What’s the Word? Tampa Bay Rays Aim to Edge Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays signed outfielder Cliff Floyd to a 1-Year $2.75 million contract with $2 million in incentives. Floyd will get partial play-time on both outfield corners, splitting time with OF Rocco Baldelli and Jonny Gomes and may also see some time at DH. Floyd, 35, spent 2007 with the Chicago Cubs, hitting .284/.373/.422 with 9 home runs in 282 AB.

With this move, the Rays have what looks like a nice mix of cheap, effective veteran talent to go along with a competitive core of young players with a lot of upside and this may be the season that we’ve all been expecting from them since the birth of the franchise. We’ve been watching them for a while, always thinking, “they’ll be good one of these days.” We may get a glimpse of that this season.

I’m not saying they’ll de-throne the Yankees or the Red Sox any time soon. They lack the financial resources to do that at this time. It may be possible some day should the team begin to see progress and build up a fanbase and revenue to lock up some of their young talent but for now, they should have their eyes dead-set on third place. I think they can do it.

They have to beat the always-slightly-above-average-at-all-positions Toronto Blue Jays, who generally finish in third give or take. They are always good but never have quite what it takes to make a play-off berth.

Let’s start by comparing the two teams rotations and back end of their bullpens with some loose 2008 projections provided.

Tampa Bay Rays

1. Scott Kazmir, LHP – 200 IP – 3.50 ERA – 220 K – 90 BB
2. James Shields, RHP – 200 IP – 4.00 ERA – 150 K – 60 BB
3. Matt Garza, RHP – 180 IP – 3.90 ERA – 160 K – 60 BB
4. Edwin Jackson, RHP – 150IP – 5.00 ERA – 120 K – 80BB
5. Andy Sonnanstine, LHP – 120 IP – 4.90 ERA – 90K – 40BB

Bullpen

1. CL – Troy Percival – 50 IP – 3.50 ERA – 40 K – 15 BB – 26 SV
2. SU – Dan Wheeler – 70 IP – 3.00 ERA – 60 K – 20 BB
3. SU – Al Reyes – 60 IP – 3.80 ERA – 60 IP – 20 BB

The top of the rotation is solid, with Kazmir capable of posting ace numbers. Last season, he messed around with his mechanics early in the season, but went back to just pitching and his numbers improved dramatically later on in the season. I see Shields as a candidate to regress in 2008, but his 2007 was impressive. The question will be whether or not the control-artist can maintain that high of a strikeout rate with a change-up. He won’t be walking anyone, that’s for sure. Garza will enter the rotation from the beginning of the season and the only worry will be how his arm holds up under a heavier workload, but he should be good for a 3.60 – 4.00 ERA and he will be closely monitored. With guys like Jackson and Sonnanstine, they may only remain in the rotation as long as they’re able to hold down the young guns with guys like Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and Jacob McGee surely knocking, although the latter two are still a ways away. Beware, David Price is coming soon.

As for the bullpen, Percival is a big health risk, having missed all of 2006, but he pitched 40 quality innings in 2007, so he may be a Joe Borowski-type closer for them. I think Reyes will pitch as he did in 2007 and Wheeler will pitch more in line with his 2006 numbers since he won’t be moved around as often as in 2007. Beyond those three, they have Eduardo Morlan, who they got in the Garza-Young trade–I think he’ll step in and make an impact in 2008–but not much else.

Here is Toronto’s rotation for 2008:

1. Roy Halladay, RHP – 220 IP – 3.50 ERA – 130 K – 40 BB
2. AJ Burnett, RHP – 160 IP – 3.60 ERA – 160 K – 60 BB
3. Dustin McGowan, RHP – 190 IP – 4.00 ERA – 140 K – 60 BB
4. Gustavo Chacin, LHP – 140 IP – 4.90 ERA – 90 K – 60 BB
5. Jesse Litsch, RHP – 160 IP – 4.60 ERA – 100 K – 60 BB

Bullpen

1. CL – BJ Ryan, LHP – 70 IP – 2.40 ERA – 90 K – 30 BB – 35 SV
2. SU – Jeremy Accardo, RHP – 70 IP – 2.90 ERA – 60 K – 25 BB
3. SU – Casey Janssen, RHP – 60 IP – 3.80 ERA – 50 K – 20 BB

The rotation situation in Toronto is much more dire, with Doc Halladay and McGowan as the only guys who probably won’t miss time. If Burnett can remain healthy, they will have a solid #1 – 3, but even then, without much depth in the pipeline, they can’t afford to lose anyone in the rotation. In the bullpen, if Ryan comes back strong, it will give them a presence in the bullpen that Tampa Bay can not match.

Here is a comparison of the two teams lineups. I will put together what I think their starting nine should be, again, with my projections.

Tampa Bay Rays:

1. LF – Carl Crawford, L – .310/.360/.480 – 16 HR – 55 SB
2. RF – Rocco Baldelli, R – .290/.340/.460 – 15 HR – 20 SB (400 AB)
3. CF – B.J. Upton, R – .290/.360/.490 – 25 HR – 25 SB
4. 1B – Carlos Pena, L – .270/.390/.530 – 32 HR
5. DH – Cliff Floyd/Jonny Gomes, L/R – .270/.350/.440 – 10 HR / .240/.330/.460 – 12 HR
6. 3B – Evan Longoria, R – .280/.360/.470 – 18 HR (400 AB)
7. 2B – Akinori Iwamura, L – .290/.360/.420 – 12 HR
8. SS – Jason Barlett, R – .270/.340/.370 – 18 SB
9. C – Dioner Navarro, S – .250/.330/.350

It’s difficult to project some players, like Upton, who broke out in 2007, but struck out way too often to sustain that kind of success. His patience has always been good so if he continues to make strides, the sky is the limit. I see Pena as a big regression candidate and I don’t know how I feel about listing him with even as many as 32 home runs but the man can hit. I’m a huge fan of Longoria and I say, the sooner he’s up the better. He is my pick for AL Rookie of the Year. I also like Navarro, as a former Dodger, and he may just turn the corner after a strong second half in 2007. This is a team that is very well-balanced, looks pretty strong on paper and has a lot of upside.

The Toronto Blue Jays:

1. SS – David Eckstein, R – .290/.350/.360 – 1 HR
2. CF – Vernon Wells, R – .280/.330/.460 – 23 HR
3. RF – Alex Rios, R – .300/.350/.500 – 26 HR – 15 SB
4. DH – Frank Thomas, R – .250/.370/.520 – 25 HR (400 AB)
5. 3B – Troy Glaus, R – .255/.350/.480 – 30 HR
6. 1B – Lyle Overbay, R – .270/.350/.450 – 15 HR
7. LF – Adam Lind, L – .280/.350/.470 – 22 HR
8. 2B – Aaron Hill, R – .290/.340/.440 – 12 HR
9. C – Greg Zaun, S – .240/.310/.380 – 8 HR

While Toronto’s lineup has more power than Tampa’s, they are also a very right-handed heavy team and following a lot of poor performances in 2007 from guys like Wells, Lind and Overbay, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt looking for improvement. Also, they’ll need Glaus and Thomas to stay healthy. Toronto has a lot of question marks here and if Overbay fails to recover from his injury or Wells remains his usual mediocre self, they’ll be in trouble.

Defensively, Toronto rated the best in baseball according to defensive efficiency, while Tampa Bay was dead-lastin 2007. Tampa will not be fielding the same defense this season though. With Longoria stepping in at third (I think plus defender) and Iwamura relieving Upton at second, they will be much better off. Also, the additions of Barlett and a healthy Bardelli will bolster the defense. I think the Rays have a chance to at least be in the middle of the pack.

With that, look for Tampa Bay to beat out the Toronto Blue Jays in 2008 thanks to a break out or two (I say Evan Longoria and Matt Garza) along with the rest of their core of young players, supported by a Pena and a Percival. They will be a fun team to watch in 2008.

Dodgers Sign Hiroki Kuroda to 3-Year $53.3 Million Deal

The Los Angeles Dodgers outbid the Seattle Mariners to attract Japanese free agent Hiroki Kuroda to the states, agreeing to a 3-year $35.3 million contract. Kuroda, 33, will step in to become the Dodger’s fifth starter behind Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley and Jason Schmidt.Kuroda is believed to be the best of a potential crop of Japanese pitchers who want to pitch in the US this year although the projections for 2008 and beyond are mixed.

From a scouting standpoint, Prospect Insider says:

“Kuroda sits 90-92 with a four-seam fastball that shows good leverage, although only a fair amount of sink. He has solid command of the fastball and is not afraid to elevate the pitch to change planes to give the hitter something else to look at, which is ideal since the 33-year-old does not throw a curve ball.

Kuroda’s fork-split is his best pitch and the one in which he will record the majority of his strikeouts. He’s capable of throwing it for strikes, but it’s much more effective as a change-of-pace offering that falls off the table into the dirt.

Kuroda is the class of the three free agents and will get the most interest but he profiles as a No. 3 at best, depending mostly on how well he adapts to the patient approach of the hitters in MLB.”

Dodger assistant general manager Logan White had this to say:

“I put my reputation on the guy. He’s legit. He has a very good delivery, an easy arm motion. He throws from a three-quarters angle. He runs his fastball anywhere from 89-95 miles per hour and stays around 93. He has a slider/cutter at 89 that has a lot of sharp, crisp bite. His out pitch is what he calls a forkball that has real diving, late action at the right-handed hitter.

He’s a strike thrower, and he’s very athletic, a Gold Glove-like fielder. The biggest thing, for me, is that with runners on base, he buckles down. He really is a warrior.”

This seems to be in line with most of what I’ve seen written on Kuroda. He has a good fastball and a good forkball as well as slider and a shuuto, which is like a changeup with screwball action. His command is said to be good, but with his stuff, we will have to see how it translates at the big league level. I do feel more comfortable seeing that Logan White really likes this guy’s stuff.

Still, his statistics in Japan were far from dominating and it will be interesting to see how it all translates in the Major Leagues. Andrew, over at True Blue LA was not convinced:

“Kuroda is a player entering his mid 30s that had trouble missing bats against inferior competition. The only starters that have come from Japan with strikeout rates worse than Kuroda’s are Keiichi Yabu and Masato Yoshii, neither of whom were exactly successful in their time in the states.”

With fairly unimpressive numbers in Japan, it is uncertain whether or not he will be able to sustain any real success at the big league level, much less justify the slightly less than $13 million a season he will be earning. Also, with Kuroda set to step in as the #5 starter, Esteban Loaiza will start the year in the bullpen, making $7.5 million. The Dodgers saw in 2007 that pitching depth really comes in handy but with the enigmatic Hong-Chih Kuo out of options and Scott Elbert and James McDonald almost ready for the bigs, the Dodgers may have been better served going with what they have.

My projection for Kuroda in 2008 goes something like this:

180 IP – 4.40 ERA – 130K – 60BB – 24HR

Even as a league average starter, Kuroda does make the Dodgers better in 2008 and his signing allows the team to improve the rotation without dealing any young players to acquire Erik Bedard or some such pitcher and the Dodgers don’t have to worry too much about money.

San Francisco Giants, Aaron Rowand Ink 5-Year Deal

The San Francisco Giant have agreed to a 5-year $60 million contract with free-agent CF Aaron Rowand. Rowand is coming off of a career year in 2007 in which he hit .309/.374/.515 with 27 home runs for the NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies. The Giants finished in last place in the NL West in 2007 and hope that the addition of Rowand will improve an offense that will be without Barry Bonds for the first time since 1993.

How does Rowand project for the future and will he live up to his deal?

Rowand was a former first-round pick for the White Sox in 1998 and showed good power in the minor leagues, although his strike zone control was sub-par. This may explain while it took him a while to establish himself in the majors until 2004, his age 26 season, he broke out, hitting .310/.361/.544 with 24 home runs. He would then have two pedestrian seasons, one with the Sox, then one with the Phillies, OPSing .736 and .746, respectively. Despite Rowand’s impressive 2007 season, he got to play it in Citizen’s Bank Park, the best hitter’s park this side of Coors and his numbers reflected such as he hit .319/.380/.557 with 17 home runs at home and .299/.368/.475 with 10 home runs on the road.

Still, for a Giants team that was looking to head into 2008 with Randy Winn and Ray Durham as their best offensive players, Rowand, 30, stands to improve the club quite a bit, even if he hits closer to his 2007 road line. I see a .285/.350/.460 in his future with about 18 bombs.

Rowand will also improve the Giants team defense, as he rates well according to most quantitative measures as a center fielder. He rated just behind Torri Hunter in ESPN’s zone rating as well as a rate2 of 106*, according to Baseball Prospectus. He will be a vast improvement over Dave Roberts who likely would have been their starting center fielder. He also won his first Gold Glove, for what its worth.

Given the 5-year $90 million contract the Angels gave Torri Hunter, who is two years older and when compared with the two, 5-year deals handed out last off-season to center fielders Juan Pierre ($45 million) and Gary Matthews Jr. ($50 million), this deal isn’t that bad when viewed within the framework of the open market.

Furthermore, with the departure of Barry Bonds, the Giants needed to make a splash or they would have lost a lot of fans and for a team that finished 5^th in the NL in attendance in 2007, the cost may have been greater had they not signed a player to improve the team’s hopes for 2008.

The Giants will still very, very likely finish last in the NL West, but despite what some are saying, I see this as a decent move for a team that needs a pulse.

 

*Rate2 is a defensive measure that calculates put-outs and assists relative to league average, adjusts it to a 162-game schedule and sets it so 100 is league average.

Quick Hits

Only a few nights after I covered Kosuke Fukudome here at BA, he signs a 4-year $48 million contract with the Chicago Cubs. He will replace Jacque Jones in right field as well as providing a left-handed bat in a right hand heavy lineup. If the Cubs elect to keep Alfonso Soriano in the lead-off spot, Fukudome will probably bat second or maybe even third for the Cubs providing some on-base percentage at the top of the order. Here is a projected 2008 starting lineup for the Cubs:

Alfonso Soriano, RHB – LF

Kosuke Fukudome, LHB – RF

Derrek Lee, RHB – 1B

Aramis Lee, RHB – 3B

Mark Derosa, RHB – 2B

Geovany Soto, RHB – C

Felix Pie, LHB – CF

Ronny Cedeno, RHB – SS

I like this signing for the Cubs because they have a good power-hitting team all in all but lack on-base percentage to really hit with the big boys like the New York Mets, the Colorado Rockies and the Philadelphia Phillies. And, again, adding that extra left-handed bat will leave them less exposed late in games. Fukudome will also help the teams outfield defense. Can I just add in, am I the only one who thinks Alfonso Soriano will be a good outfielder in his career?

The dollars aren’t out of line but four years, ages 31 through 35, could be some trouble later on in the contract. It’s all too early to guess until we see how Fukudome’s power and plate discipline translate here in the states.

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The Colorado Rockies gave Aaron Cook an extension worth $34.5 million to keep the righty pitching in altitude through 2011, with a mutual option for 2012.

Cook has found success pitching in Coors these past few years but personally, no matter what the groundball tendencies (2.5 GO/AO), I wouldn’t be in that much of a hurry to give a man with 3.3 K/9 that much money.

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Lastly, David Segui comes clean for taking steroids during his career, “I have nothing to hide. I have no problem talking about what I have done, but I never want any other players to think I was out there talking about their business.”

I like that Segui comes clean. With all the finger-pointing that will likely be happening in the coming weeks with the upcoming release of the Mitchell Report, it’s nice to see a player maintain his code of silence. I have my opinions on the steroid issue but honestly, if more players just came clean and admitted that they used steroids, fewer players like Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Raphael Palmeiro and Jason Giambi would have to take the brunt of the blame.

I think every fan has always known, all along, that at least 50% of the Major Leagues had, at one point, tried steroids to help their career. It has always been a suspicion and the players kept confirming its widespread use, although never addressing it. Everyone who is accused is just as likely guilty as not, but we keep getting lame excuse after another and move on until we get big names. If we go about it the way that we have, pointing fingers and punishing those who come clean, we will never know to what extent steroid use was going on. We will never have closure and everything that has happened over the past decade and a half will be mired in suspicion.

If Paul Byrd is on HGH, no one is safe.

Milwaukee Bolsters Bullpen: Eric Gagne 1-Year $10 Million

Free agent Eric Gagne has agree to a $10 million, one-year contract to close for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2008. Gagne will step in to replace Francisco Cordero, the Brewer’s 2007 closer who is headed to the Cincinnati Reds, having agreed to a four-year $46 million contract. The Brewers offered Cordero a four-year $42 million deal but it wasn’t enough to retain their closer.

In Gagne, they are getting an “experienced” closer, who was once one of the most dominant closers in baseball history from 2002-2004 for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He averaged a 1.79 ERA, with a 14.8 K/9 and a 6.3 K/BB ratio over the three year span. In 2005, Gagne had elbow surgery and only managed to pitch 13.1 innings and missed most of 2006, managing only 2 IP before requiring surgery on a herniated disc. In 2007, Gagne pitched 52 innings between his time with the Texas Rangers and the Boston Red Sox with a 3.81 ERA, striking out 51 and walking 21 batters, saving 16 out of 20 games.

I would imagine Gagne’s 2008 numbers will be much closer to his 2007 numbers than his 2002-2004 numbers, but even then, he will be a solid closer for the Brewers and again, there is no such thing as a bad one-year deal.

This move is general manager Doug Melvin’s fifth move in his attempt at bolstering the Milwaukee bullpen. It began with the signing of lefty Randy Choate, then trading catcher Johnny Estrada for Mets pitcher Guillermo Mota, then signing reliever David Riske to a three-year $13 million deal and trading a couple relief prospects for Solomon Torres.

Personally, giving up major resources to improve a bullpen is never a good idea, especially when it involves taking major—err…commitment to sign a 31 year-old journeyman like Riske whose peripheral stats don’t match up with his performance. Riske managed a 2.45 ERA, pitching 69.2 with only a 6.9 K/9 and almost a 2 K/BB ratio in 2007, and 6.1 K/9 and 2.1 K/BB ratio from 2005-2007.

Mota, 34, isn’t much better and Torres, 36, and Choate, 32, are even worse. The Brewers are set as far as their starting lineup and rotation go, but their bullpen could just as easily be as bad as it was in 2007 with its 4.15 ERA, good for 12^th out of 16 NL teams.

The recent model for relief success involves signing or compiling cheap, young, live-arms like the Arizona Diamondbacks did this past season or the model the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Oakland Athletics have used over the past few years and simply hope for the best. Or, convert a highly-regarded starter to pitch out of the pen for the season.

With the rotation problems the Brewers faced in 2007 with the collapses of Chris Capuano and David Bush, along with the injury to ace Ben Sheets, the Brewcrew are going to need pitching coach Mike Maddux to do some serious work to stay in the hunt for the NL Central title and edge the Chicago Cubs.

A major key to the Brewers success hinges on 2003 second overall pick Rickie Weeks, a major break-out candidate or bust in 2008–he will be a big factor for the Brewer’s in 2008.

Gagne, et. al. will be there too.

Andruw Jones to the LA Dodgers: 2-Years $36.2 Million

The Los Angeles Dodgers have agreed to terms with free agent Andruw Jones to a two-year $36.2 million dollar deal. The Dodgers awarded Jones a $12.2 million signing bonus, $9 million in 2007 and $15 million in 2008. The average annual salary of $18.1 million is slightly greater than the $18 million annually received by Torii Hunter from the Angels (5-years/$90 million). The Dodgers were able to get what will be a comparable, although I believe Jones will be superior player, both offensively and defensively, for a fraction of the time-cost, reducing the risk by quite a bit.

Dodger general manager Ned Colletti has succeeded once again in signing a premium player to a short-term deal. He successfully did so last off-season, bringing in Jason Schmidt on a three-year $47 million deal and Rafael Furcal two off-seasons ago to a three-year $39 million deal. While the Dodgers have yet to see a return on the Schmidt signing, it was widely praised at the time, when compared with the deal Barry Zito signed to pitch for the San Francisco Giants for seven-years and $126 million.

This off-season and in this day and age, with free agents getting ridiculous sums of money and long, guaranteed contracts, enough cannot be said for signing short-term deals. In todays game, there is no such thing as a bad one-year deal, and two years? That isn’t bad either, especially when an organization has the chance to land a future Hall of Famer in Jones for his age 31 and 32 seasons.

Jones had a rough year last season, hitting a meager .222/.311/.413, while also managing to pick up his 10th Gold Glove award. I look for a bounce back from Jones who will probably hit somewhere around .265/.340/.500 with 55+ homers for the power starved team over the life of the deal.

The effect this move has on the Dodgers will likely be that Juan Pierre will shift to left field, where his arm is less of a liability but his bat becomes more of a liability out of center field. This in turn will free up either Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp as possible trade chips for a decent starting pitcher or to add depth to the bullpen.

In either case, it will be a shame to see the Dodgers move one of their young, talented players to hold onto an old, expensive Pierre.