Meet the Steinbrenners

 

It seems New York Yankee general manager Brian Cashman didn’t know what he was getting into when he signed a three-year contract extension in 2005 to remain with the Yankees through 2008. Now, under the ownership of Hank and Hal Steinbrenner, the major league’s most powerful executive has been relegated to more of an advisory role when he was promised autonomy over the baseball operations department at the time of the extension.Cashman notes, “When I signed up with this current three-year deal, and this is the last year of it, it was with full authority to run the entire program. George had given me that. But things have changed in this third year now with the emergence of Hal and Hank Steinbrenner and that started this winter…So I’m focused fully on doing everything I possibly can to assist them in their emergence now as decision makers.” Hank has made that very clear, “I always told [Cashman], `I’m going to make the final decisions because when you’re the owner you should.’ He is the general manager, and he has the right to talk me out of it and he has talked me out of some things.” I agree with Hank to an extent, but nothing screams meddling-owner like a statement like this. I’m of the opinion leave the baseball to the baseball men, leave the business to the businessmen. There is a lot of careful consideration that goes on in making these decisions, sometimes calculating dollars in the tens of millions, sometimes calculating expectations to the single run.

There was a time, not so long ago (2004), that it seemed like Cashman had been relegated to a similar advisory role. You know how that ended up? They signed a 35 year-old Gary Sheffield over a 28 year-old Vladimir Guerrero. They also signed Tony Womack, then 35, to a two-year deal–he ended up as their left-fielder, at one point–remember that? They ate that contract when they traded the disgruntled Womack to the Cincinatti Reds.

The fact is, Brian Cashman is very good at what he does. It seemed, for a very short while (2005-2006), that the Yankees, with their thin farm system and aging expensive team, might come back to earth and finally miss the play-offs. It almost happened in 2007. The Yankees survived and begun to produce players of value from their farm system and with the importance of player development re-established, they will continue to do so. With $200 million, they don’t need to fill their 25-man roster on young guns alone.

For that reason, it must come as a surprise to have to answer to a higher power all of a sudden. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out, if it hampers their pursuit of Johan Santana or any future plans. Things will begin to get tricky in the coming seasons as the offensive nucleus, including Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, get into their mid and late thirties and get very expensive. It will take some careful maneuvering and Cashman, now at the end of his contract, may not stick around to see it all through.

Johan Santana Revisited

Talks have been on hold since we last checked in but it seems the New York Yankees have backed out of the deadline they placed in the Johan Santana trade negotiations. That was quick. There are several trades on the table, or at least believed to be on the table. What happens if the Yankees or the Red Sox–pretty much the two heaviest hitters in the American League–acquire Santana? A look at each scenario with projections.

New York Yankees

1. Johan Santana, LHP – 220 IP – 2.60 ERA – 240 K – 6o BB
2. Chien-Ming Wang, RHP – 210 IP – 3.60 ERA – 120K – 60 BB
3. Andy Pettitte, LHP – 180 IP – 4.40 ERA – 130 K – 60 BB
4. Joba Chamberlain, RHP – 180 IP – 3.50 ERA – 160 K -50 BB
5. Mike Mussina, RHP – 140 IP – 4.60 ERA – 90 K – 50 BB

Provided they don’t trade Ian Kennedy, he would step in if something goes wrong. As a college finesse pitcher, he would represent a good fit as a fourth or fifth starter. In limited time, I see Kennedy as a healthy young arm with marginal stuff–fast ball maxes out at 92 mph / sits in the 88-90 mph range.

Ian Kennedy, RHP – 120 IP – 4.20 ERA – 80 K 30 BB

That’s a good rotation with a little depth. Not to mention, the Yankees could easily acquire a marginal starting pitcher and throw money at it. It’s a nice luxury to have.

Should the Red Sox get Santana, their rotation would look like this:

1. Johan Santana, LHP – 220 IP – 3.00 ERA – 240 K – 6o BB
2. Josh Beckett, RHP – 190 IP – 3.40 ERA – 180 K – 50 BB
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP – 200 IP – 3.80 ERA – 160 K – 50 BB
4. Curt Schilling, RHP – 150 IP – 4.00 ERA – 100 K – 30 BB
5. Clay Buchholz, RHP – 180 IP – 3.50 ERA – 180 K – 50 BB

Having Santana is almost excessive since Tim Wakefield and Jon Lester would be bumped from the rotation in the process. The Red Sox may be paying too high a price if they end up wasting two above average starters for a season. With either Wakefield or Lester in the rotation, and the other waiting for Curt Schilling to miss time, lose money–he has a weight / time lost clause. Bad idea on Schilling’s part, but whatever keeps you motivated. Don’t forget, Beckett also has a history of arm trouble.

Tim Wakefield, RHP – 100 IP – 4.80 ERA – 80 K – 60 BB

John Lester, LHP – 120 IP – 4.20 ERA – 90 K – 40 BB

Should a trade go through, the Yankees wouldn’t lose much offensively in a Philip Hughes, Melky Cabrera and one of a couple of good prospects likes Alan Horne or Jose Tabata, but they would have to pick either Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon or Bobby Abreu to take a stab at center field or offer Mike Cameron a short deal and deal Matsui or Damon–who knows? I’d settle with Damon in center but it wouldn’t be pretty.

If the Red Sox pull the trigger, they’d lose Jacoby Ellsbury in center when their hope was to trade Coco Crisp instead. They’re lucky they won’t lose out at a defensively important position in a ballpark with a lot of run scoring. Ellsbury has won the love of Sox fans after tearing it up down the stretch and hitting well in the playoffs for a World Series team. He is an athletic speedy potential lead-off hitter with some possibility for power but not much.

Jacoby Ellsbury, L – .300/.360/.380 – 8 HR – 40 SB

Coco Crisp, S – .290/.340/.380 – 10 HR – 28 SB

Ellsbury has always had very healthy walk and strikeout rates, which bodes well for his potential to hit and improve his plate discipline. If he remains with the club, he will lead off for them a large portion of the time, combining with Kevin Youkilis or JD Drew to provide a potent 1-2 punch. I still like Coco Crisp. I might be alone, but I think he still can be a good hitter with all of Fenway park at his disposal. He can hit a lot of doubles and triples. Should Ellsbury be traded, he will hit 8th or 9th but hopefully not be as bad as he has with Boston offensively. Same goes for Julio Lugo.

Either team would give themselves a huge boost with the addition of Santana, but it would be costly. What would happen to the Twins if they pull the trigger with either the Yankees or the Red Sox? They’d still be a ways from contention but it would offer them a start. First the Yankees, then the Red Sox:

Minnesota Twins

1. Francisco Liriano, LHP – 120 IP – 3.50 ERA – 100 K – 30 BB
2. Boof Bonser, RHP – 180 IP – 4.00 ERA – 150 K – 60 BB
3. Philip Hughes, RHP – 180 IP – 3.60 ERA – 150 K – 50 BB
4. Scott Baker, RHP – 180 IP – 4.40 ERA – 120 K – 50 BB
5. Kevin Slowey, RHP – 180 IP – 4.00 ERA – 140 K – 40 BB

That’s not a bad rotation provided the young arms can hold up under increased pressure. Most notably, Francisco Liriano (remember him?), the lefty who took the AL by storm in 2006 but got hurt before he could regress. He missed all of 2007 with Tommy John surgery, but should pitch in 2008. It’s only a question of how much and how well.

Offensively, the Twins wouldn’t gain much trading with the Yankees as Melky Cabrera is hardly a star. He would fill in and play center field but he won’t dramatically improve an offense that doesn’t have much sock. Should the Twins trade with the Red Sox, they would add a presence at the top of the order with Ellsbury.

Minnesota Twins

1. CF – Jacoby Ellsbury, L – .290/.350/.390 – 6 HR – 40 SB
2. 2B – Alexi Casilla, S – .280/.360/.380 – 0 HR – 40 SB
3. C – Joe Mauer, L – .310/.400/.450 – 15 HR
4. 1B – Justin Morneau, L – .280/.350/.500 – 33 HR
5. 3B – Michael Cuddyer, R – .270/.340/.440 – 18 HR
6. RF – Delmon Young, R – .290/.330/.480 – 25 HR
7. DH – Jason Kubel, L – .280/.350/.440 – 16 HR
8. LF – Craig Monroe, R – .240/.310/.420 – 12 HR
9. SS – Adam Everett, R / Jed Lowrie, R – .240/.290/.330 – 8 HR — .260/.350/.450 – 10 HR

Here is the solution to the Nick Punto problem: don’t play him. Cuddyer can play third. He won’t be good but he won’t be Punto. I’m not sure Casilla will get the starting job off the bat nor am I sure he’d bat second. At worst, they can shift Mauer or maybe even Delmon Young to hit second. Everett will be a good addition either as a defensive player or a backup option. Lowrie would surely start the year in AAA. That’s not a terrible team but I’m not sure about Monroe or what they do if he fails.

I don’t want to project Delmon Young. There are still holes in his game but he is a future superstar. If pressed, I’m optimistically shooting for 25 bombs for the slugging right fielder. The sooner he learns to lay off the bad pitches, the sooner he becomes a superstar. The kid can hit.

Really, if the Yankees can get away with a package that includes Hughes,Cabrera and another player like Jose Tabata, they should jump on it to stay in the race as a major player. They may have to offer more as they have yet to come to an agreement with the Twins. If the Red Sox go for it, they’d be an easy favorite to win the World Series and force the Yankees to compete with the Tigers and Indians for the Wild Card. The Twins need to wait for the best package possible and might hold onto Santana until Spring training until they find the best fit.

Things would really get interesting in the American League if the Angels were to step in and surprise us with a deal.

Player of the Week: Kosuke Fukudome

Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, 30, has decided against playing for the Yoriumi Giants in Japan in favor of pursuing a career in Major League Baseball. It is believed the Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres are trying to sign the left-handed hitting right fielder.

Fukudome was the Nippon League’s 2006 Central League MVP, posting an impressive .351/.438/.653 line, along with 47 doubles and 31 home runs in 496 ABs. An elbow injury kept the star from playing the final two months of the 2007 season but he still managed a .294/.443/.520 line with 13 homers in 269 ABs.

What can we reasonably expect from Fukudome here in the states? As we’ve learned from many of the Japanese stars who have made the trip across the Pacific, we can’t count on the power to translate at the big league level as the strength of competition in Japan is not as great as here in the US and their ballparks tend to be smaller. None the less, Baseball Prospectus’s Clay Davenport conducted an excellent study comparing the Japanese leagues with the majors and found the level of competition to be “consistently rated as tougher than the American Triple-A leagues.”

For that reason, I find it interesting that the power has translated as poorly in the US as it has with the players who have made the trip. This has been the case most recently with Tampa Bay Rays infielder Akinori Iwamura who averaged 35 home runs in Japan from 2004-2006. In his Major League debut, managed all of 7 long balls, although his .285/.359/.411 line will play at second base where he will likely start in 2008. I see Iwamura as capable of doubling that figure in 2008 provided he plays regularly.

The only Japanese player to hit for superior power has been Hideki Matsui, who averaged 43 home runs in Japan from 2000-2002 with a career high 50 in 2002 before coming to the majors. Matsui has averaged close to 24 home runs in each of his full seasons in the majors with a career high 31 in 2004 but has managed to be a solid corner outfielder for the Yankees over his run with them.

I can’t expect any more than 10-15 home runs from Fukudome in 2008 but I wouldn’t be astonished if he hit close to 20 if he signs with the Cubs or White Sox. His real strength lies in his excellent plate discipline where he will be able to on-base enough to retain a lot of value. He has a smooth line-drive swing that could lead to a ton of doubles as well. I see a batting average around .300 with an on-base percentage between .370 – .390. He would be best served as a lead-off hitter based on his batting eye and likely lack of power.

He also features a plus arm with great throwing accuracy which will play well in right field. He won’t feature the speed or overall athleticism of Ichiro Suzuki, but he will be a solid right fielder having won four gold gloves in Japan and will probably make a decent run at a rookie of the year award.

For more information, check out Baseball Prospectus’s Mike Plugh’s article on Kosuke Fukudome—subscription required.