Some Words on Baseball Prospects

I love following minor leaguers, especially the studs, because of all the promise as well as all the uncertainty and subjectivity involved in the evaluation process. I’d like to think of myself as a good talent evaluator, but I’ve been wrong on players more than a few times (SS-R Troy Tulowitzki, 3B-R Andy Marte, for different reasons in 2007). It’s part of the prospecting game.

With prospects, the numbers play a part in the evalutation process, but they don’t tell the whole story. Analysts know a lot about the game and trends within the game, but trends are not truths and when it comes to prospects, it is largely an individual-to-individual evaluation. Why did scouts like 1B-L James Loney so much despite the fact that he never performed, at any level, between advanced A ball and AAA (2002-2006)? Because he has a great swing, because he has a projectable frame and because they saw something in James Loney that said ballplayer. Hell, I still don’t know how many home runs he’ll hit in 2008 or in his peak because there’s nothing in the numbers to indicate such. A good guess might be between 10-30. I’ll take 15 in 2008 and 25 peak, but that’s just me.

An even better example is someone like SS-R Hanley Ramirez, who in two short seasons in the majors, went from confounding prospect to one of the most valuable commdities in baseball. No one saw that coming, including Boston Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein who is one of the greatest talent evaluators in the game. I’ll bet there’s a scout somewhere saying “Told ya’ so.”

The numbers can also be misleading in the opposite direction. Until a player has made it through each level of the minors and has some body of work in the major leagues, players who look promising early on (RHP Yusmeiro Petit, Jeremy Sowers), flame out because the stuff doesn’t match the performance.

On that note, there’s a great piece regarding Colorado Rockies LHP Franklin Morales by Baseball Prospectus scout Kevin Goldstein where he talks about player evaluation that I really liked. He touches on a variety of points that are often contested, such as talent vs. performance and the issue of makeup. Analysts hate words like “makeup” and “chemistry” because they cannot be quantified, but in a game that isn’t defined by entirely its trends, but also by its individuals, these things certainly can be qualified.

Here, Goldstein talks about the disparity between talent and performance in response to a letter from a fan who questions Morales’ receiving a 5-Star grade:

“I grade Morales as not only a five-star prospect, but as an upper-echelon one at that…You don’t need more than one hand to count the number of left-handers at ANY LEVEL who can match Morales on a pure stuff level, and that really does count for something…You say I have no reliable data points, I argue that scouting reports are reliable data points, and in my experience, far more reliable for evaluating prospects than raw minor league statistics. Not that pure performance isn’t important, but it’s not as important to me as scouting reports.”

And here, Goldstein emphasizes the importance of makeup:

“You emphasize “rave professionalism reviews” as if it is a bad thing–-I assume this is because it is not a specific data point. I can tell you, one thing I’ve learned from my many years of doing this, which have given me the wonderful opportunity to deal with people inside the game on a daily basis, is that MAKEUP COUNTS. It really does. Supreme talent can overcome bad makeup, but average, even good talent rarely can. You can look at old prospect lists and focus on the misses, and when you do that, for every player who just wasn’t as good as we thought, there was a player who didn’t become what he could of, or even should of, because he didn’t put in the work necessary to become a big leaguer. Baseball is a remarkably difficult game, and those who approach the game with the proper effort and yes, professionalism have a significant leg up on those who don’t, and can often pass those who are far more talented. You want to know why I was so wrong about Dustin Pedroia? It’s not because I under-evaluated his tools, I can read my report on those and they’re still very accurate. It’s because I underrated just how valuable his effort is to his overall productivity.”

This is good stuff. Why is it that a player like OF-R Elijah Dukes has failed to make it? Obviously, the talent is there, but something mentally isn’t or hasn’t been yet. Still, just like plate discipline can be learned (SS-B Jose Reyes), power can sometimes be learned (James Loney???), so too can a strong work ethic and so-called makeup. Like anything in baseball, its not easy to learn and its even harder to project.

Player of the Week: Jay Bruce

Cincinnati Reds CF-L Jay Bruce is 2008’s prospect of the year. Baseball America hasn’t published its top 100 prospects yet, but when it does, Jay Bruce will be #1. When I publish my top 25 list (coming soon!), he will be #1.  He is already the number one prospect according to multiple sources, including Minor League Baseball (check the video provided to see live footage).

Bruce was selected 12th overall in the 2005 out of Westbrook high school in an amateur draft the was rich in high school outfield prospects, including OF-R Justin Upton (1st overall–Arizona), Cameron Maybin (10th overall–Detroit), Andrew McCutchen (11th overall–Pittsburgh), CF-L Jacoby Ellsbury (23rd overall–Boston), and Colby Rasmus (28th overall-St. Louis). Bruce outperformed all of his peers, hitting a combined .319/.375/.587 with 26 home runs in 521 at-bats between advanced A ball and AAA, never slugging less than .567 (AAA), as a 20 year-old, on his way to earning the Midwest League MVP award as well as Baseball America’s Player of the Year Award in 2007.

Most scouts would still rate Upton as the top talent out of the 2005 draft, but none will argue that Bruce could be every bit the superstar and contend for the top spot out of that talented crop of players. As much as Bruce is known for his talent, he is also regarded as having a great work ethic with excellent character and makeup, as Cincinnati General Manager Wayne Krivski notes, “He’s got a nice package of skills and ability to go along with that makeup…He’s 20 years old and having success in Triple-A…but for as much talent as he has, his family deserves all the credit for the quality person he is. Something like that cannot be quantified.”

In a recent ranking of Cincinatti’s top prospects, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus says:

“Bruce is loaded with both tools and skills. He’s a fantastic hitter who is seemingly incapable of light contact, projecting as a .300+ hitter who approaches 100 extra-base hits annually. He has average to slightly-above speed and has proven to be surprisingly capable in center field, while also showcasing a strong arm. He supplements his natural abilities with strong makeup and an outstanding work ethic.”

I’m not certain I would agree with the 100 extra basehits right off the bat–that’s like saying he’ll become Albert Pujols–but this is high praise for such a young player, and Cincinatti’s faith in Bruce led to their trading of CF-L Josh Hamilton, making room for Bruce in centerfield for 2008. Bruce will likely see a lot of time in center for the Reds in 2008, and while some scouts question his ability to stick in center beyond the next couple seasons, his hitting will be good enough to play in either outfield corner, where he will likely end up as a rightfielder once OF-L Ken Griffey Jr departs.

Beyond that, its anyones guess what kind of player Bruce will become. The sky is the limit. I see a player who will be a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate who hits 35-40 home runs in his peak.  His plate discipline has never been fantastic, but as a superior hitter at a young age, those skills will develop at the big league level as he learns the league. For this season, I see about 400 AB’s with a .280/.330/.480 line with close to 20 home runs.  I’m assuming his pitch selection will improve a little, even at the big league level. 

The Reds have a lot to be excited for in 2008 and with flawed teams in Milwaukee and Chicago competing for the NL Central title in 2008, the Reds are a solid sleeper pick for 2008, provided they get the type of production expected from players like Bruce.

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Baseball Prospectus’s Will Carroll weighs in on young pitcher usage on the Lohud Yankees Blog. The New York Yankees (RHP Joba Chamberlain, Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedyare in trouble) as well as the Tampa Bay Rays (LHP Scott Kazmirand RHP James Shields, Matt Garza) because young pitchers cannot pitch a lot of innings without a lot of risk involved according to the Year After Effect. Carroll suggests using Chamberlain in the rotation for 100 innings, then moving him to the bullpen. Makes sense, isn”t going to happen.

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The longest tenured General Manager in baseball, Kevin Towers, received a contract extension, to remain in San Diego through 2010. Most importantly, Towers has completed deals to keep sluggers 1B-L Adrian Gonzalezand RHP Jake Peavy and Chris Young in San Diego. The Peavy extensionrepresents a huge step in remaining in contention in the NL West where the Pads have largely been underdogs in recent years but have still managed to contend year after year.

Afternoon Links: Clemens/Pettitte Drama, NL West Defense and some Football

I always believed Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte were buddies. They were both Texans, they worked out together and they both went to Houston to pitch in 2004. I guess, according to an anonymous friend, they really weren’t friends.

I find it interesting how the media weaves stories, sometimes falsely, because its fun to think about for fans (and it sells papers). Maybe, they’re more friends than we think and this is yet another example of media story telling, maybe the steroid thing ruins friendships (see McNamee v. Clemens), but either way, we as fans, sure buy into all this fluff.

They’re both still great pitchers and Clemens may be the greatest ever.

Funny, though, that there’s all this controversy.  Clemens admitted to everything, steroids, everything.  (All Talk Sports)

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69 Days until opening day, reports Obscure Sports Quarterly (a fellow Bruin). I can’t wait.

In other news, the Baltimore Orioles suck.

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Rox Girl of Purple Row breaks down the defense in the NL West in 2008. She’s a homer, predicting the Rockies to vastly outperform the AZ Diamondbacks defensively (I’m not so sure), but it’s a good read.

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Other Sports (They Exist):

UCLA Football is Finally Legit with the hiring of Norm Chow as offensive coordinator, reports Larry Brown. I love it. (Larry Brown Sports).

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Indianapolis Colts headcoach Tony Dungy Can’t Quit Colts. For a well-known homophobe, was this headline a coincidence? asks The Big Lead.

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Bret Favre, No Super For You! Best Use of Photoshop. HA! (Epic Carnival)

Base Hits: Teixeira, Cabrera sign; Robertson gets Extension

Wrapping up with arbitration stories, the Atlanta Braves are gearing up for their last hurrah, signing 1B-S Mark Teixeira to a one-year $12.5 million contract. It will be unlikely that the Braves will be able to retain the Boras client for less than market value, but if the Braves put together a good run in the NL East, Teixeira may enjoy playing for manager Bobby Cox. I still look for Teixeira to depart after the 2007 season.

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The Detroit Tigers have agreed to terms with 3B-R Miguel Cabrera on a one-year $11.3 million, a significant raise from his 2006 salary of $7.4 million. This was a first step toward locking up the 25 year-old phenom long-term. It seems obvious that Cabrera wouldn’t sign a long-term deal without experiencing playing in the American League and playing for manager Jim Leyland, but the Tigers have the pieces in place to become a strong contender in 2007 and that’s what it’s going to take to entice Cabrera to stay.

The Tigers also signed LHP Nate Robertson to a 3-year $21.25 million extension. The “innings eater” will give the Tigers some stability at the back end of the rotation. I’m not crazy about Robertson or what he does on the mound, but the Tigers will still have some flexibility after 2007 once LHP Kenny Rogers comes off the books.

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The Tampa Bay Rays have traded for former Braves IF-S Willy Aybar. Aybar, 24, when he signed with the LA Dodgers, received the highest signing bonus of all time for a Dominican player, but after a trade to the Braves, battled problems with substance abuse and hasn’t played since 2006. Still, Aybar is exactly the type of player the Rays could use to build up competition in their middle infield and still figures to be a solid offensive contributor if he puts his past behind him.

Arbitration Underway: Early Winners and Losers

Contracts are being signed left and right as organizations and players are coming to terms on short-term contracts, smartly avoiding the arbitration process. As much as most players try to keep the “business” of baseball in mind, going through the process often leaves a bad taste in players’ mouths, so organizations strive to appease their players by avoiding the process altogether. In some cases, when the figures being thrown around do not agree, arbitration is inevitable. Here is a list of some winners and losers.

Winners:

Oakland Athletics: We all know the A’s are rebuilding by now. For that reason, they need to keep risk to a minimum. Where before, Billy Beane and company were considering locking up closer RHP Huston Street to a long-term deal, having suffered an elbow injury in 2007, they wisely locked him up to a one-year deal. Likewise, the A’s agreed to terms on a one-year deal with RHP Joe Blanton. The A’s have been traditionally very good at securing young talent–RHP Rich Harden, RHP Dan Haren, OF-S Nick Swisher–that is not their priority for now. If the A’s elect to trade either player, locking them up to longer deals will be up to their new teams.

Carlos Pena: When journeymen strike it rich, it’s usually not a great idea (see: Gary Matthews Jr.), but 1B-L Carlos Pena showed in 2007 that he can hit, mashing to a .282/.411/.627 clip with 46 home runs in 490 AB. That performance was a shocker to everyone in baseball and earned Pena the Comeback Player of the Year award. The 30-year old slugger earned every penny of his $24.125 million deal.

Colorado Rockies: After LF-R Matt Holliday, Scott Boras rejected a 5-year $60 million contract to keep the MVP runner-up in Coors, Dan O’Dowd has given Holliday a 2-year $23 million deal, keeping the slugger in uniform through his walk-year in 2009. In this regard, the Rockies have done the next best thing aside from giving Holliday an extension, they’re keeping him happy. Now, when it comes time to attempt to negotiate an extension following the 2008 season, Boras and Holliday will remember this.

Losers:

Kevin Youkilis: The Red Sox and 1B-R Kevin Youkilis were unable to come to terms on a contract with Youkilis asking for $3.7 million and the Red Sox offering $2.5 million. As a corner infielder with only a little bit of pop, Youkilis should be content starting for a championship team. Even if he is liked by the fans, has been a key contributor, the Sox have already shown that corner infielders aren’t hard to come by and aren’t difficult to replace when they let fan favorite Kevin Millar walk. Clearly, it’s a different situation as Youkilis is only 29 and Millar was 33, and I’m not saying Youk shouldn’t ask for the money, he just has a rude awakening ahead when he learns the Red Sox don’t value him as much as he thinks they might.

New York Mets: The Mets have a long process ahead of them over what doesn’t amount to a lot of money. With LHP Oliver Perez, the differences of $1.775 million (asked $6.5 million, offered $4.725 million), isn’t much for a team who should explore retaining their reclamation success story. They are also at odds with RHP Jorge Sosa ($1.05 million), OF-L Ryan Church ($700,000), RHP Pedro Feliciano ($320,000) and OF-L Endy Chavez ($350,000). While most of these guys aren’t superior talents, taking a player to arbitration represents a lack of control on the part of the organization, who can just as easily offer a mult-year deal and retain some cost-control or certainty beyond 2008.

Philadelphia Phillies: You know the best not to lock your superstar slugger to an extension? Take ‘em to court. The Phillies and 1B-L Ryan Howard are going to an arbiter over a reported difference of $3 million (Phillies $7 million, Howard $10 million). If they had instead offered him a two-year deal, or even a deal that covered Howard through his arb years, they would likely save money in the long-run and give themselves a better chance at retaining Howard.  Howard is asking for a lot though, as $10 million would be the highest first year award ever (Miguel Cabrera was most in 2007 at $7.4 million).  Howard isn’t going to be happy when he ends up getting $7 million.

Glaus For Rolen

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to terms to trade 3B-R Troy Glaus for Scott Rolen. Because both players are damaged, former All-Star third basemen with no-trade clauses, it makes for a difficult trade to break down, namely to pick a winner. Perhaps, as what is being called a “challenge trade,” the only winners are Rolen and Glaus, who both needed a change of scenery, but that’s no fun. I’ve put a lot of thought into this one and decided with a trade as close as this one, it makes sense to break it down by offensive and defensive potential, the new ballparks (each player will now play in), health concerns and financial considerations.

The foremost concern for both players is their health. Glaus has been affected by his foot injury, plantar fasciitis and a long history of back problems that were exacerbated by playing on turf in Toronto. He will benefit from a move to grass, which was the reason he requested a trade to begin with. Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll had this to say:

“According to sources, Glaus had a nerve problem that was painful but not serious. He had surgery to decompress the nerve causing the pain due to plantar fasciitis.  Remember, the Cards have good experience with managing plantar fasciitis—they’ve been able to keep Albert Pujols on the field despite the condition, and Pujols has continued to produce due to some advanced techniques and plain old hard work.”

Rolen has been plagued by an arthritic shoulder that has sapped him of his power and most of his hitting ability. Again, Carroll weighs in on Rolen:

“Rolen’s arthritic condition is going to come back, but his most recent procedure shouldn’t be dissimilar to the last one in terms of results: he’ll be okay for a while, but the time will come when the shoulder will start to tighten up. At that point, Rolen’s going to have to take a hard look at a needle full of cortisone and the rest of his life after baseball. The question is if the Jays medical staff, among the best in the business, can control the symptoms and bring back some of Rolen’s power that’s been lost to the injury.”

Both players have had to deal with injuries but as far as offensive performance goes, Rolen seems to have been more affected offensively by his injury hitting only .265/.331/.398 with 8 home runs in 398 AB in 2007 after a promising 2006. Glaus was limited to 385 AB in 2007, but still managed to hit .262/.366/.473 with 20 home runs. Still, Rogers Centre in Toronto played as more of a hitters park than the new Busch Stadium. A closer look reveals this as Glaus hit .282/.402/.481 at home and .249/.341/.467 on the road. Meanwhile, Rolen hit .243/.319/.366 and a more respectable .289/.344/.432 on the road. Even with a change of scenery, Rolen may not be able to hit for as much power as he once did, but a solid boost to his batting average and some doubles should be more than possible. Glaus will need to keep his power stroke to retain his value but even in Busch, I would still pick Glaus to outperform Rolen.

Defensively, there is no comparison. Rolen has consistently rated as one of the best at third. Even with his injury, he still played +16 FRAA (fielding runs over the average third baseman), keeping his WARP1 at 4.1 despite his meager hitting. Glaus managed to play +3 FRAA and a 4.0 WARP1, which is good for Glaus who historically is slow and unathletic at the hot corner. It will be Rolen’s consistent defensive contribution that will keep his value reasonably high no matter what he hits.

All in all, because of the defense, it would seem likely that the Blue Jays came out on top in this trade because even in the worst season in Rolen’s career, he still outperformed Glaus overall (barely), but the financial considerations are what make the deal tough to assess.

With Rolen still owed $36 million over the remaining 3 years (left over from a eight-year $90 million contract extension–see, 8-year deals never work out), he is signed though his age 35 season, which is a long time for a player who is already being affected by injury. Glaus, on the other hand, picked up his player option for 2009, and will be paid $23.5 million over two years, signed through his age 33 season. This is probably the single most important factor in what is looking like a close trade and for this very reason, it looks like the Cardinals probably got the better end of the deal.

If Rolen, rejuvenated by the trade, is able to hit his way to a .290/.360/.440 line–and this is a big if–with his usual glovework, he may outperform Glaus. It will take Glaus hitting something like .250/.360/.500 to outperform Rolen. Either way, the Cardinals will be off the hook one season sooner, but health will be the ultimate determinant in this deal.

Primed for a Big Season: National League 2008

Yesterday, I covered the breakout candidates for 2008 in the American league. Today, on to the senior circuit.

10 – Chris Iannetta, 25, C-R, COL: Iannetta failed in his chance at securing the Colorado starting catcher job only hitting .218/.330/.350 in 197 AB, but with Yorvit Torrealba as his only competition, the job should be his for the taking in 2008. Iannetta has never hit more than 14 home runs in a season, but his high batting average, high on-base percentage hitting style should play well in spacious Coors field. With a career minor league .303/.409/.509 line, at 25, Iannetta is more than ready to step in and secure the job.

9 – Andy LaRoche, 24, 3B-R, LAD: With Nomar Garciaparra returning for another year with the Dodgers, LaRoche may have to hit his way into a starting role, but nothing about his track record suggests that will be difficult for the young third baseman. With a career .295/.376/.525 minor league career, including a .309/.399/.589 performance at AAA in 2007, LaRoche will become a household name in Los Angels before the year is up.

8 – Anthony Reyes, 26, RHP, STL: Reyes looked a lot worse on paper in 2007, finishing with an abysmal 2-14 record for a bad St. Louis Cardinals team. Still, despite his 6.04 ERA, Reyes has a career minor league ERA of 3.26 with a 391/76 K/BB in 362.1 innings. I was shocked at his performance last season, but he will be a solid pitcher and a change of scenery may be in order for him.

7 – Matt Cain, 23, RHP, SF: Everything in 2007 was phenomenal for the 22 year-old Cain except the run-support, which led to a 7-16 record for the right-hander despite pitching exceptionally well. With another year in the majors, his control should improve gradually and his stuff will be through the roof, leading to great breakout potential for the young ace. I can’t speak to his win-loss record, however, as the Giants will likely occupy the cellar of the NL West in 2008.

6 – Stephen Drew, 25, SS-L, AZ: Drews first full major league season had to have been one of the big disappointments in 2007. Following a 209 AB major league debut in 2006, where Drew hit .316/.357/.517, he looked to be an above-average major league shortstop. However, with 2007 in the books, he only managed to hit .238/.313/.370 with 12 home runs. Still, he is young enough and has the track record to become the type of player many saw Bobby Crosby becoming as a .280/.360/.450-type player who hits between 15 and 20 home runs annually.

5 – Elijah Dukes/Lastings Milledge/Willy Mo Pena, 24/23/26, OF-R, WAS: All three of these outfielders were sent to Washington, or the new “Island of Misfit Toys,” for different reasons but none had anything to do with talent. Of these three, Milledge has the greatest chance of blossoming into a superstar but I really like Willy Mo’s power potential. He could very well become a Jermaine Dye-type player. Dukes needs to stop threatening to kill his wife and children before he can really think about baseball, but again, the talent is undeniable. A change of scenery, a fresh chance and some regular at-bats will do all three a lot of good.

4 – Jay Bruce, 21, OF-L, CIN: Bruce was unstoppable in 2007, vaulting his way from advanced A ball to AAA hitting a combined .319/.375/.587 with 26 home runs. It is only a matter of time with Bruce before the Reds give him his chance. He may not play the full season in 2008, but 300 or so CAB will be more than enough for Bruce to prove he is ready to play with the big boys.

3 – Chris B. Young, 24, CF-R, AZ: Young had what might be viewed as a confounding rookie debut, demonstrating all of the potential scouts and stat-heads alike saw in him, while also taking his one knock—his questionable strike-zone control to a new level. While Young was only 3 stolen bases shy of becoming the first 30-30 rookie of all time, he also only managed an abysmal .297 on-base percentage in a .237/.295/.467 line with 141/43 K/BB in 2007. With a career minor league isolated patience of .91 and his career major league isolated power sitting at .221, Young is primed for a breakout.

2 – Justin Upton, 20, RF-R, AZ: Following what many felt was a disappointing pro debut in 2006, Justin Upton exploded his way through advanced A ball and AA all the way to the major leagues, capping it off with 140 AB of .221/.283/.364 with 2 home runs in his time with the D-Backs as a 19 year-old (!!!). The former first overall pick of the 2005 draft, who at the time of his drafting drew comparisons to both Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. (one doesn’t earn comps like that for nothing), is here to stay. I see a 20-20 season, or damn close to it, for Upton in 2008 and from there, the sky is the limit for this young prodigy.

1 – Rickie Weeks, 25, 2B-R, MIL: I have been a fan of Rickie Weeks since he hit .500/.619/.987 for Southern University and was picked by the Milwaukee Brewers with the second overall pick in the 2003 amateur draft. Since then, Weeks was rushed to the big leagues and has had problems staying healthy during his time but he has consistently been able to show that he can hit. In 2005, as a 22 year-old, Weeks hit .268/.365/.442 with 25 home runs between AAA and the bigs.

Last season, Weeks struggled, hitting .212/.330/.363 with 5 home runs prior to the trade deadline. It at that time that he was demoted to AAA. In his final 150 at-bats, Weeks hit .273/.442/.553 with 11 homeruns, demonstrating the potential he has. It is getting to be crunch-time for Weeks because his glove has never played well at second base, so he will need to hit to stay there. I believe 2008 is the year he becomes a household name.

Honorable mention: Mike Jacobs, John Meloan, Miguel Montero, Geovany Soto (the real breakout was 2007), Edwin Encarnacion and Hong-Chih Kuo.

Quick Hits: Kotsay to the Braves, Indians are now…uh…Progressive?

 The Oakland  Athletics have agreed to trade CF-L Mark Kotsayto the Atlanta Braves in exchange for RHP Joey Devine and Jamie Richmond, pending a physical examination for Kotsay in Atlanta.

Kotsay, 32, will serve as a short-term solution for the win-now Braves as the A’s have agreed to pay over $5 million of the $7.33 million remaining in the final year of a three-year contract extension signed with the A’s in 2006.

I like this move for the A’s who have already tradedRHP Dan Haren and OF/1B-S Nick Swisher in their rebuilding efforts.  They may still move 2B-R Mark Ellis, RHP’s Joe Blanton, Huston Street, Rich Harden and maybe even franchise-face 3B-L Eric Chavez before Spring Training, or early in the 2008 season.

Oakland General Manager Billy Beane has done a great job of rebuilding a farm system that was thin.  Now, their farm system is among the best in the game.  Still, as Blez of Athletics Nation points out, the problem the A’s now face is as much a result on a lack of emphasis on scouting and player development, as portrayed (perhaps exaggerated) in Michael Lewis’ Moneyball, as anything.

As for the Braves, Kotsay will offer a decent lead-off candidate and center field defense if his back holds up, stepping in for long-time Brave centerfielder Andruw Jones.  Kotsay has had trouble staying healthy and in the past three seasons has hit .267/.321/.388.

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I’m of the belief that the Cleveland Indians are long overdue for a mascot change.  Chief Wahoo is a gross sterotype of Native-Americans, but now to change the name of their field from Jacobs Field to Progressive Field is just strange to me.  David Chalk of Bugs and Cranks points out this irony. 

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John Sickels rates the Cleveland Indians’ and Colorado Rockies’ farm systems.

Primed for Big Seasons: American League 2008

As I mentioned in my last post, Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan named Jeff Francoeur his number one breakout candidate for 2008. I thought that was a great pick and that was a topic I’d been looking forward to addressing prior to the 2008 season. Since Sheehan said he’d work on that article for this week, I felt I had to get my ideas down before he did.

There is nothing more important and significant to a player’s career than a major league breakout, meaning a player takes a dramatic step forward in their performance and becomes the star they were projected to be. This can happen as a result of a player’s health improving, experience and ability finally coming together, pending free-agency and sometimes even the acquisition of a new pitch (for a pitcher) or a change of scenery. Here is a look at some guys who I feel have laid the groundwork to have huge seasons in the American League in 2008.

10 – Dioner Navarro, 24, C-S, TB: Since starting full-time with the Dodgers as a 22 year-old, Navarro has been trying to make it as a major league catcher. While his time in Tampa has been anything but promising (.227/.286/.356 in 2007), following the All-Star break, he hit .285/.340/.475 with 8 of his 9 home runs coming in that span. I’m not saying he’s the next big thing but I’ve always felt he could be a solid regular for a team and next season, he seems primed to make that jump.

9 – Masahide Kobayashi, 33, RHP, CLE: Signing a two-year deal with the Cleveland Indians, Kobayashi is the candidate most likely to step in as the team’s closer, replacing Joe “Get-er-Done” Borowski. Mike Plugh of Baseball Prospectus writes that Kobayashi features a high-90’s fast ball and a slider and given seven seasons as the closer for the Chiba Lotte Marines, he may take the American League by storm in 2008 for a strong Cleveland ball club.

8 – Boof Bonser, 26, RHP, MIN: The 6’4” 260 pound right-hander has always had good stuff and command of his stuff but the long ball has always been a source of trouble. While his 2007 season looked bad on paper, 5.10 ERA, his K/9 (7.08) and track record bode well for the big righty. Remember, in 2006, between AAA and his time in the bigs, Bonser pitched 186.2 innings with 167 K, 59 BB, 22 HR and a 3.90 ERA. Also, with Delmon Young in left, where he should be above average and the acquisition of Coco Crisp or Jacoby Ellsbury as likely possibilities, Minnesota’s outfield defense should be helpful to the cause.

7 – Evan Longoria, 22, 3B-R, TB – Alex Gordon demonstrated in 2007 that even “can’t miss” prospects sometimes can struggle at the big league level but he’s also my pick for AL rookie of the year. He can mash, hitting for power to all fields—last season, Longoria hit a combined .299/.402/.520 between AA and AAA—and his defense should be above average.

6 – Delmon Young, 22, OF-R, MIN: There is one glaring hole in Delmon Young’s game: pitch recognition. His development, namely his power, will depend heavily upon how that area of his game improves. In order for Young to reach the potential most see in him, earning comparisons to Albert Belle and Vladimir Guerrero, it will take two breakouts: one where he becomes a 20-25 home run hitter and the one where he hits 35-40 home runs. I believe with a change of scenery and something to prove, Young will reach that first plateau in 2008. He will still need to learn, along the way, that there are pitches you can drive and situations that call for expanding the zone, but to simply swing away isn’t how the vast majority of power-hitters approach hitting.

5 – Phillip Hughes/Joba Chamberlain, 22, RHP, NYA: Both of these young arms have a great deal of promise, with Hughes considered the best pitching prospect in baseball in 2006 and Chamberlain considered to be one of the top two pitching prospects in 2007. Hughes was inconsistent in his debut and eventually as sidelined with an ankle sprain. Chamberlain dominated at every level, until famously joining the Yankee bullpen and making a name for himself. He never got a crack at the rotation but based on how well he pitched, the expectations will be high. For that reason, neither is a huge “break-out” candidate, in the sense that both have a great deal of expectations to live up to, but both are primed to succeed at the big league level. It will be interesting to see who will have the better season.

4 – Alex Gordon, 24, 3B-L, KC: Gordon got off to an awful start, hitting a meager .232/.321/.358 prior to the All-Star break but saw improvement in the second half, hitting .264/.305/.472, showing that the power is there. He still has room to improve, but the tools are there for him to reach that level many saw for him as 2007’s number one prospect.

3 – Howie Kendrick: 24, 2B-R, LAA: Kendrick managed to demonstrate his amazing ability to make contact hitting .322/.347/.450 in 338 AB. The power was not there for him as he hit only 5 home runs in that span. This was entirely due to two wrist injuries that kept him from settling in. In each case, Kendrick would hit-hit-hit, get hurt, then slump upon return, then hit-hit-hit again. If manager Mike Scioscia can get Kendrick (a career .359 minor league hitter) from batting sixth in the order as he did for most of 2007 to hitting second, he will be a great table-setter for Vlad. I see a shot at a batting title and 20 home runs for Kendrick in 2008.

2 – Jeremy Bonderman/Felix Hernandez, 25/22, RHP, DET/SEA: I have placed these two pitchers together because both made their major league debuts before the age of 20, both have phenomenal stuff and both have failed to ascend to the level that many see as elite starting pitchers. The physical tools are there, but the experience has yet to come for these two. I would hope that it doesn’t take King Felix as long as it has taken Bonderman (I’ve been expecting break-outs for the past two seasons), but it only further emphasizes how difficult it is to pitch at the level that is expected of these two young players. Look for that ascension in 2008.

1 – Daisuke Matsuzaka, 27, RHP, BOS: The expectations were unthinkably high for Dice-K based on the $103.1 million the Red Sox invested to secure the Japanese right hander and many saw his 15-13 record, his 4.40 ERA and his mid-season slump and were disappointed. He definitely broke down in the second half, posting a 5.19 ERA in 85 innings with a 78/42 K/BB after the break but before that slump, he pitched every bit as well as advertised. In 119.2 pre-All-Star Game innings, Matsuzaka had a 3.84 ERA, and 123/38 K/BB. Baseball America’s top prospect in 2007 will see a vast improvement in 2008 as he learns the league, acclimates to the country and improves upon his control over his arsenal of pitches.

Honorable mention: Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Quentin, John Danks, Adam Jones and Edwin Jackson.

Tomorrow, the NL.

Mike Cameron Signs With Milwaukee

The Milwaukee Brewers have reportedly agreed to a one-year contract with CF Mike Cameron. Cameron will receive a $1.25 million signing bonus and $5 million in salary in 2008 with a $10 million team option for 2009. Due to Cameron’s 25-game suspension for amphetamine use, his prorated salary will be $4.22 million.

Cameron, 35, is coming off a .242/.328/.431 line in 2007 with 21 home runs. This isn’t far out of line with his career .251/.344/.455 line, which bodes well for the Brewers who up until this point, had largely focused on improving their bullpen but had failed to match a player of RF Kosuke Fukudome’s stature in their competition with the Cubs. With this move, the Brew Crew can ably replace OF Geoff Jenkin’s production but more importantly, improve a team defense that was one of the worst in the National League in 2007. With this move, they will shift OF/IF Bill Hall from center field–where he was lost–to third. They will then move rookie of the year, Ryan Braun from third–where he was lost–to left field.

Signing Cameron, the Brewers will have greatly improved their outfield defense and even if they elect to keep Braun at third and move Hall to left, their pitching staff can breath a little easier. I have heard Brewers general manager Doug Melvin say that he’d like Braun to remain at third because he believes that the tools are there to become an adequate third base man, but based on his performance as a big leaguer (.895 fielding percentage), that may be a stretch at this point. Moving Braun to left would certainly help the Brewers in 2008, but what will they do with 1B Matt LaPorta when he inevitably knocks down the door?

Financially, this move really works well for the small-market Brewers, only having to commit to one year and about a third of what the LA Angels will be paying CF Torri Hunter in 2008. With their very talented core of young players, they will likely see an increase in attendance as their fanbase begins to connect with the Brewers as a competitive team in the NL Central and should Cameron provide the .240/.330/.440 line we can generally expect of him with plus defense, picking up that 2009 option may make sense for them, even at $10 million. If not, he will certainly help their chances of beating the Cubs in 2008.

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Links and Such

John Sickels ranks the Tampa Bay Ray’s farm system. He gives their top three prospects A ratings. I would have guessed on 3B Evan Longoria and LHP David Price but I was a little surprised to see LHP Jacob McGee as an A. Below that, they have four B+ players. Wow.

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This is amazing. The formula to determine the grittiest players in the game. AWE-some. –Flotsam Media
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Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan picks Atlanta Braves RF Jeff Francoeur as his #1 breakout candidate in 2008 (subscription required). I think that’s a great pick and after some thought, I really like the Braves as a viable threat against the New York Mets provided they don’t sneak in and acquire LHP Johan Santana. They still need a centerfielder and Mark Kotsay isn’t the answer. They should have give Cameron the deal he got with Milwaukee.

I was planning on writing a break-out list, but my hand is being forced to do it sooner rather than later knowing that Sheehan will be finishing his list next week. I will put that list together over the weekend. Predicting breakouts is the key to winning in fantasy baseball. More on that later.