Primed for a Big Season: National League 2008

Yesterday, I covered the breakout candidates for 2008 in the American league. Today, on to the senior circuit.

10 – Chris Iannetta, 25, C-R, COL: Iannetta failed in his chance at securing the Colorado starting catcher job only hitting .218/.330/.350 in 197 AB, but with Yorvit Torrealba as his only competition, the job should be his for the taking in 2008. Iannetta has never hit more than 14 home runs in a season, but his high batting average, high on-base percentage hitting style should play well in spacious Coors field. With a career minor league .303/.409/.509 line, at 25, Iannetta is more than ready to step in and secure the job.

9 – Andy LaRoche, 24, 3B-R, LAD: With Nomar Garciaparra returning for another year with the Dodgers, LaRoche may have to hit his way into a starting role, but nothing about his track record suggests that will be difficult for the young third baseman. With a career .295/.376/.525 minor league career, including a .309/.399/.589 performance at AAA in 2007, LaRoche will become a household name in Los Angels before the year is up.

8 – Anthony Reyes, 26, RHP, STL: Reyes looked a lot worse on paper in 2007, finishing with an abysmal 2-14 record for a bad St. Louis Cardinals team. Still, despite his 6.04 ERA, Reyes has a career minor league ERA of 3.26 with a 391/76 K/BB in 362.1 innings. I was shocked at his performance last season, but he will be a solid pitcher and a change of scenery may be in order for him.

7 – Matt Cain, 23, RHP, SF: Everything in 2007 was phenomenal for the 22 year-old Cain except the run-support, which led to a 7-16 record for the right-hander despite pitching exceptionally well. With another year in the majors, his control should improve gradually and his stuff will be through the roof, leading to great breakout potential for the young ace. I can’t speak to his win-loss record, however, as the Giants will likely occupy the cellar of the NL West in 2008.

6 – Stephen Drew, 25, SS-L, AZ: Drews first full major league season had to have been one of the big disappointments in 2007. Following a 209 AB major league debut in 2006, where Drew hit .316/.357/.517, he looked to be an above-average major league shortstop. However, with 2007 in the books, he only managed to hit .238/.313/.370 with 12 home runs. Still, he is young enough and has the track record to become the type of player many saw Bobby Crosby becoming as a .280/.360/.450-type player who hits between 15 and 20 home runs annually.

5 – Elijah Dukes/Lastings Milledge/Willy Mo Pena, 24/23/26, OF-R, WAS: All three of these outfielders were sent to Washington, or the new “Island of Misfit Toys,” for different reasons but none had anything to do with talent. Of these three, Milledge has the greatest chance of blossoming into a superstar but I really like Willy Mo’s power potential. He could very well become a Jermaine Dye-type player. Dukes needs to stop threatening to kill his wife and children before he can really think about baseball, but again, the talent is undeniable. A change of scenery, a fresh chance and some regular at-bats will do all three a lot of good.

4 – Jay Bruce, 21, OF-L, CIN: Bruce was unstoppable in 2007, vaulting his way from advanced A ball to AAA hitting a combined .319/.375/.587 with 26 home runs. It is only a matter of time with Bruce before the Reds give him his chance. He may not play the full season in 2008, but 300 or so CAB will be more than enough for Bruce to prove he is ready to play with the big boys.

3 – Chris B. Young, 24, CF-R, AZ: Young had what might be viewed as a confounding rookie debut, demonstrating all of the potential scouts and stat-heads alike saw in him, while also taking his one knock—his questionable strike-zone control to a new level. While Young was only 3 stolen bases shy of becoming the first 30-30 rookie of all time, he also only managed an abysmal .297 on-base percentage in a .237/.295/.467 line with 141/43 K/BB in 2007. With a career minor league isolated patience of .91 and his career major league isolated power sitting at .221, Young is primed for a breakout.

2 – Justin Upton, 20, RF-R, AZ: Following what many felt was a disappointing pro debut in 2006, Justin Upton exploded his way through advanced A ball and AA all the way to the major leagues, capping it off with 140 AB of .221/.283/.364 with 2 home runs in his time with the D-Backs as a 19 year-old (!!!). The former first overall pick of the 2005 draft, who at the time of his drafting drew comparisons to both Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. (one doesn’t earn comps like that for nothing), is here to stay. I see a 20-20 season, or damn close to it, for Upton in 2008 and from there, the sky is the limit for this young prodigy.

1 – Rickie Weeks, 25, 2B-R, MIL: I have been a fan of Rickie Weeks since he hit .500/.619/.987 for Southern University and was picked by the Milwaukee Brewers with the second overall pick in the 2003 amateur draft. Since then, Weeks was rushed to the big leagues and has had problems staying healthy during his time but he has consistently been able to show that he can hit. In 2005, as a 22 year-old, Weeks hit .268/.365/.442 with 25 home runs between AAA and the bigs.

Last season, Weeks struggled, hitting .212/.330/.363 with 5 home runs prior to the trade deadline. It at that time that he was demoted to AAA. In his final 150 at-bats, Weeks hit .273/.442/.553 with 11 homeruns, demonstrating the potential he has. It is getting to be crunch-time for Weeks because his glove has never played well at second base, so he will need to hit to stay there. I believe 2008 is the year he becomes a household name.

Honorable mention: Mike Jacobs, John Meloan, Miguel Montero, Geovany Soto (the real breakout was 2007), Edwin Encarnacion and Hong-Chih Kuo.

Mike Cameron Signs With Milwaukee

The Milwaukee Brewers have reportedly agreed to a one-year contract with CF Mike Cameron. Cameron will receive a $1.25 million signing bonus and $5 million in salary in 2008 with a $10 million team option for 2009. Due to Cameron’s 25-game suspension for amphetamine use, his prorated salary will be $4.22 million.

Cameron, 35, is coming off a .242/.328/.431 line in 2007 with 21 home runs. This isn’t far out of line with his career .251/.344/.455 line, which bodes well for the Brewers who up until this point, had largely focused on improving their bullpen but had failed to match a player of RF Kosuke Fukudome’s stature in their competition with the Cubs. With this move, the Brew Crew can ably replace OF Geoff Jenkin’s production but more importantly, improve a team defense that was one of the worst in the National League in 2007. With this move, they will shift OF/IF Bill Hall from center field–where he was lost–to third. They will then move rookie of the year, Ryan Braun from third–where he was lost–to left field.

Signing Cameron, the Brewers will have greatly improved their outfield defense and even if they elect to keep Braun at third and move Hall to left, their pitching staff can breath a little easier. I have heard Brewers general manager Doug Melvin say that he’d like Braun to remain at third because he believes that the tools are there to become an adequate third base man, but based on his performance as a big leaguer (.895 fielding percentage), that may be a stretch at this point. Moving Braun to left would certainly help the Brewers in 2008, but what will they do with 1B Matt LaPorta when he inevitably knocks down the door?

Financially, this move really works well for the small-market Brewers, only having to commit to one year and about a third of what the LA Angels will be paying CF Torri Hunter in 2008. With their very talented core of young players, they will likely see an increase in attendance as their fanbase begins to connect with the Brewers as a competitive team in the NL Central and should Cameron provide the .240/.330/.440 line we can generally expect of him with plus defense, picking up that 2009 option may make sense for them, even at $10 million. If not, he will certainly help their chances of beating the Cubs in 2008.

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Links and Such

John Sickels ranks the Tampa Bay Ray’s farm system. He gives their top three prospects A ratings. I would have guessed on 3B Evan Longoria and LHP David Price but I was a little surprised to see LHP Jacob McGee as an A. Below that, they have four B+ players. Wow.

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This is amazing. The formula to determine the grittiest players in the game. AWE-some. –Flotsam Media
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Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan picks Atlanta Braves RF Jeff Francoeur as his #1 breakout candidate in 2008 (subscription required). I think that’s a great pick and after some thought, I really like the Braves as a viable threat against the New York Mets provided they don’t sneak in and acquire LHP Johan Santana. They still need a centerfielder and Mark Kotsay isn’t the answer. They should have give Cameron the deal he got with Milwaukee.

I was planning on writing a break-out list, but my hand is being forced to do it sooner rather than later knowing that Sheehan will be finishing his list next week. I will put that list together over the weekend. Predicting breakouts is the key to winning in fantasy baseball. More on that later.

Milwaukee Bolsters Bullpen: Eric Gagne 1-Year $10 Million

Free agent Eric Gagne has agree to a $10 million, one-year contract to close for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2008. Gagne will step in to replace Francisco Cordero, the Brewer’s 2007 closer who is headed to the Cincinnati Reds, having agreed to a four-year $46 million contract. The Brewers offered Cordero a four-year $42 million deal but it wasn’t enough to retain their closer.

In Gagne, they are getting an “experienced” closer, who was once one of the most dominant closers in baseball history from 2002-2004 for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He averaged a 1.79 ERA, with a 14.8 K/9 and a 6.3 K/BB ratio over the three year span. In 2005, Gagne had elbow surgery and only managed to pitch 13.1 innings and missed most of 2006, managing only 2 IP before requiring surgery on a herniated disc. In 2007, Gagne pitched 52 innings between his time with the Texas Rangers and the Boston Red Sox with a 3.81 ERA, striking out 51 and walking 21 batters, saving 16 out of 20 games.

I would imagine Gagne’s 2008 numbers will be much closer to his 2007 numbers than his 2002-2004 numbers, but even then, he will be a solid closer for the Brewers and again, there is no such thing as a bad one-year deal.

This move is general manager Doug Melvin’s fifth move in his attempt at bolstering the Milwaukee bullpen. It began with the signing of lefty Randy Choate, then trading catcher Johnny Estrada for Mets pitcher Guillermo Mota, then signing reliever David Riske to a three-year $13 million deal and trading a couple relief prospects for Solomon Torres.

Personally, giving up major resources to improve a bullpen is never a good idea, especially when it involves taking major—err…commitment to sign a 31 year-old journeyman like Riske whose peripheral stats don’t match up with his performance. Riske managed a 2.45 ERA, pitching 69.2 with only a 6.9 K/9 and almost a 2 K/BB ratio in 2007, and 6.1 K/9 and 2.1 K/BB ratio from 2005-2007.

Mota, 34, isn’t much better and Torres, 36, and Choate, 32, are even worse. The Brewers are set as far as their starting lineup and rotation go, but their bullpen could just as easily be as bad as it was in 2007 with its 4.15 ERA, good for 12^th out of 16 NL teams.

The recent model for relief success involves signing or compiling cheap, young, live-arms like the Arizona Diamondbacks did this past season or the model the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Oakland Athletics have used over the past few years and simply hope for the best. Or, convert a highly-regarded starter to pitch out of the pen for the season.

With the rotation problems the Brewers faced in 2007 with the collapses of Chris Capuano and David Bush, along with the injury to ace Ben Sheets, the Brewcrew are going to need pitching coach Mike Maddux to do some serious work to stay in the hunt for the NL Central title and edge the Chicago Cubs.

A major key to the Brewers success hinges on 2003 second overall pick Rickie Weeks, a major break-out candidate or bust in 2008–he will be a big factor for the Brewer’s in 2008.

Gagne, et. al. will be there too.