New York Yankees Extend Cano; C.C. Sabathia Extension in the Works?

Yesterday, with RHP James Shields receiving an extension from the Tampa Bay Rays, I published “The List” of players that still have less than three years service time (or have yet to go to arbitration), but have performed at a high enough level where organizations should explore extending them long-term. Today, the New York Yankees have offered an extension to one such player, as 2B-L Robinson Cano agreed to terms on a four-year $30 million extension with two club options that could keep the second baseman in New York through 2013.

Cano, 25, has been a very productive hitter in New York since he debuted in 2005, compiling a career .314/.346/.489 line with 48 home runs in 1621 at-bats. After hitting .342 in 2006, Cano followed that campaign up with a good offensive season in 2007, hitting .306/.353./.488 with 19 home runs in 617 at-bats.

Defensively, Cano has seen steady improvement as he has learned to man the position. His range, particularly, has improved and that has been evident as he is now regarded as one of the better defenders at his positions by many in baseball. The statistics back up this improvement as well as Cano has seen improvement scoring -4, 13, then 26 fielding runs above average (FRAA) according to Baseball Prospectus and rated as the fourth best second baseman in baseball according to ESPN’s Zone rating and third in the AL in 2007. This is a solid improvement by Cano and represents a very diverse skill set for the young second baseman.

Cano will be entering his prime in the next few seasons as he learns the league and fills out physically. It was a good move for the Yankees to lock up the second baseman, securing as many as three of his free agent seasons and as long as into his age 31 season.

This off-season was a particularly weak one, as far as available free agents go and the league has adjusted very ably as teams now have explored alternative ways to procure and secure talent, with high profile trades becoming more regular along with creative contract extensions. This represents an economic savvy in baseball that was certainly missing in the 2006 off-season when teams tossed around lucrative, long-term deals to veterans and marginal players (see: Los Angeles center fielders), as if trying to will their way into contention. I really like this trend and the teams that fail to make adjustments will really suffer.

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The Cleveland Indians have reportedly offered LHP C.C. Sabathia a long-term deal, although the details have yet to be announced. If the Indians successfully extend the 2007 Cy Young Award winner, this will represent a big boost to their long-term plans as one of the American Leagues premier teams as they lack a true ace or any on the way in the farm. I like RHP Fausto Carmona alright and he also made “The List,” but I want to see another dominating season out of him and Adam Miller needs to be healthy, pitch in the bigs before he earns any real credit. If Sabathia agrees to a contract, and he seems to want to, it will likely be on the Indians and General Manager Mark Shapiro’s terms, probably no more than five-years and $73 million deal the Houston Astros signed with RHP Roy Oswalt.

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The Atlanta Braves have reached agreement with RHP Rafael Soriano on a two-year $9 million extension with $500,000 in incentives. Soriano has been a great relief pitcher dating back to his days in Seattle. His only concern is his health, but having pitched 72 innings in 2007, a two-year deal is hardly a big risk for his upside.

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Finally, I’ve already linked up to a scouting report on newly acquired Florida Marlins CF-R Cameron Maybin before from John Sickels Minor League Ball–one of my favorite sites. However, with players like Maybin who are mostly relying on tools and not skills yet, its always good to get a variety of sources and scouting reports to get a more complete picture. Kevin Goldstein, of Baseball Prospectus, reviews the Florida Marlins Top-11 prospects and rates Maybin as their lone five-star player. In the review Goldstein says:

“The Good: When it comes to tools, Maybin is Home Depot. He has outstanding size and athleticism, projecting to hit for average and power, while also being a total burner. He effortlessly covers ground in center field, and his arm is outstanding. He’s shown a solid approach at the plate, has great instincts on the base paths, and backs up his natural ability with a strong work ethic.”

I’ve been a fan of Maybin since he was drafted 10th overall in the very outfield-rich 2005 draft and am excited to see how he will hold up in 2008 as the Marlins likely starting center fielder. He is strong, very athletic and should play a solid center field but I would like to see him develop more in AAA, but the Marlins don’t seem to want to wait for that. He will have to develop his pitch recognition at the big league level.

Oakland A’s Rebuilding, Trade Nick Swisher to ChiSox

I have to apologize for the long break. Not even a happy New Years message. I hope everyone had a great holiday season. Regular posting shall resume. On to the A’s.

The Oakland Athletics have agreed to send Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox for CF Ryan Sweeney, LHP Gio Gonzalez and RHP Fautino De Los Santos. With this move, the A’s have committed to their rebuilding effort fully having traded their two biggest assets in Haren and Swisher, both young and cheap, but neither will fit into their plans for 2010 when they move into their new stadium in Fremont.

Swisher, 27, will be entering his prime and a shift from a pitcher’s park to US Cellular field, a home run hitter’s park, will bode well for him. A solid, on-base driven .900 OPS isn’t out of the question and will provide a significant move for a White Sox team that ranked last in the majors in OBP in 2007. He is set to play center field unless the White Sox pull the trigger and trade 1B Paul Konerko.

Of the package the A’s received, Gonzalez is the prize. The lefty combines a fastball that sits 92-95 with a curve ball with sharp downward break that sits in the low 80’s. Both are regarded as plus pitches. He also has a change up that is quickly improving and will be an important pitch for him at the big league level. He will likely start the season in AAA with the hopes of getting a shot at the rotation in 2008.

Fautino De Los Santos looks like a good find to help bolster Oakland’s lower minors. He will likely start the season in AA.

Ryan Sweeney doesn’t offer much promise as a major leaguer and that’s been fairly evident from his two brief stints. His best season was an .802 OPS in 2006 but he took a step back in 07. Still, he may be able to provide Oakland with a young, cheap outfielder for the years of rebuilding and beyond.

When all is said and done, the White Sox are a little misguided to think they will be able to beat the Cleveland Indians and the Detriot Tigers, but Swisher is a nice addition provided they believe they will compete.

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Quick Hits

Rumors are nothing more than rumors but a Paul Konerko for Howie Kendrick and Ervin Santana would be a bad move for the Angels. Kendrick is young, cheap and probably already a better hitter than Konerko at second base. Here’s saying Kendrick is the second best 2B in the majors after Chase Utley. The Angels do need a power bat but that would also make defensive wizard 1B Casey Kotchman expendable.

If I were a Major League GM, I’d take a flier on Ervin Santana who would benefit from a change of scenery.

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The Florida Marlins agreed to terms with Jorge Cantu on a minor league contract. I like this move because Florida is really proving to their fan base that they are committed to winning in Florida. Between Jose Castillo and Cantu, if you combine all their counting stats and add up their rate stats, they might exceed Miguel Cabrera’s production at third.

Detroit Tigers Extend Willis; What About Miguel?

The Detroit Tigers have agreed to terms with left-handed pitcher Dontrelle Willis on a 3-year $29 million contract extension through the 2010 season. There is also an incentive clause which will pay Willis an additional $500,000 if he wins a Cy Young Award. In 2007, Willis made $6.45 million with the Florida Marlins and was set to get a raise in arbitration. Willis would have been a free agent following the 2009 season.

Willis, 25, is coming off of the worst year of his career, pitching 205.1 innings with a 5.17 ERA with 146 strikeouts, 87 walks and 29 home runs with a 10 – 15 record. However, in five seasons with the Marlins, Willis is 68-54 with a 3.78 ERA in 1022.2 IP, with 757 strikeouts and 344 walks.

With Willis, the Detroit Tiger’s rotation will look like this for 2008:

Justin Verlander, RHP -200 IP – 3.80 ERA – 160 K – 70 BB

Jeremy Bonderman, RHP – 180 IP – 4.00 ERA – 180 IP – 60 BB

Dontrelle Willis, LHP – 200 IP – 4.50 ERA – 140 IP – 70 BB

Kenny Rogers, LHP – 80 IP – 4.60 ERA – 40 K – 20 BB

Nate Robertson, LHP – 160 IP – 4.80 ERA – 90 K – 50 BB

Justin Verlander took a step forward in 2007, increasing his K/9 from just shy of 6 to 8.2. That’s what happens when you throw a fastball that sits 95 – 98 mph and hits 100 mph with the slow curve and now a decent circle change. If he remains healthy again in 2008, he will be one to watch. Bonderman, still only 25 years-old, is coming off a disappointing 2007 season that was affected by inconsistency and an elbow injury. At worst, his pitching should be in line with his 2005-06 level. He may finally put it all together this season and ascend to the true ace many (including myself) believe he will be but the injury is bad news. This season, Kenny Rogers will be 43 years-old and only pitched 63 innings in 2007, so they’ll need him to eat up some innings along with Robertson at the back of the rotation because they don’t have many viable options.

Willis is a polarizing pitcher–he is viewed with a great deal of skepticism amongst the statistical community, but he is popular in the media as a former 20-game winner and a major contributor to the Marlins 2003 World Series. I tend to take somewhat of a middle ground when it comes to Willis. Is he the superstar he was in 2005? Surely not, but he isn’t as bad as his numbers reflected last season either. He’s young, durable so far and has decent stuff and is a lefty. He’s an asset to the Tigers even with the extension. After all, he’d probably have been the best pitcher on the market this off-season including Curt Schilling because of innings pitched (although there are no bad one-year deals) and they got him below market value through only his age 28 season.

More importantly, he will step into a team with a much stronger defense than he had last season with with the Marlins without defensive butchers like Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla up the middle and Miguel Cabrera in the infield (oh, wait–Miggy is still there). He also has Granderson patrolling center–one of the better defensive center fielders in the game. Poor defense helps explain his 3.29 BABIP (see McCracken) in 2007, which should see a decline in 08.

My only complaint is they should explore extending Miguel Cabrera before any other player. The deal was a steal but that doesn’t change the endgame. That is a must for them but it may not happen this season.

Cabrera, Willis to Detroit for Six Prospects

Word is the Florida Marlins are sending Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for a six-player package, including super-prospect OF Cameron Maybin and LHS Andrew Miller along with four fringe prospects.

This seems like a pretty solid package for the Marlins. One can never be certain what other offers were on the table for the Marlins with the two LA clubs, but neither seemed willing to offer multiple, upper-echelon young players.

In Maybin the Marlins get the Tiger’s first round pick in 2005. He projects as an athletic, speed-power outfielder with a high ceiling–his knowledge of the strike zone still needs work. He will likely start the year in AAA and step in to center or right field for the Marlins by mid-season. Miller was the consensus top-talent in the 2006 draft, but fell to the Tigers at 6th overall due to his high asking price. Miller pitched out of the rotation for Detroit in 2007, but his command was never where it needed to be and he struggled at the big league level. Still, the 6′6″ lefty projects as a potential ace and should make major improvement this season, his second full season of pro-ball.

Of course, the Tiger’s acquisition of Cabrera is huge news as he will likely step in to replace Brandon Inge at third and bolster an already strong offensive team trying to dethrone the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. I don’t have to sit here and go over how good Cabrera is. His numbers speak for themselves and won’t be affected playing in spacious Comerica park as Dolphin stadium is also vast. If anything, Cabrera will instantly become a perennial MVP candidate, stepping into a strong contending team.

The Marlins also included Dontrelle Willis into package, shedding his salary, which will increase in his final year of arbitration. Willis was included, like Mike Lowell in the Boston deal, as a player coming off of a bad year. Willis, as a pitcher, is durable (200+ IP last three seasons) but relies too heavily on his deceptive delivery and not enough on pure stuff nor on command of his pitches but a move to a new team and a good ballpark may see him return to a league average lefty starter.

I see this as a major boost for the Tigers who now are the team to beat in the AL Central and a decent return for the Marlins, netting two potential super-stars. I have to wonder if they might have been able to get more and should have in a deal with the Dodgers. The “other four guys” included in the deal don’t project for much beyond a decent starting pitching prospect and a decent relief prospect as well as 27 year-old catcher.