work on that article for this week, I felt I had to get my ideas down before he did.

There is nothing more important and significant to a player’s career than a major league breakout, meaning a player takes a dramatic step forward in their performance and becomes the star they were projected to be. This can happen as a result of a player’s health improving, experience and ability finally coming together, pending free-agency and sometimes even the acquisition of a new pitch (for a pitcher) or a change of scenery. Here is a look at some guys who I feel have laid the groundwork to have huge seasons in the American League in 2008.

10 – Dioner Navarro, 24, C-S, TB: Since starting full-time with the Dodgers as a 22 year-old, Navarro has been trying to make it as a major league catcher. While his time in Tampa has been anything but promising (.227/.286/.356 in 2007), following the All-Star break, he hit .285/.340/.475 with 8 of his 9 home runs coming in that span. I’m not saying he’s the next big thing but I’ve always felt he could be a solid regular for a team and next season, he seems primed to make that jump.

9 – Masahide Kobayashi, 33, RHP, CLE: Signing a two-year deal with the Cleveland Indians, Kobayashi is the candidate most likely to step in as the team’s closer, replacing Joe “Get-er-Done” Borowski. Mike Plugh of Baseball Prospectus writes that Kobayashi features a high-90’s fast ball and a slider and given seven seasons as the closer for the Chiba Lotte Marines, he may take the American League by storm in 2008 for a strong Cleveland ball club.

8 – Boof Bonser, 26, RHP, MIN: The 6’4” 260 pound right-hander has always had good stuff and command of his stuff but the long ball has always been a source of trouble. While his 2007 season looked bad on paper, 5.10 ERA, his K/9 (7.08) and track record bode well for the big righty. Remember, in 2006, between AAA and his time in the bigs, Bonser pitched 186.2 innings with 167 K, 59 BB, 22 HR and a 3.90 ERA. Also, with Delmon Young in left, where he should be above average and the acquisition of Coco Crisp or Jacoby Ellsbury as likely possibilities, Minnesota’s outfield defense should be helpful to the cause.

7 – Evan Longoria, 22, 3B-R, TB – Alex Gordon demonstrated in 2007 that even “can’t miss” prospects sometimes can struggle at the big league level but he’s also my pick for AL rookie of the year. He can mash, hitting for power to all fields—last season, Longoria hit a combined .299/.402/.520 between AA and AAA—and his defense should be above average.

6 – Delmon Young, 22, OF-R, MIN: There is one glaring hole in Delmon Young’s game: pitch recognition. His development, namely his power, will depend heavily upon how that area of his game improves. In order for Young to reach the potential most see in him, earning comparisons to Albert Belle and Vladimir Guerrero, it will take two breakouts: one where he becomes a 20-25 home run hitter and the one where he hits 35-40 home runs. I believe with a change of scenery and something to prove, Young will reach that first plateau in 2008. He will still need to learn, along the way, that there are pitches you can drive and situations that call for expanding the zone, but to simply swing away isn’t how the vast majority of power-hitters approach hitting.

5 – Phillip Hughes/Joba Chamberlain, 22, RHP, NYA: Both of these young arms have a great deal of promise, with Hughes considered the best pitching prospect in baseball in 2006 and Chamberlain considered to be one of the top two pitching prospects in 2007. Hughes was inconsistent in his debut and eventually as sidelined with an ankle sprain. Chamberlain dominated at every level, until famously joining the Yankee bullpen and making a name for himself. He never got a crack at the rotation but based on how well he pitched, the expectations will be high. For that reason, neither is a huge “break-out” candidate, in the sense that both have a great deal of expectations to live up to, but both are primed to succeed at the big league level. It will be interesting to see who will have the better season.

4 – Alex Gordon, 24, 3B-L, KC: Gordon got off to an awful start, hitting a meager .232/.321/.358 prior to the All-Star break but saw improvement in the second half, hitting .264/.305/.472, showing that the power is there. He still has room to improve, but the tools are there for him to reach that level many saw for him as 2007’s number one prospect.

3 – Howie Kendrick: 24, 2B-R, LAA: Kendrick managed to demonstrate his amazing ability to make contact hitting .322/.347/.450 in 338 AB. The power was not there for him as he hit only 5 home runs in that span. This was entirely due to two wrist injuries that kept him from settling in. In each case, Kendrick would hit-hit-hit, get hurt, then slump upon return, then hit-hit-hit again. If manager Mike Scioscia can get Kendrick (a career .359 minor league hitter) from batting sixth in the order as he did for most of 2007 to hitting second, he will be a great table-setter for Vlad. I see a shot at a batting title and 20 home runs for Kendrick in 2008.

2 – Jeremy Bonderman/Felix Hernandez, 25/22, RHP, DET/SEA: I have placed these two pitchers together because both made their major league debuts before the age of 20, both have phenomenal stuff and both have failed to ascend to the level that many see as elite starting pitchers. The physical tools are there, but the experience has yet to come for these two. I would hope that it doesn’t take King Felix as long as it has taken Bonderman (I’ve been expecting break-outs for the past two seasons), but it only further emphasizes how difficult it is to pitch at the level that is expected of these two young players. Look for that ascension in 2008.

1 – Daisuke Matsuzaka, 27, RHP, BOS: The expectations were unthinkably high for Dice-K based on the $103.1 million the Red Sox invested to secure the Japanese right hander and many saw his 15-13 record, his 4.40 ERA and his mid-season slump and were disappointed. He definitely broke down in the second half, posting a 5.19 ERA in 85 innings with a 78/42 K/BB after the break but before that slump, he pitched every bit as well as advertised. In 119.2 pre-All-Star Game innings, Matsuzaka had a 3.84 ERA, and 123/38 K/BB. Baseball America’s top prospect in 2007 will see a vast improvement in 2008 as he learns the league, acclimates to the country and improves upon his control over his arsenal of pitches.

Honorable mention: Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Quentin, John Danks, Adam Jones and Edwin Jackson.

Tomorrow, the NL.

Detroit Tigers Extend Willis; What About Miguel?

The Detroit Tigers have agreed to terms with left-handed pitcher Dontrelle Willis on a 3-year $29 million contract extension through the 2010 season. There is also an incentive clause which will pay Willis an additional $500,000 if he wins a Cy Young Award. In 2007, Willis made $6.45 million with the Florida Marlins and was set to get a raise in arbitration. Willis would have been a free agent following the 2009 season.

Willis, 25, is coming off of the worst year of his career, pitching 205.1 innings with a 5.17 ERA with 146 strikeouts, 87 walks and 29 home runs with a 10 – 15 record. However, in five seasons with the Marlins, Willis is 68-54 with a 3.78 ERA in 1022.2 IP, with 757 strikeouts and 344 walks.

With Willis, the Detroit Tiger’s rotation will look like this for 2008:

Justin Verlander, RHP -200 IP – 3.80 ERA – 160 K – 70 BB

Jeremy Bonderman, RHP – 180 IP – 4.00 ERA – 180 IP – 60 BB

Dontrelle Willis, LHP – 200 IP – 4.50 ERA – 140 IP – 70 BB

Kenny Rogers, LHP – 80 IP – 4.60 ERA – 40 K – 20 BB

Nate Robertson, LHP – 160 IP – 4.80 ERA – 90 K – 50 BB

Justin Verlander took a step forward in 2007, increasing his K/9 from just shy of 6 to 8.2. That’s what happens when you throw a fastball that sits 95 – 98 mph and hits 100 mph with the slow curve and now a decent circle change. If he remains healthy again in 2008, he will be one to watch. Bonderman, still only 25 years-old, is coming off a disappointing 2007 season that was affected by inconsistency and an elbow injury. At worst, his pitching should be in line with his 2005-06 level. He may finally put it all together this season and ascend to the true ace many (including myself) believe he will be but the injury is bad news. This season, Kenny Rogers will be 43 years-old and only pitched 63 innings in 2007, so they’ll need him to eat up some innings along with Robertson at the back of the rotation because they don’t have many viable options.

Willis is a polarizing pitcher–he is viewed with a great deal of skepticism amongst the statistical community, but he is popular in the media as a former 20-game winner and a major contributor to the Marlins 2003 World Series. I tend to take somewhat of a middle ground when it comes to Willis. Is he the superstar he was in 2005? Surely not, but he isn’t as bad as his numbers reflected last season either. He’s young, durable so far and has decent stuff and is a lefty. He’s an asset to the Tigers even with the extension. After all, he’d probably have been the best pitcher on the market this off-season including Curt Schilling because of innings pitched (although there are no bad one-year deals) and they got him below market value through only his age 28 season.

More importantly, he will step into a team with a much stronger defense than he had last season with with the Marlins without defensive butchers like Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla up the middle and Miguel Cabrera in the infield (oh, wait–Miggy is still there). He also has Granderson patrolling center–one of the better defensive center fielders in the game. Poor defense helps explain his 3.29 BABIP (see McCracken) in 2007, which should see a decline in 08.

My only complaint is they should explore extending Miguel Cabrera before any other player. The deal was a steal but that doesn’t change the endgame. That is a must for them but it may not happen this season.

Cabrera, Willis to Detroit for Six Prospects

Word is the Florida Marlins are sending Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for a six-player package, including super-prospect OF Cameron Maybin and LHS Andrew Miller along with four fringe prospects.

This seems like a pretty solid package for the Marlins. One can never be certain what other offers were on the table for the Marlins with the two LA clubs, but neither seemed willing to offer multiple, upper-echelon young players.

In Maybin the Marlins get the Tiger’s first round pick in 2005. He projects as an athletic, speed-power outfielder with a high ceiling–his knowledge of the strike zone still needs work. He will likely start the year in AAA and step in to center or right field for the Marlins by mid-season. Miller was the consensus top-talent in the 2006 draft, but fell to the Tigers at 6th overall due to his high asking price. Miller pitched out of the rotation for Detroit in 2007, but his command was never where it needed to be and he struggled at the big league level. Still, the 6′6″ lefty projects as a potential ace and should make major improvement this season, his second full season of pro-ball.

Of course, the Tiger’s acquisition of Cabrera is huge news as he will likely step in to replace Brandon Inge at third and bolster an already strong offensive team trying to dethrone the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. I don’t have to sit here and go over how good Cabrera is. His numbers speak for themselves and won’t be affected playing in spacious Comerica park as Dolphin stadium is also vast. If anything, Cabrera will instantly become a perennial MVP candidate, stepping into a strong contending team.

The Marlins also included Dontrelle Willis into package, shedding his salary, which will increase in his final year of arbitration. Willis was included, like Mike Lowell in the Boston deal, as a player coming off of a bad year. Willis, as a pitcher, is durable (200+ IP last three seasons) but relies too heavily on his deceptive delivery and not enough on pure stuff nor on command of his pitches but a move to a new team and a good ballpark may see him return to a league average lefty starter.

I see this as a major boost for the Tigers who now are the team to beat in the AL Central and a decent return for the Marlins, netting two potential super-stars. I have to wonder if they might have been able to get more and should have in a deal with the Dodgers. The “other four guys” included in the deal don’t project for much beyond a decent starting pitching prospect and a decent relief prospect as well as 27 year-old catcher.