Primed for Big Seasons: American League 2008

As I mentioned in my last post, Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan named Jeff Francoeur his number one breakout candidate for 2008. I thought that was a great pick and that was a topic I’d been looking forward to addressing prior to the 2008 season. Since Sheehan said he’d work on that article for this week, I felt I had to get my ideas down before he did.

There is nothing more important and significant to a player’s career than a major league breakout, meaning a player takes a dramatic step forward in their performance and becomes the star they were projected to be. This can happen as a result of a player’s health improving, experience and ability finally coming together, pending free-agency and sometimes even the acquisition of a new pitch (for a pitcher) or a change of scenery. Here is a look at some guys who I feel have laid the groundwork to have huge seasons in the American League in 2008.

10 – Dioner Navarro, 24, C-S, TB: Since starting full-time with the Dodgers as a 22 year-old, Navarro has been trying to make it as a major league catcher. While his time in Tampa has been anything but promising (.227/.286/.356 in 2007), following the All-Star break, he hit .285/.340/.475 with 8 of his 9 home runs coming in that span. I’m not saying he’s the next big thing but I’ve always felt he could be a solid regular for a team and next season, he seems primed to make that jump.

9 – Masahide Kobayashi, 33, RHP, CLE: Signing a two-year deal with the Cleveland Indians, Kobayashi is the candidate most likely to step in as the team’s closer, replacing Joe “Get-er-Done” Borowski. Mike Plugh of Baseball Prospectus writes that Kobayashi features a high-90’s fast ball and a slider and given seven seasons as the closer for the Chiba Lotte Marines, he may take the American League by storm in 2008 for a strong Cleveland ball club.

8 – Boof Bonser, 26, RHP, MIN: The 6’4” 260 pound right-hander has always had good stuff and command of his stuff but the long ball has always been a source of trouble. While his 2007 season looked bad on paper, 5.10 ERA, his K/9 (7.08) and track record bode well for the big righty. Remember, in 2006, between AAA and his time in the bigs, Bonser pitched 186.2 innings with 167 K, 59 BB, 22 HR and a 3.90 ERA. Also, with Delmon Young in left, where he should be above average and the acquisition of Coco Crisp or Jacoby Ellsbury as likely possibilities, Minnesota’s outfield defense should be helpful to the cause.

7 – Evan Longoria, 22, 3B-R, TB – Alex Gordon demonstrated in 2007 that even “can’t miss” prospects sometimes can struggle at the big league level but he’s also my pick for AL rookie of the year. He can mash, hitting for power to all fields—last season, Longoria hit a combined .299/.402/.520 between AA and AAA—and his defense should be above average.

6 – Delmon Young, 22, OF-R, MIN: There is one glaring hole in Delmon Young’s game: pitch recognition. His development, namely his power, will depend heavily upon how that area of his game improves. In order for Young to reach the potential most see in him, earning comparisons to Albert Belle and Vladimir Guerrero, it will take two breakouts: one where he becomes a 20-25 home run hitter and the one where he hits 35-40 home runs. I believe with a change of scenery and something to prove, Young will reach that first plateau in 2008. He will still need to learn, along the way, that there are pitches you can drive and situations that call for expanding the zone, but to simply swing away isn’t how the vast majority of power-hitters approach hitting.

5 – Phillip Hughes/Joba Chamberlain, 22, RHP, NYA: Both of these young arms have a great deal of promise, with Hughes considered the best pitching prospect in baseball in 2006 and Chamberlain considered to be one of the top two pitching prospects in 2007. Hughes was inconsistent in his debut and eventually as sidelined with an ankle sprain. Chamberlain dominated at every level, until famously joining the Yankee bullpen and making a name for himself. He never got a crack at the rotation but based on how well he pitched, the expectations will be high. For that reason, neither is a huge “break-out” candidate, in the sense that both have a great deal of expectations to live up to, but both are primed to succeed at the big league level. It will be interesting to see who will have the better season.

4 – Alex Gordon, 24, 3B-L, KC: Gordon got off to an awful start, hitting a meager .232/.321/.358 prior to the All-Star break but saw improvement in the second half, hitting .264/.305/.472, showing that the power is there. He still has room to improve, but the tools are there for him to reach that level many saw for him as 2007’s number one prospect.

3 – Howie Kendrick: 24, 2B-R, LAA: Kendrick managed to demonstrate his amazing ability to make contact hitting .322/.347/.450 in 338 AB. The power was not there for him as he hit only 5 home runs in that span. This was entirely due to two wrist injuries that kept him from settling in. In each case, Kendrick would hit-hit-hit, get hurt, then slump upon return, then hit-hit-hit again. If manager Mike Scioscia can get Kendrick (a career .359 minor league hitter) from batting sixth in the order as he did for most of 2007 to hitting second, he will be a great table-setter for Vlad. I see a shot at a batting title and 20 home runs for Kendrick in 2008.

2 – Jeremy Bonderman/Felix Hernandez, 25/22, RHP, DET/SEA: I have placed these two pitchers together because both made their major league debuts before the age of 20, both have phenomenal stuff and both have failed to ascend to the level that many see as elite starting pitchers. The physical tools are there, but the experience has yet to come for these two. I would hope that it doesn’t take King Felix as long as it has taken Bonderman (I’ve been expecting break-outs for the past two seasons), but it only further emphasizes how difficult it is to pitch at the level that is expected of these two young players. Look for that ascension in 2008.

1 – Daisuke Matsuzaka, 27, RHP, BOS: The expectations were unthinkably high for Dice-K based on the $103.1 million the Red Sox invested to secure the Japanese right hander and many saw his 15-13 record, his 4.40 ERA and his mid-season slump and were disappointed. He definitely broke down in the second half, posting a 5.19 ERA in 85 innings with a 78/42 K/BB after the break but before that slump, he pitched every bit as well as advertised. In 119.2 pre-All-Star Game innings, Matsuzaka had a 3.84 ERA, and 123/38 K/BB. Baseball America’s top prospect in 2007 will see a vast improvement in 2008 as he learns the league, acclimates to the country and improves upon his control over his arsenal of pitches.

Honorable mention: Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Quentin, John Danks, Adam Jones and Edwin Jackson.

Tomorrow, the NL.

Mike Cameron Signs With Milwaukee

The Milwaukee Brewers have reportedly agreed to a one-year contract with CF Mike Cameron. Cameron will receive a $1.25 million signing bonus and $5 million in salary in 2008 with a $10 million team option for 2009. Due to Cameron’s 25-game suspension for amphetamine use, his prorated salary will be $4.22 million.

Cameron, 35, is coming off a .242/.328/.431 line in 2007 with 21 home runs. This isn’t far out of line with his career .251/.344/.455 line, which bodes well for the Brewers who up until this point, had largely focused on improving their bullpen but had failed to match a player of RF Kosuke Fukudome’s stature in their competition with the Cubs. With this move, the Brew Crew can ably replace OF Geoff Jenkin’s production but more importantly, improve a team defense that was one of the worst in the National League in 2007. With this move, they will shift OF/IF Bill Hall from center field–where he was lost–to third. They will then move rookie of the year, Ryan Braun from third–where he was lost–to left field.

Signing Cameron, the Brewers will have greatly improved their outfield defense and even if they elect to keep Braun at third and move Hall to left, their pitching staff can breath a little easier. I have heard Brewers general manager Doug Melvin say that he’d like Braun to remain at third because he believes that the tools are there to become an adequate third base man, but based on his performance as a big leaguer (.895 fielding percentage), that may be a stretch at this point. Moving Braun to left would certainly help the Brewers in 2008, but what will they do with 1B Matt LaPorta when he inevitably knocks down the door?

Financially, this move really works well for the small-market Brewers, only having to commit to one year and about a third of what the LA Angels will be paying CF Torri Hunter in 2008. With their very talented core of young players, they will likely see an increase in attendance as their fanbase begins to connect with the Brewers as a competitive team in the NL Central and should Cameron provide the .240/.330/.440 line we can generally expect of him with plus defense, picking up that 2009 option may make sense for them, even at $10 million. If not, he will certainly help their chances of beating the Cubs in 2008.

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Links and Such

John Sickels ranks the Tampa Bay Ray’s farm system. He gives their top three prospects A ratings. I would have guessed on 3B Evan Longoria and LHP David Price but I was a little surprised to see LHP Jacob McGee as an A. Below that, they have four B+ players. Wow.

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This is amazing. The formula to determine the grittiest players in the game. AWE-some. –Flotsam Media
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Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan picks Atlanta Braves RF Jeff Francoeur as his #1 breakout candidate in 2008 (subscription required). I think that’s a great pick and after some thought, I really like the Braves as a viable threat against the New York Mets provided they don’t sneak in and acquire LHP Johan Santana. They still need a centerfielder and Mark Kotsay isn’t the answer. They should have give Cameron the deal he got with Milwaukee.

I was planning on writing a break-out list, but my hand is being forced to do it sooner rather than later knowing that Sheehan will be finishing his list next week. I will put that list together over the weekend. Predicting breakouts is the key to winning in fantasy baseball. More on that later.

Johan Santana Revisited

Talks have been on hold since we last checked in but it seems the New York Yankees have backed out of the deadline they placed in the Johan Santana trade negotiations. That was quick. There are several trades on the table, or at least believed to be on the table. What happens if the Yankees or the Red Sox–pretty much the two heaviest hitters in the American League–acquire Santana? A look at each scenario with projections.

New York Yankees

1. Johan Santana, LHP – 220 IP – 2.60 ERA – 240 K – 6o BB
2. Chien-Ming Wang, RHP – 210 IP – 3.60 ERA – 120K – 60 BB
3. Andy Pettitte, LHP – 180 IP – 4.40 ERA – 130 K – 60 BB
4. Joba Chamberlain, RHP – 180 IP – 3.50 ERA – 160 K -50 BB
5. Mike Mussina, RHP – 140 IP – 4.60 ERA – 90 K – 50 BB

Provided they don’t trade Ian Kennedy, he would step in if something goes wrong. As a college finesse pitcher, he would represent a good fit as a fourth or fifth starter. In limited time, I see Kennedy as a healthy young arm with marginal stuff–fast ball maxes out at 92 mph / sits in the 88-90 mph range.

Ian Kennedy, RHP – 120 IP – 4.20 ERA – 80 K 30 BB

That’s a good rotation with a little depth. Not to mention, the Yankees could easily acquire a marginal starting pitcher and throw money at it. It’s a nice luxury to have.

Should the Red Sox get Santana, their rotation would look like this:

1. Johan Santana, LHP – 220 IP – 3.00 ERA – 240 K – 6o BB
2. Josh Beckett, RHP – 190 IP – 3.40 ERA – 180 K – 50 BB
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP – 200 IP – 3.80 ERA – 160 K – 50 BB
4. Curt Schilling, RHP – 150 IP – 4.00 ERA – 100 K – 30 BB
5. Clay Buchholz, RHP – 180 IP – 3.50 ERA – 180 K – 50 BB

Having Santana is almost excessive since Tim Wakefield and Jon Lester would be bumped from the rotation in the process. The Red Sox may be paying too high a price if they end up wasting two above average starters for a season. With either Wakefield or Lester in the rotation, and the other waiting for Curt Schilling to miss time, lose money–he has a weight / time lost clause. Bad idea on Schilling’s part, but whatever keeps you motivated. Don’t forget, Beckett also has a history of arm trouble.

Tim Wakefield, RHP – 100 IP – 4.80 ERA – 80 K – 60 BB

John Lester, LHP – 120 IP – 4.20 ERA – 90 K – 40 BB

Should a trade go through, the Yankees wouldn’t lose much offensively in a Philip Hughes, Melky Cabrera and one of a couple of good prospects likes Alan Horne or Jose Tabata, but they would have to pick either Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon or Bobby Abreu to take a stab at center field or offer Mike Cameron a short deal and deal Matsui or Damon–who knows? I’d settle with Damon in center but it wouldn’t be pretty.

If the Red Sox pull the trigger, they’d lose Jacoby Ellsbury in center when their hope was to trade Coco Crisp instead. They’re lucky they won’t lose out at a defensively important position in a ballpark with a lot of run scoring. Ellsbury has won the love of Sox fans after tearing it up down the stretch and hitting well in the playoffs for a World Series team. He is an athletic speedy potential lead-off hitter with some possibility for power but not much.

Jacoby Ellsbury, L – .300/.360/.380 – 8 HR – 40 SB

Coco Crisp, S – .290/.340/.380 – 10 HR – 28 SB

Ellsbury has always had very healthy walk and strikeout rates, which bodes well for his potential to hit and improve his plate discipline. If he remains with the club, he will lead off for them a large portion of the time, combining with Kevin Youkilis or JD Drew to provide a potent 1-2 punch. I still like Coco Crisp. I might be alone, but I think he still can be a good hitter with all of Fenway park at his disposal. He can hit a lot of doubles and triples. Should Ellsbury be traded, he will hit 8th or 9th but hopefully not be as bad as he has with Boston offensively. Same goes for Julio Lugo.

Either team would give themselves a huge boost with the addition of Santana, but it would be costly. What would happen to the Twins if they pull the trigger with either the Yankees or the Red Sox? They’d still be a ways from contention but it would offer them a start. First the Yankees, then the Red Sox:

Minnesota Twins

1. Francisco Liriano, LHP – 120 IP – 3.50 ERA – 100 K – 30 BB
2. Boof Bonser, RHP – 180 IP – 4.00 ERA – 150 K – 60 BB
3. Philip Hughes, RHP – 180 IP – 3.60 ERA – 150 K – 50 BB
4. Scott Baker, RHP – 180 IP – 4.40 ERA – 120 K – 50 BB
5. Kevin Slowey, RHP – 180 IP – 4.00 ERA – 140 K – 40 BB

That’s not a bad rotation provided the young arms can hold up under increased pressure. Most notably, Francisco Liriano (remember him?), the lefty who took the AL by storm in 2006 but got hurt before he could regress. He missed all of 2007 with Tommy John surgery, but should pitch in 2008. It’s only a question of how much and how well.

Offensively, the Twins wouldn’t gain much trading with the Yankees as Melky Cabrera is hardly a star. He would fill in and play center field but he won’t dramatically improve an offense that doesn’t have much sock. Should the Twins trade with the Red Sox, they would add a presence at the top of the order with Ellsbury.

Minnesota Twins

1. CF – Jacoby Ellsbury, L – .290/.350/.390 – 6 HR – 40 SB
2. 2B – Alexi Casilla, S – .280/.360/.380 – 0 HR – 40 SB
3. C – Joe Mauer, L – .310/.400/.450 – 15 HR
4. 1B – Justin Morneau, L – .280/.350/.500 – 33 HR
5. 3B – Michael Cuddyer, R – .270/.340/.440 – 18 HR
6. RF – Delmon Young, R – .290/.330/.480 – 25 HR
7. DH – Jason Kubel, L – .280/.350/.440 – 16 HR
8. LF – Craig Monroe, R – .240/.310/.420 – 12 HR
9. SS – Adam Everett, R / Jed Lowrie, R – .240/.290/.330 – 8 HR — .260/.350/.450 – 10 HR

Here is the solution to the Nick Punto problem: don’t play him. Cuddyer can play third. He won’t be good but he won’t be Punto. I’m not sure Casilla will get the starting job off the bat nor am I sure he’d bat second. At worst, they can shift Mauer or maybe even Delmon Young to hit second. Everett will be a good addition either as a defensive player or a backup option. Lowrie would surely start the year in AAA. That’s not a terrible team but I’m not sure about Monroe or what they do if he fails.

I don’t want to project Delmon Young. There are still holes in his game but he is a future superstar. If pressed, I’m optimistically shooting for 25 bombs for the slugging right fielder. The sooner he learns to lay off the bad pitches, the sooner he becomes a superstar. The kid can hit.

Really, if the Yankees can get away with a package that includes Hughes,Cabrera and another player like Jose Tabata, they should jump on it to stay in the race as a major player. They may have to offer more as they have yet to come to an agreement with the Twins. If the Red Sox go for it, they’d be an easy favorite to win the World Series and force the Yankees to compete with the Tigers and Indians for the Wild Card. The Twins need to wait for the best package possible and might hold onto Santana until Spring training until they find the best fit.

Things would really get interesting in the American League if the Angels were to step in and surprise us with a deal.

What’s the Word? Tampa Bay Rays Aim to Edge Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays signed outfielder Cliff Floyd to a 1-Year $2.75 million contract with $2 million in incentives. Floyd will get partial play-time on both outfield corners, splitting time with OF Rocco Baldelli and Jonny Gomes and may also see some time at DH. Floyd, 35, spent 2007 with the Chicago Cubs, hitting .284/.373/.422 with 9 home runs in 282 AB.

With this move, the Rays have what looks like a nice mix of cheap, effective veteran talent to go along with a competitive core of young players with a lot of upside and this may be the season that we’ve all been expecting from them since the birth of the franchise. We’ve been watching them for a while, always thinking, “they’ll be good one of these days.” We may get a glimpse of that this season.

I’m not saying they’ll de-throne the Yankees or the Red Sox any time soon. They lack the financial resources to do that at this time. It may be possible some day should the team begin to see progress and build up a fanbase and revenue to lock up some of their young talent but for now, they should have their eyes dead-set on third place. I think they can do it.

They have to beat the always-slightly-above-average-at-all-positions Toronto Blue Jays, who generally finish in third give or take. They are always good but never have quite what it takes to make a play-off berth.

Let’s start by comparing the two teams rotations and back end of their bullpens with some loose 2008 projections provided.

Tampa Bay Rays

1. Scott Kazmir, LHP – 200 IP – 3.50 ERA – 220 K – 90 BB
2. James Shields, RHP – 200 IP – 4.00 ERA – 150 K – 60 BB
3. Matt Garza, RHP – 180 IP – 3.90 ERA – 160 K – 60 BB
4. Edwin Jackson, RHP – 150IP – 5.00 ERA – 120 K – 80BB
5. Andy Sonnanstine, LHP – 120 IP – 4.90 ERA – 90K – 40BB

Bullpen

1. CL – Troy Percival – 50 IP – 3.50 ERA – 40 K – 15 BB – 26 SV
2. SU – Dan Wheeler – 70 IP – 3.00 ERA – 60 K – 20 BB
3. SU – Al Reyes – 60 IP – 3.80 ERA – 60 IP – 20 BB

The top of the rotation is solid, with Kazmir capable of posting ace numbers. Last season, he messed around with his mechanics early in the season, but went back to just pitching and his numbers improved dramatically later on in the season. I see Shields as a candidate to regress in 2008, but his 2007 was impressive. The question will be whether or not the control-artist can maintain that high of a strikeout rate with a change-up. He won’t be walking anyone, that’s for sure. Garza will enter the rotation from the beginning of the season and the only worry will be how his arm holds up under a heavier workload, but he should be good for a 3.60 – 4.00 ERA and he will be closely monitored. With guys like Jackson and Sonnanstine, they may only remain in the rotation as long as they’re able to hold down the young guns with guys like Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and Jacob McGee surely knocking, although the latter two are still a ways away. Beware, David Price is coming soon.

As for the bullpen, Percival is a big health risk, having missed all of 2006, but he pitched 40 quality innings in 2007, so he may be a Joe Borowski-type closer for them. I think Reyes will pitch as he did in 2007 and Wheeler will pitch more in line with his 2006 numbers since he won’t be moved around as often as in 2007. Beyond those three, they have Eduardo Morlan, who they got in the Garza-Young trade–I think he’ll step in and make an impact in 2008–but not much else.

Here is Toronto’s rotation for 2008:

1. Roy Halladay, RHP – 220 IP – 3.50 ERA – 130 K – 40 BB
2. AJ Burnett, RHP – 160 IP – 3.60 ERA – 160 K – 60 BB
3. Dustin McGowan, RHP – 190 IP – 4.00 ERA – 140 K – 60 BB
4. Gustavo Chacin, LHP – 140 IP – 4.90 ERA – 90 K – 60 BB
5. Jesse Litsch, RHP – 160 IP – 4.60 ERA – 100 K – 60 BB

Bullpen

1. CL – BJ Ryan, LHP – 70 IP – 2.40 ERA – 90 K – 30 BB – 35 SV
2. SU – Jeremy Accardo, RHP – 70 IP – 2.90 ERA – 60 K – 25 BB
3. SU – Casey Janssen, RHP – 60 IP – 3.80 ERA – 50 K – 20 BB

The rotation situation in Toronto is much more dire, with Doc Halladay and McGowan as the only guys who probably won’t miss time. If Burnett can remain healthy, they will have a solid #1 – 3, but even then, without much depth in the pipeline, they can’t afford to lose anyone in the rotation. In the bullpen, if Ryan comes back strong, it will give them a presence in the bullpen that Tampa Bay can not match.

Here is a comparison of the two teams lineups. I will put together what I think their starting nine should be, again, with my projections.

Tampa Bay Rays:

1. LF – Carl Crawford, L – .310/.360/.480 – 16 HR – 55 SB
2. RF – Rocco Baldelli, R – .290/.340/.460 – 15 HR – 20 SB (400 AB)
3. CF – B.J. Upton, R – .290/.360/.490 – 25 HR – 25 SB
4. 1B – Carlos Pena, L – .270/.390/.530 – 32 HR
5. DH – Cliff Floyd/Jonny Gomes, L/R – .270/.350/.440 – 10 HR / .240/.330/.460 – 12 HR
6. 3B – Evan Longoria, R – .280/.360/.470 – 18 HR (400 AB)
7. 2B – Akinori Iwamura, L – .290/.360/.420 – 12 HR
8. SS – Jason Barlett, R – .270/.340/.370 – 18 SB
9. C – Dioner Navarro, S – .250/.330/.350

It’s difficult to project some players, like Upton, who broke out in 2007, but struck out way too often to sustain that kind of success. His patience has always been good so if he continues to make strides, the sky is the limit. I see Pena as a big regression candidate and I don’t know how I feel about listing him with even as many as 32 home runs but the man can hit. I’m a huge fan of Longoria and I say, the sooner he’s up the better. He is my pick for AL Rookie of the Year. I also like Navarro, as a former Dodger, and he may just turn the corner after a strong second half in 2007. This is a team that is very well-balanced, looks pretty strong on paper and has a lot of upside.

The Toronto Blue Jays:

1. SS – David Eckstein, R – .290/.350/.360 – 1 HR
2. CF – Vernon Wells, R – .280/.330/.460 – 23 HR
3. RF – Alex Rios, R – .300/.350/.500 – 26 HR – 15 SB
4. DH – Frank Thomas, R – .250/.370/.520 – 25 HR (400 AB)
5. 3B – Troy Glaus, R – .255/.350/.480 – 30 HR
6. 1B – Lyle Overbay, R – .270/.350/.450 – 15 HR
7. LF – Adam Lind, L – .280/.350/.470 – 22 HR
8. 2B – Aaron Hill, R – .290/.340/.440 – 12 HR
9. C – Greg Zaun, S – .240/.310/.380 – 8 HR

While Toronto’s lineup has more power than Tampa’s, they are also a very right-handed heavy team and following a lot of poor performances in 2007 from guys like Wells, Lind and Overbay, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt looking for improvement. Also, they’ll need Glaus and Thomas to stay healthy. Toronto has a lot of question marks here and if Overbay fails to recover from his injury or Wells remains his usual mediocre self, they’ll be in trouble.

Defensively, Toronto rated the best in baseball according to defensive efficiency, while Tampa Bay was dead-lastin 2007. Tampa will not be fielding the same defense this season though. With Longoria stepping in at third (I think plus defender) and Iwamura relieving Upton at second, they will be much better off. Also, the additions of Barlett and a healthy Bardelli will bolster the defense. I think the Rays have a chance to at least be in the middle of the pack.

With that, look for Tampa Bay to beat out the Toronto Blue Jays in 2008 thanks to a break out or two (I say Evan Longoria and Matt Garza) along with the rest of their core of young players, supported by a Pena and a Percival. They will be a fun team to watch in 2008.

Dodgers Sign Hiroki Kuroda to 3-Year $53.3 Million Deal

The Los Angeles Dodgers outbid the Seattle Mariners to attract Japanese free agent Hiroki Kuroda to the states, agreeing to a 3-year $35.3 million contract. Kuroda, 33, will step in to become the Dodger’s fifth starter behind Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley and Jason Schmidt.Kuroda is believed to be the best of a potential crop of Japanese pitchers who want to pitch in the US this year although the projections for 2008 and beyond are mixed.

From a scouting standpoint, Prospect Insider says:

“Kuroda sits 90-92 with a four-seam fastball that shows good leverage, although only a fair amount of sink. He has solid command of the fastball and is not afraid to elevate the pitch to change planes to give the hitter something else to look at, which is ideal since the 33-year-old does not throw a curve ball.

Kuroda’s fork-split is his best pitch and the one in which he will record the majority of his strikeouts. He’s capable of throwing it for strikes, but it’s much more effective as a change-of-pace offering that falls off the table into the dirt.

Kuroda is the class of the three free agents and will get the most interest but he profiles as a No. 3 at best, depending mostly on how well he adapts to the patient approach of the hitters in MLB.”

Dodger assistant general manager Logan White had this to say:

“I put my reputation on the guy. He’s legit. He has a very good delivery, an easy arm motion. He throws from a three-quarters angle. He runs his fastball anywhere from 89-95 miles per hour and stays around 93. He has a slider/cutter at 89 that has a lot of sharp, crisp bite. His out pitch is what he calls a forkball that has real diving, late action at the right-handed hitter.

He’s a strike thrower, and he’s very athletic, a Gold Glove-like fielder. The biggest thing, for me, is that with runners on base, he buckles down. He really is a warrior.”

This seems to be in line with most of what I’ve seen written on Kuroda. He has a good fastball and a good forkball as well as slider and a shuuto, which is like a changeup with screwball action. His command is said to be good, but with his stuff, we will have to see how it translates at the big league level. I do feel more comfortable seeing that Logan White really likes this guy’s stuff.

Still, his statistics in Japan were far from dominating and it will be interesting to see how it all translates in the Major Leagues. Andrew, over at True Blue LA was not convinced:

“Kuroda is a player entering his mid 30s that had trouble missing bats against inferior competition. The only starters that have come from Japan with strikeout rates worse than Kuroda’s are Keiichi Yabu and Masato Yoshii, neither of whom were exactly successful in their time in the states.”

With fairly unimpressive numbers in Japan, it is uncertain whether or not he will be able to sustain any real success at the big league level, much less justify the slightly less than $13 million a season he will be earning. Also, with Kuroda set to step in as the #5 starter, Esteban Loaiza will start the year in the bullpen, making $7.5 million. The Dodgers saw in 2007 that pitching depth really comes in handy but with the enigmatic Hong-Chih Kuo out of options and Scott Elbert and James McDonald almost ready for the bigs, the Dodgers may have been better served going with what they have.

My projection for Kuroda in 2008 goes something like this:

180 IP – 4.40 ERA – 130K – 60BB – 24HR

Even as a league average starter, Kuroda does make the Dodgers better in 2008 and his signing allows the team to improve the rotation without dealing any young players to acquire Erik Bedard or some such pitcher and the Dodgers don’t have to worry too much about money.

Quick Hits

Only a few nights after I covered Kosuke Fukudome here at BA, he signs a 4-year $48 million contract with the Chicago Cubs. He will replace Jacque Jones in right field as well as providing a left-handed bat in a right hand heavy lineup. If the Cubs elect to keep Alfonso Soriano in the lead-off spot, Fukudome will probably bat second or maybe even third for the Cubs providing some on-base percentage at the top of the order. Here is a projected 2008 starting lineup for the Cubs:

Alfonso Soriano, RHB – LF

Kosuke Fukudome, LHB – RF

Derrek Lee, RHB – 1B

Aramis Lee, RHB – 3B

Mark Derosa, RHB – 2B

Geovany Soto, RHB – C

Felix Pie, LHB – CF

Ronny Cedeno, RHB – SS

I like this signing for the Cubs because they have a good power-hitting team all in all but lack on-base percentage to really hit with the big boys like the New York Mets, the Colorado Rockies and the Philadelphia Phillies. And, again, adding that extra left-handed bat will leave them less exposed late in games. Fukudome will also help the teams outfield defense. Can I just add in, am I the only one who thinks Alfonso Soriano will be a good outfielder in his career?

The dollars aren’t out of line but four years, ages 31 through 35, could be some trouble later on in the contract. It’s all too early to guess until we see how Fukudome’s power and plate discipline translate here in the states.

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The Colorado Rockies gave Aaron Cook an extension worth $34.5 million to keep the righty pitching in altitude through 2011, with a mutual option for 2012.

Cook has found success pitching in Coors these past few years but personally, no matter what the groundball tendencies (2.5 GO/AO), I wouldn’t be in that much of a hurry to give a man with 3.3 K/9 that much money.

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Lastly, David Segui comes clean for taking steroids during his career, “I have nothing to hide. I have no problem talking about what I have done, but I never want any other players to think I was out there talking about their business.”

I like that Segui comes clean. With all the finger-pointing that will likely be happening in the coming weeks with the upcoming release of the Mitchell Report, it’s nice to see a player maintain his code of silence. I have my opinions on the steroid issue but honestly, if more players just came clean and admitted that they used steroids, fewer players like Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Raphael Palmeiro and Jason Giambi would have to take the brunt of the blame.

I think every fan has always known, all along, that at least 50% of the Major Leagues had, at one point, tried steroids to help their career. It has always been a suspicion and the players kept confirming its widespread use, although never addressing it. Everyone who is accused is just as likely guilty as not, but we keep getting lame excuse after another and move on until we get big names. If we go about it the way that we have, pointing fingers and punishing those who come clean, we will never know to what extent steroid use was going on. We will never have closure and everything that has happened over the past decade and a half will be mired in suspicion.

If Paul Byrd is on HGH, no one is safe.

Player of the Week: Kosuke Fukudome

Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, 30, has decided against playing for the Yoriumi Giants in Japan in favor of pursuing a career in Major League Baseball. It is believed the Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres are trying to sign the left-handed hitting right fielder.

Fukudome was the Nippon League’s 2006 Central League MVP, posting an impressive .351/.438/.653 line, along with 47 doubles and 31 home runs in 496 ABs. An elbow injury kept the star from playing the final two months of the 2007 season but he still managed a .294/.443/.520 line with 13 homers in 269 ABs.

What can we reasonably expect from Fukudome here in the states? As we’ve learned from many of the Japanese stars who have made the trip across the Pacific, we can’t count on the power to translate at the big league level as the strength of competition in Japan is not as great as here in the US and their ballparks tend to be smaller. None the less, Baseball Prospectus’s Clay Davenport conducted an excellent study comparing the Japanese leagues with the majors and found the level of competition to be “consistently rated as tougher than the American Triple-A leagues.”

For that reason, I find it interesting that the power has translated as poorly in the US as it has with the players who have made the trip. This has been the case most recently with Tampa Bay Rays infielder Akinori Iwamura who averaged 35 home runs in Japan from 2004-2006. In his Major League debut, managed all of 7 long balls, although his .285/.359/.411 line will play at second base where he will likely start in 2008. I see Iwamura as capable of doubling that figure in 2008 provided he plays regularly.

The only Japanese player to hit for superior power has been Hideki Matsui, who averaged 43 home runs in Japan from 2000-2002 with a career high 50 in 2002 before coming to the majors. Matsui has averaged close to 24 home runs in each of his full seasons in the majors with a career high 31 in 2004 but has managed to be a solid corner outfielder for the Yankees over his run with them.

I can’t expect any more than 10-15 home runs from Fukudome in 2008 but I wouldn’t be astonished if he hit close to 20 if he signs with the Cubs or White Sox. His real strength lies in his excellent plate discipline where he will be able to on-base enough to retain a lot of value. He has a smooth line-drive swing that could lead to a ton of doubles as well. I see a batting average around .300 with an on-base percentage between .370 – .390. He would be best served as a lead-off hitter based on his batting eye and likely lack of power.

He also features a plus arm with great throwing accuracy which will play well in right field. He won’t feature the speed or overall athleticism of Ichiro Suzuki, but he will be a solid right fielder having won four gold gloves in Japan and will probably make a decent run at a rookie of the year award.

For more information, check out Baseball Prospectus’s Mike Plugh’s article on Kosuke Fukudome—subscription required.