Primed for a Big Season: National League 2008

Yesterday, I covered the breakout candidates for 2008 in the American league. Today, on to the senior circuit.

10 – Chris Iannetta, 25, C-R, COL: Iannetta failed in his chance at securing the Colorado starting catcher job only hitting .218/.330/.350 in 197 AB, but with Yorvit Torrealba as his only competition, the job should be his for the taking in 2008. Iannetta has never hit more than 14 home runs in a season, but his high batting average, high on-base percentage hitting style should play well in spacious Coors field. With a career minor league .303/.409/.509 line, at 25, Iannetta is more than ready to step in and secure the job.

9 – Andy LaRoche, 24, 3B-R, LAD: With Nomar Garciaparra returning for another year with the Dodgers, LaRoche may have to hit his way into a starting role, but nothing about his track record suggests that will be difficult for the young third baseman. With a career .295/.376/.525 minor league career, including a .309/.399/.589 performance at AAA in 2007, LaRoche will become a household name in Los Angels before the year is up.

8 – Anthony Reyes, 26, RHP, STL: Reyes looked a lot worse on paper in 2007, finishing with an abysmal 2-14 record for a bad St. Louis Cardinals team. Still, despite his 6.04 ERA, Reyes has a career minor league ERA of 3.26 with a 391/76 K/BB in 362.1 innings. I was shocked at his performance last season, but he will be a solid pitcher and a change of scenery may be in order for him.

7 – Matt Cain, 23, RHP, SF: Everything in 2007 was phenomenal for the 22 year-old Cain except the run-support, which led to a 7-16 record for the right-hander despite pitching exceptionally well. With another year in the majors, his control should improve gradually and his stuff will be through the roof, leading to great breakout potential for the young ace. I can’t speak to his win-loss record, however, as the Giants will likely occupy the cellar of the NL West in 2008.

6 – Stephen Drew, 25, SS-L, AZ: Drews first full major league season had to have been one of the big disappointments in 2007. Following a 209 AB major league debut in 2006, where Drew hit .316/.357/.517, he looked to be an above-average major league shortstop. However, with 2007 in the books, he only managed to hit .238/.313/.370 with 12 home runs. Still, he is young enough and has the track record to become the type of player many saw Bobby Crosby becoming as a .280/.360/.450-type player who hits between 15 and 20 home runs annually.

5 – Elijah Dukes/Lastings Milledge/Willy Mo Pena, 24/23/26, OF-R, WAS: All three of these outfielders were sent to Washington, or the new “Island of Misfit Toys,” for different reasons but none had anything to do with talent. Of these three, Milledge has the greatest chance of blossoming into a superstar but I really like Willy Mo’s power potential. He could very well become a Jermaine Dye-type player. Dukes needs to stop threatening to kill his wife and children before he can really think about baseball, but again, the talent is undeniable. A change of scenery, a fresh chance and some regular at-bats will do all three a lot of good.

4 – Jay Bruce, 21, OF-L, CIN: Bruce was unstoppable in 2007, vaulting his way from advanced A ball to AAA hitting a combined .319/.375/.587 with 26 home runs. It is only a matter of time with Bruce before the Reds give him his chance. He may not play the full season in 2008, but 300 or so CAB will be more than enough for Bruce to prove he is ready to play with the big boys.

3 – Chris B. Young, 24, CF-R, AZ: Young had what might be viewed as a confounding rookie debut, demonstrating all of the potential scouts and stat-heads alike saw in him, while also taking his one knock—his questionable strike-zone control to a new level. While Young was only 3 stolen bases shy of becoming the first 30-30 rookie of all time, he also only managed an abysmal .297 on-base percentage in a .237/.295/.467 line with 141/43 K/BB in 2007. With a career minor league isolated patience of .91 and his career major league isolated power sitting at .221, Young is primed for a breakout.

2 – Justin Upton, 20, RF-R, AZ: Following what many felt was a disappointing pro debut in 2006, Justin Upton exploded his way through advanced A ball and AA all the way to the major leagues, capping it off with 140 AB of .221/.283/.364 with 2 home runs in his time with the D-Backs as a 19 year-old (!!!). The former first overall pick of the 2005 draft, who at the time of his drafting drew comparisons to both Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. (one doesn’t earn comps like that for nothing), is here to stay. I see a 20-20 season, or damn close to it, for Upton in 2008 and from there, the sky is the limit for this young prodigy.

1 – Rickie Weeks, 25, 2B-R, MIL: I have been a fan of Rickie Weeks since he hit .500/.619/.987 for Southern University and was picked by the Milwaukee Brewers with the second overall pick in the 2003 amateur draft. Since then, Weeks was rushed to the big leagues and has had problems staying healthy during his time but he has consistently been able to show that he can hit. In 2005, as a 22 year-old, Weeks hit .268/.365/.442 with 25 home runs between AAA and the bigs.

Last season, Weeks struggled, hitting .212/.330/.363 with 5 home runs prior to the trade deadline. It at that time that he was demoted to AAA. In his final 150 at-bats, Weeks hit .273/.442/.553 with 11 homeruns, demonstrating the potential he has. It is getting to be crunch-time for Weeks because his glove has never played well at second base, so he will need to hit to stay there. I believe 2008 is the year he becomes a household name.

Honorable mention: Mike Jacobs, John Meloan, Miguel Montero, Geovany Soto (the real breakout was 2007), Edwin Encarnacion and Hong-Chih Kuo.

Quick Hits: Interview with Depo, Some Plaschke Bashing and more..

An interview with San Diego Padres special advisor, Paul Depodesta on Beyond the Box Score in the SB Nation (always a good read). There’s a certain self-consciousness that you can pick up based on all the bashing he got during his time with the LA Dodgers as general manager. Everyone, despite what Bill Plaschke thinks (note: Plaschke doesn’t think), Depodesta does know what character means.

Speaking of which, Plashke changed his view of Depo when the Mitchell report broke noting, “give new boss Paul DePodesta credit for trading Lo Duca to the Florida Marlins. I wrote that sending Lo Duca out during the middle of a pennant race was one of the worst trades in team history. If DePodesta made the trade based on steroid use, then I stand corrected.”

An oversimplification, of course, but it’s something from Plaschke. I say it was a great trade because Lo Duca was worthless after the month of June, but that’s just splitting hairs at this point.

——————————

Aaron Rowand thinks the San Francisco Giants will be competitive in 2008. He is alone in that regard. I’d say they’d be lucky to be good in five to ten years.

——————————

Newbie Hall of Famer Goose Gossage thinks all the roiders should come clean. I agree with that. Who will step up and be the first? I won’t hold my breath.

——————————

Curt Schilling is a World of Warcraft dork.

——————————

My boy Andy, of Gutty Little Bruins, weighs in on Pete Carroll and the NFL.

Dodgers Sign Hiroki Kuroda to 3-Year $53.3 Million Deal

The Los Angeles Dodgers outbid the Seattle Mariners to attract Japanese free agent Hiroki Kuroda to the states, agreeing to a 3-year $35.3 million contract. Kuroda, 33, will step in to become the Dodger’s fifth starter behind Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley and Jason Schmidt.Kuroda is believed to be the best of a potential crop of Japanese pitchers who want to pitch in the US this year although the projections for 2008 and beyond are mixed.

From a scouting standpoint, Prospect Insider says:

“Kuroda sits 90-92 with a four-seam fastball that shows good leverage, although only a fair amount of sink. He has solid command of the fastball and is not afraid to elevate the pitch to change planes to give the hitter something else to look at, which is ideal since the 33-year-old does not throw a curve ball.

Kuroda’s fork-split is his best pitch and the one in which he will record the majority of his strikeouts. He’s capable of throwing it for strikes, but it’s much more effective as a change-of-pace offering that falls off the table into the dirt.

Kuroda is the class of the three free agents and will get the most interest but he profiles as a No. 3 at best, depending mostly on how well he adapts to the patient approach of the hitters in MLB.”

Dodger assistant general manager Logan White had this to say:

“I put my reputation on the guy. He’s legit. He has a very good delivery, an easy arm motion. He throws from a three-quarters angle. He runs his fastball anywhere from 89-95 miles per hour and stays around 93. He has a slider/cutter at 89 that has a lot of sharp, crisp bite. His out pitch is what he calls a forkball that has real diving, late action at the right-handed hitter.

He’s a strike thrower, and he’s very athletic, a Gold Glove-like fielder. The biggest thing, for me, is that with runners on base, he buckles down. He really is a warrior.”

This seems to be in line with most of what I’ve seen written on Kuroda. He has a good fastball and a good forkball as well as slider and a shuuto, which is like a changeup with screwball action. His command is said to be good, but with his stuff, we will have to see how it translates at the big league level. I do feel more comfortable seeing that Logan White really likes this guy’s stuff.

Still, his statistics in Japan were far from dominating and it will be interesting to see how it all translates in the Major Leagues. Andrew, over at True Blue LA was not convinced:

“Kuroda is a player entering his mid 30s that had trouble missing bats against inferior competition. The only starters that have come from Japan with strikeout rates worse than Kuroda’s are Keiichi Yabu and Masato Yoshii, neither of whom were exactly successful in their time in the states.”

With fairly unimpressive numbers in Japan, it is uncertain whether or not he will be able to sustain any real success at the big league level, much less justify the slightly less than $13 million a season he will be earning. Also, with Kuroda set to step in as the #5 starter, Esteban Loaiza will start the year in the bullpen, making $7.5 million. The Dodgers saw in 2007 that pitching depth really comes in handy but with the enigmatic Hong-Chih Kuo out of options and Scott Elbert and James McDonald almost ready for the bigs, the Dodgers may have been better served going with what they have.

My projection for Kuroda in 2008 goes something like this:

180 IP – 4.40 ERA – 130K – 60BB – 24HR

Even as a league average starter, Kuroda does make the Dodgers better in 2008 and his signing allows the team to improve the rotation without dealing any young players to acquire Erik Bedard or some such pitcher and the Dodgers don’t have to worry too much about money.

Andruw Jones to the LA Dodgers: 2-Years $36.2 Million

The Los Angeles Dodgers have agreed to terms with free agent Andruw Jones to a two-year $36.2 million dollar deal. The Dodgers awarded Jones a $12.2 million signing bonus, $9 million in 2007 and $15 million in 2008. The average annual salary of $18.1 million is slightly greater than the $18 million annually received by Torii Hunter from the Angels (5-years/$90 million). The Dodgers were able to get what will be a comparable, although I believe Jones will be superior player, both offensively and defensively, for a fraction of the time-cost, reducing the risk by quite a bit.

Dodger general manager Ned Colletti has succeeded once again in signing a premium player to a short-term deal. He successfully did so last off-season, bringing in Jason Schmidt on a three-year $47 million deal and Rafael Furcal two off-seasons ago to a three-year $39 million deal. While the Dodgers have yet to see a return on the Schmidt signing, it was widely praised at the time, when compared with the deal Barry Zito signed to pitch for the San Francisco Giants for seven-years and $126 million.

This off-season and in this day and age, with free agents getting ridiculous sums of money and long, guaranteed contracts, enough cannot be said for signing short-term deals. In todays game, there is no such thing as a bad one-year deal, and two years? That isn’t bad either, especially when an organization has the chance to land a future Hall of Famer in Jones for his age 31 and 32 seasons.

Jones had a rough year last season, hitting a meager .222/.311/.413, while also managing to pick up his 10th Gold Glove award. I look for a bounce back from Jones who will probably hit somewhere around .265/.340/.500 with 55+ homers for the power starved team over the life of the deal.

The effect this move has on the Dodgers will likely be that Juan Pierre will shift to left field, where his arm is less of a liability but his bat becomes more of a liability out of center field. This in turn will free up either Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp as possible trade chips for a decent starting pitcher or to add depth to the bullpen.

In either case, it will be a shame to see the Dodgers move one of their young, talented players to hold onto an old, expensive Pierre.