Primed for Big Seasons: American League 2008

As I mentioned in my last post, Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan named Jeff Francoeur his number one breakout candidate for 2008. I thought that was a great pick and that was a topic I’d been looking forward to addressing prior to the 2008 season. Since Sheehan said he’d work on that article for this week, I felt I had to get my ideas down before he did.

There is nothing more important and significant to a player’s career than a major league breakout, meaning a player takes a dramatic step forward in their performance and becomes the star they were projected to be. This can happen as a result of a player’s health improving, experience and ability finally coming together, pending free-agency and sometimes even the acquisition of a new pitch (for a pitcher) or a change of scenery. Here is a look at some guys who I feel have laid the groundwork to have huge seasons in the American League in 2008.

10 – Dioner Navarro, 24, C-S, TB: Since starting full-time with the Dodgers as a 22 year-old, Navarro has been trying to make it as a major league catcher. While his time in Tampa has been anything but promising (.227/.286/.356 in 2007), following the All-Star break, he hit .285/.340/.475 with 8 of his 9 home runs coming in that span. I’m not saying he’s the next big thing but I’ve always felt he could be a solid regular for a team and next season, he seems primed to make that jump.

9 – Masahide Kobayashi, 33, RHP, CLE: Signing a two-year deal with the Cleveland Indians, Kobayashi is the candidate most likely to step in as the team’s closer, replacing Joe “Get-er-Done” Borowski. Mike Plugh of Baseball Prospectus writes that Kobayashi features a high-90’s fast ball and a slider and given seven seasons as the closer for the Chiba Lotte Marines, he may take the American League by storm in 2008 for a strong Cleveland ball club.

8 – Boof Bonser, 26, RHP, MIN: The 6’4” 260 pound right-hander has always had good stuff and command of his stuff but the long ball has always been a source of trouble. While his 2007 season looked bad on paper, 5.10 ERA, his K/9 (7.08) and track record bode well for the big righty. Remember, in 2006, between AAA and his time in the bigs, Bonser pitched 186.2 innings with 167 K, 59 BB, 22 HR and a 3.90 ERA. Also, with Delmon Young in left, where he should be above average and the acquisition of Coco Crisp or Jacoby Ellsbury as likely possibilities, Minnesota’s outfield defense should be helpful to the cause.

7 – Evan Longoria, 22, 3B-R, TB – Alex Gordon demonstrated in 2007 that even “can’t miss” prospects sometimes can struggle at the big league level but he’s also my pick for AL rookie of the year. He can mash, hitting for power to all fields—last season, Longoria hit a combined .299/.402/.520 between AA and AAA—and his defense should be above average.

6 – Delmon Young, 22, OF-R, MIN: There is one glaring hole in Delmon Young’s game: pitch recognition. His development, namely his power, will depend heavily upon how that area of his game improves. In order for Young to reach the potential most see in him, earning comparisons to Albert Belle and Vladimir Guerrero, it will take two breakouts: one where he becomes a 20-25 home run hitter and the one where he hits 35-40 home runs. I believe with a change of scenery and something to prove, Young will reach that first plateau in 2008. He will still need to learn, along the way, that there are pitches you can drive and situations that call for expanding the zone, but to simply swing away isn’t how the vast majority of power-hitters approach hitting.

5 – Phillip Hughes/Joba Chamberlain, 22, RHP, NYA: Both of these young arms have a great deal of promise, with Hughes considered the best pitching prospect in baseball in 2006 and Chamberlain considered to be one of the top two pitching prospects in 2007. Hughes was inconsistent in his debut and eventually as sidelined with an ankle sprain. Chamberlain dominated at every level, until famously joining the Yankee bullpen and making a name for himself. He never got a crack at the rotation but based on how well he pitched, the expectations will be high. For that reason, neither is a huge “break-out” candidate, in the sense that both have a great deal of expectations to live up to, but both are primed to succeed at the big league level. It will be interesting to see who will have the better season.

4 – Alex Gordon, 24, 3B-L, KC: Gordon got off to an awful start, hitting a meager .232/.321/.358 prior to the All-Star break but saw improvement in the second half, hitting .264/.305/.472, showing that the power is there. He still has room to improve, but the tools are there for him to reach that level many saw for him as 2007’s number one prospect.

3 – Howie Kendrick: 24, 2B-R, LAA: Kendrick managed to demonstrate his amazing ability to make contact hitting .322/.347/.450 in 338 AB. The power was not there for him as he hit only 5 home runs in that span. This was entirely due to two wrist injuries that kept him from settling in. In each case, Kendrick would hit-hit-hit, get hurt, then slump upon return, then hit-hit-hit again. If manager Mike Scioscia can get Kendrick (a career .359 minor league hitter) from batting sixth in the order as he did for most of 2007 to hitting second, he will be a great table-setter for Vlad. I see a shot at a batting title and 20 home runs for Kendrick in 2008.

2 – Jeremy Bonderman/Felix Hernandez, 25/22, RHP, DET/SEA: I have placed these two pitchers together because both made their major league debuts before the age of 20, both have phenomenal stuff and both have failed to ascend to the level that many see as elite starting pitchers. The physical tools are there, but the experience has yet to come for these two. I would hope that it doesn’t take King Felix as long as it has taken Bonderman (I’ve been expecting break-outs for the past two seasons), but it only further emphasizes how difficult it is to pitch at the level that is expected of these two young players. Look for that ascension in 2008.

1 – Daisuke Matsuzaka, 27, RHP, BOS: The expectations were unthinkably high for Dice-K based on the $103.1 million the Red Sox invested to secure the Japanese right hander and many saw his 15-13 record, his 4.40 ERA and his mid-season slump and were disappointed. He definitely broke down in the second half, posting a 5.19 ERA in 85 innings with a 78/42 K/BB after the break but before that slump, he pitched every bit as well as advertised. In 119.2 pre-All-Star Game innings, Matsuzaka had a 3.84 ERA, and 123/38 K/BB. Baseball America’s top prospect in 2007 will see a vast improvement in 2008 as he learns the league, acclimates to the country and improves upon his control over his arsenal of pitches.

Honorable mention: Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Quentin, John Danks, Adam Jones and Edwin Jackson.

Tomorrow, the NL.

Johan Santana Revisited

Talks have been on hold since we last checked in but it seems the New York Yankees have backed out of the deadline they placed in the Johan Santana trade negotiations. That was quick. There are several trades on the table, or at least believed to be on the table. What happens if the Yankees or the Red Sox–pretty much the two heaviest hitters in the American League–acquire Santana? A look at each scenario with projections.

New York Yankees

1. Johan Santana, LHP – 220 IP – 2.60 ERA – 240 K – 6o BB
2. Chien-Ming Wang, RHP – 210 IP – 3.60 ERA – 120K – 60 BB
3. Andy Pettitte, LHP – 180 IP – 4.40 ERA – 130 K – 60 BB
4. Joba Chamberlain, RHP – 180 IP – 3.50 ERA – 160 K -50 BB
5. Mike Mussina, RHP – 140 IP – 4.60 ERA – 90 K – 50 BB

Provided they don’t trade Ian Kennedy, he would step in if something goes wrong. As a college finesse pitcher, he would represent a good fit as a fourth or fifth starter. In limited time, I see Kennedy as a healthy young arm with marginal stuff–fast ball maxes out at 92 mph / sits in the 88-90 mph range.

Ian Kennedy, RHP – 120 IP – 4.20 ERA – 80 K 30 BB

That’s a good rotation with a little depth. Not to mention, the Yankees could easily acquire a marginal starting pitcher and throw money at it. It’s a nice luxury to have.

Should the Red Sox get Santana, their rotation would look like this:

1. Johan Santana, LHP – 220 IP – 3.00 ERA – 240 K – 6o BB
2. Josh Beckett, RHP – 190 IP – 3.40 ERA – 180 K – 50 BB
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP – 200 IP – 3.80 ERA – 160 K – 50 BB
4. Curt Schilling, RHP – 150 IP – 4.00 ERA – 100 K – 30 BB
5. Clay Buchholz, RHP – 180 IP – 3.50 ERA – 180 K – 50 BB

Having Santana is almost excessive since Tim Wakefield and Jon Lester would be bumped from the rotation in the process. The Red Sox may be paying too high a price if they end up wasting two above average starters for a season. With either Wakefield or Lester in the rotation, and the other waiting for Curt Schilling to miss time, lose money–he has a weight / time lost clause. Bad idea on Schilling’s part, but whatever keeps you motivated. Don’t forget, Beckett also has a history of arm trouble.

Tim Wakefield, RHP – 100 IP – 4.80 ERA – 80 K – 60 BB

John Lester, LHP – 120 IP – 4.20 ERA – 90 K – 40 BB

Should a trade go through, the Yankees wouldn’t lose much offensively in a Philip Hughes, Melky Cabrera and one of a couple of good prospects likes Alan Horne or Jose Tabata, but they would have to pick either Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon or Bobby Abreu to take a stab at center field or offer Mike Cameron a short deal and deal Matsui or Damon–who knows? I’d settle with Damon in center but it wouldn’t be pretty.

If the Red Sox pull the trigger, they’d lose Jacoby Ellsbury in center when their hope was to trade Coco Crisp instead. They’re lucky they won’t lose out at a defensively important position in a ballpark with a lot of run scoring. Ellsbury has won the love of Sox fans after tearing it up down the stretch and hitting well in the playoffs for a World Series team. He is an athletic speedy potential lead-off hitter with some possibility for power but not much.

Jacoby Ellsbury, L – .300/.360/.380 – 8 HR – 40 SB

Coco Crisp, S – .290/.340/.380 – 10 HR – 28 SB

Ellsbury has always had very healthy walk and strikeout rates, which bodes well for his potential to hit and improve his plate discipline. If he remains with the club, he will lead off for them a large portion of the time, combining with Kevin Youkilis or JD Drew to provide a potent 1-2 punch. I still like Coco Crisp. I might be alone, but I think he still can be a good hitter with all of Fenway park at his disposal. He can hit a lot of doubles and triples. Should Ellsbury be traded, he will hit 8th or 9th but hopefully not be as bad as he has with Boston offensively. Same goes for Julio Lugo.

Either team would give themselves a huge boost with the addition of Santana, but it would be costly. What would happen to the Twins if they pull the trigger with either the Yankees or the Red Sox? They’d still be a ways from contention but it would offer them a start. First the Yankees, then the Red Sox:

Minnesota Twins

1. Francisco Liriano, LHP – 120 IP – 3.50 ERA – 100 K – 30 BB
2. Boof Bonser, RHP – 180 IP – 4.00 ERA – 150 K – 60 BB
3. Philip Hughes, RHP – 180 IP – 3.60 ERA – 150 K – 50 BB
4. Scott Baker, RHP – 180 IP – 4.40 ERA – 120 K – 50 BB
5. Kevin Slowey, RHP – 180 IP – 4.00 ERA – 140 K – 40 BB

That’s not a bad rotation provided the young arms can hold up under increased pressure. Most notably, Francisco Liriano (remember him?), the lefty who took the AL by storm in 2006 but got hurt before he could regress. He missed all of 2007 with Tommy John surgery, but should pitch in 2008. It’s only a question of how much and how well.

Offensively, the Twins wouldn’t gain much trading with the Yankees as Melky Cabrera is hardly a star. He would fill in and play center field but he won’t dramatically improve an offense that doesn’t have much sock. Should the Twins trade with the Red Sox, they would add a presence at the top of the order with Ellsbury.

Minnesota Twins

1. CF – Jacoby Ellsbury, L – .290/.350/.390 – 6 HR – 40 SB
2. 2B – Alexi Casilla, S – .280/.360/.380 – 0 HR – 40 SB
3. C – Joe Mauer, L – .310/.400/.450 – 15 HR
4. 1B – Justin Morneau, L – .280/.350/.500 – 33 HR
5. 3B – Michael Cuddyer, R – .270/.340/.440 – 18 HR
6. RF – Delmon Young, R – .290/.330/.480 – 25 HR
7. DH – Jason Kubel, L – .280/.350/.440 – 16 HR
8. LF – Craig Monroe, R – .240/.310/.420 – 12 HR
9. SS – Adam Everett, R / Jed Lowrie, R – .240/.290/.330 – 8 HR — .260/.350/.450 – 10 HR

Here is the solution to the Nick Punto problem: don’t play him. Cuddyer can play third. He won’t be good but he won’t be Punto. I’m not sure Casilla will get the starting job off the bat nor am I sure he’d bat second. At worst, they can shift Mauer or maybe even Delmon Young to hit second. Everett will be a good addition either as a defensive player or a backup option. Lowrie would surely start the year in AAA. That’s not a terrible team but I’m not sure about Monroe or what they do if he fails.

I don’t want to project Delmon Young. There are still holes in his game but he is a future superstar. If pressed, I’m optimistically shooting for 25 bombs for the slugging right fielder. The sooner he learns to lay off the bad pitches, the sooner he becomes a superstar. The kid can hit.

Really, if the Yankees can get away with a package that includes Hughes,Cabrera and another player like Jose Tabata, they should jump on it to stay in the race as a major player. They may have to offer more as they have yet to come to an agreement with the Twins. If the Red Sox go for it, they’d be an easy favorite to win the World Series and force the Yankees to compete with the Tigers and Indians for the Wild Card. The Twins need to wait for the best package possible and might hold onto Santana until Spring training until they find the best fit.

Things would really get interesting in the American League if the Angels were to step in and surprise us with a deal.

San Francisco Giants, Aaron Rowand Ink 5-Year Deal

The San Francisco Giant have agreed to a 5-year $60 million contract with free-agent CF Aaron Rowand. Rowand is coming off of a career year in 2007 in which he hit .309/.374/.515 with 27 home runs for the NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies. The Giants finished in last place in the NL West in 2007 and hope that the addition of Rowand will improve an offense that will be without Barry Bonds for the first time since 1993.

How does Rowand project for the future and will he live up to his deal?

Rowand was a former first-round pick for the White Sox in 1998 and showed good power in the minor leagues, although his strike zone control was sub-par. This may explain while it took him a while to establish himself in the majors until 2004, his age 26 season, he broke out, hitting .310/.361/.544 with 24 home runs. He would then have two pedestrian seasons, one with the Sox, then one with the Phillies, OPSing .736 and .746, respectively. Despite Rowand’s impressive 2007 season, he got to play it in Citizen’s Bank Park, the best hitter’s park this side of Coors and his numbers reflected such as he hit .319/.380/.557 with 17 home runs at home and .299/.368/.475 with 10 home runs on the road.

Still, for a Giants team that was looking to head into 2008 with Randy Winn and Ray Durham as their best offensive players, Rowand, 30, stands to improve the club quite a bit, even if he hits closer to his 2007 road line. I see a .285/.350/.460 in his future with about 18 bombs.

Rowand will also improve the Giants team defense, as he rates well according to most quantitative measures as a center fielder. He rated just behind Torri Hunter in ESPN’s zone rating as well as a rate2 of 106*, according to Baseball Prospectus. He will be a vast improvement over Dave Roberts who likely would have been their starting center fielder. He also won his first Gold Glove, for what its worth.

Given the 5-year $90 million contract the Angels gave Torri Hunter, who is two years older and when compared with the two, 5-year deals handed out last off-season to center fielders Juan Pierre ($45 million) and Gary Matthews Jr. ($50 million), this deal isn’t that bad when viewed within the framework of the open market.

Furthermore, with the departure of Barry Bonds, the Giants needed to make a splash or they would have lost a lot of fans and for a team that finished 5^th in the NL in attendance in 2007, the cost may have been greater had they not signed a player to improve the team’s hopes for 2008.

The Giants will still very, very likely finish last in the NL West, but despite what some are saying, I see this as a decent move for a team that needs a pulse.

 

*Rate2 is a defensive measure that calculates put-outs and assists relative to league average, adjusts it to a 162-game schedule and sets it so 100 is league average.