Player of the Week: Jay Bruce

Cincinnati Reds CF-L Jay Bruce is 2008’s prospect of the year. Baseball America hasn’t published its top 100 prospects yet, but when it does, Jay Bruce will be #1. When I publish my top 25 list (coming soon!), he will be #1.  He is already the number one prospect according to multiple sources, including Minor League Baseball (check the video provided to see live footage).

Bruce was selected 12th overall in the 2005 out of Westbrook high school in an amateur draft the was rich in high school outfield prospects, including OF-R Justin Upton (1st overall–Arizona), Cameron Maybin (10th overall–Detroit), Andrew McCutchen (11th overall–Pittsburgh), CF-L Jacoby Ellsbury (23rd overall–Boston), and Colby Rasmus (28th overall-St. Louis). Bruce outperformed all of his peers, hitting a combined .319/.375/.587 with 26 home runs in 521 at-bats between advanced A ball and AAA, never slugging less than .567 (AAA), as a 20 year-old, on his way to earning the Midwest League MVP award as well as Baseball America’s Player of the Year Award in 2007.

Most scouts would still rate Upton as the top talent out of the 2005 draft, but none will argue that Bruce could be every bit the superstar and contend for the top spot out of that talented crop of players. As much as Bruce is known for his talent, he is also regarded as having a great work ethic with excellent character and makeup, as Cincinnati General Manager Wayne Krivski notes, “He’s got a nice package of skills and ability to go along with that makeup…He’s 20 years old and having success in Triple-A…but for as much talent as he has, his family deserves all the credit for the quality person he is. Something like that cannot be quantified.”

In a recent ranking of Cincinatti’s top prospects, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus says:

“Bruce is loaded with both tools and skills. He’s a fantastic hitter who is seemingly incapable of light contact, projecting as a .300+ hitter who approaches 100 extra-base hits annually. He has average to slightly-above speed and has proven to be surprisingly capable in center field, while also showcasing a strong arm. He supplements his natural abilities with strong makeup and an outstanding work ethic.”

I’m not certain I would agree with the 100 extra basehits right off the bat–that’s like saying he’ll become Albert Pujols–but this is high praise for such a young player, and Cincinatti’s faith in Bruce led to their trading of CF-L Josh Hamilton, making room for Bruce in centerfield for 2008. Bruce will likely see a lot of time in center for the Reds in 2008, and while some scouts question his ability to stick in center beyond the next couple seasons, his hitting will be good enough to play in either outfield corner, where he will likely end up as a rightfielder once OF-L Ken Griffey Jr departs.

Beyond that, its anyones guess what kind of player Bruce will become. The sky is the limit. I see a player who will be a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate who hits 35-40 home runs in his peak.  His plate discipline has never been fantastic, but as a superior hitter at a young age, those skills will develop at the big league level as he learns the league. For this season, I see about 400 AB’s with a .280/.330/.480 line with close to 20 home runs.  I’m assuming his pitch selection will improve a little, even at the big league level. 

The Reds have a lot to be excited for in 2008 and with flawed teams in Milwaukee and Chicago competing for the NL Central title in 2008, the Reds are a solid sleeper pick for 2008, provided they get the type of production expected from players like Bruce.

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Baseball Prospectus’s Will Carroll weighs in on young pitcher usage on the Lohud Yankees Blog. The New York Yankees (RHP Joba Chamberlain, Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedyare in trouble) as well as the Tampa Bay Rays (LHP Scott Kazmirand RHP James Shields, Matt Garza) because young pitchers cannot pitch a lot of innings without a lot of risk involved according to the Year After Effect. Carroll suggests using Chamberlain in the rotation for 100 innings, then moving him to the bullpen. Makes sense, isn”t going to happen.

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The longest tenured General Manager in baseball, Kevin Towers, received a contract extension, to remain in San Diego through 2010. Most importantly, Towers has completed deals to keep sluggers 1B-L Adrian Gonzalezand RHP Jake Peavy and Chris Young in San Diego. The Peavy extensionrepresents a huge step in remaining in contention in the NL West where the Pads have largely been underdogs in recent years but have still managed to contend year after year.

Player of the Week: Kosuke Fukudome

Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, 30, has decided against playing for the Yoriumi Giants in Japan in favor of pursuing a career in Major League Baseball. It is believed the Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres are trying to sign the left-handed hitting right fielder.

Fukudome was the Nippon League’s 2006 Central League MVP, posting an impressive .351/.438/.653 line, along with 47 doubles and 31 home runs in 496 ABs. An elbow injury kept the star from playing the final two months of the 2007 season but he still managed a .294/.443/.520 line with 13 homers in 269 ABs.

What can we reasonably expect from Fukudome here in the states? As we’ve learned from many of the Japanese stars who have made the trip across the Pacific, we can’t count on the power to translate at the big league level as the strength of competition in Japan is not as great as here in the US and their ballparks tend to be smaller. None the less, Baseball Prospectus’s Clay Davenport conducted an excellent study comparing the Japanese leagues with the majors and found the level of competition to be “consistently rated as tougher than the American Triple-A leagues.”

For that reason, I find it interesting that the power has translated as poorly in the US as it has with the players who have made the trip. This has been the case most recently with Tampa Bay Rays infielder Akinori Iwamura who averaged 35 home runs in Japan from 2004-2006. In his Major League debut, managed all of 7 long balls, although his .285/.359/.411 line will play at second base where he will likely start in 2008. I see Iwamura as capable of doubling that figure in 2008 provided he plays regularly.

The only Japanese player to hit for superior power has been Hideki Matsui, who averaged 43 home runs in Japan from 2000-2002 with a career high 50 in 2002 before coming to the majors. Matsui has averaged close to 24 home runs in each of his full seasons in the majors with a career high 31 in 2004 but has managed to be a solid corner outfielder for the Yankees over his run with them.

I can’t expect any more than 10-15 home runs from Fukudome in 2008 but I wouldn’t be astonished if he hit close to 20 if he signs with the Cubs or White Sox. His real strength lies in his excellent plate discipline where he will be able to on-base enough to retain a lot of value. He has a smooth line-drive swing that could lead to a ton of doubles as well. I see a batting average around .300 with an on-base percentage between .370 – .390. He would be best served as a lead-off hitter based on his batting eye and likely lack of power.

He also features a plus arm with great throwing accuracy which will play well in right field. He won’t feature the speed or overall athleticism of Ichiro Suzuki, but he will be a solid right fielder having won four gold gloves in Japan and will probably make a decent run at a rookie of the year award.

For more information, check out Baseball Prospectus’s Mike Plugh’s article on Kosuke Fukudome—subscription required.

Jake Peavy, Padres Talking Extension: 3-Years $52 million

It is being reported Jake Peavy, 2007 pitching triple crown winner (19-6, 2.54 ERA, 240 K in 223.1 IP), is in discussions with the Padres for a contract extension worth $70 million that could keep the ace in San Diego until 2013. With Peavy set to make $6.5 million in 2008 and a team option for 2009 worth $11 million, and set to hit the free agent market following 2009, this is good news for the organization and its fans, trying to compete against the AZ Diamondbacks, the LA Dodgers and the COL Rockies in the NL West.

With the current deal, Peavy will still earn his 2008-09 pay, with the extension not beginning until 2010, where Peavy will make $15, 16 and 17 million from 2010-2012. There is a team option for $22 million, which they’d be foolish not to pick-up barring something unforeseen.

I understand that many players, like Trevor Hoffman and Brian Giles have also taken the San Diego discount to stay in San Diego and this is definitely the case with Peavy. With talks being worked out for a deal between the Minnesota Twins and Johan Santana, extensions are being mentioned in the $150 million range. Peavy really needs to fire his agent because given the market, he has seriously sold himself short.

Peavy is arguably one of the top two or three pitchers in the game and could make a decent run at Johan’s contract in 2009 with inflation in the free agent market going the way it is. Not to mention, on the open market, teams such as the Red Sox, the Yankees and possibly the Angels, Dodgers and Tigers could potentially get involved.

I commend a player for being loyal to his team and his fans but with the Padres struggling to stay competitive and all the prospect of playing for a better team, I think Peavy could have at least waited out 2009 before signing himself away, especially for a pitcher with an injury in his past and now as good as he will ever consistently be.

Still, the Padres have been running a pretty shrewd business since they compiled the front office team of CEO Sandy Alderson, VP/GM Kevin Towers, VP Scouting and Player Development Grady Fuson and former stat-savvy GM Paul Depodesta as a Special Assistant–they are a team to watch. They just lost Milton Bradley to the Texas Rangers over about $1 million dollars, so the Padres could use the good news. Still, signing SP Randy Wolf to a one-year $4.75 million deal plus incentives and getting C Michael Barrett back and remaining in the hunt for Kosuke Fukudome, they will try to be a contender again in 2008 as a marginal NL team.