Yesterday, I covered the breakout candidates for 2008 in the American league. Today, on to the senior circuit.
10 – Chris Iannetta, 25, C-R, COL: Iannetta failed in his chance at securing the Colorado starting catcher job only hitting .218/.330/.350 in 197 AB, but with Yorvit Torrealba as his only competition, the job should be his for the taking in 2008. Iannetta has never hit more than 14 home runs in a season, but his high batting average, high on-base percentage hitting style should play well in spacious Coors field. With a career minor league .303/.409/.509 line, at 25, Iannetta is more than ready to step in and secure the job.
9 – Andy LaRoche, 24, 3B-R, LAD: With Nomar Garciaparra returning for another year with the Dodgers, LaRoche may have to hit his way into a starting role, but nothing about his track record suggests that will be difficult for the young third baseman. With a career .295/.376/.525 minor league career, including a .309/.399/.589 performance at AAA in 2007, LaRoche will become a household name in Los Angels before the year is up.
8 – Anthony Reyes, 26, RHP, STL: Reyes looked a lot worse on paper in 2007, finishing with an abysmal 2-14 record for a bad St. Louis Cardinals team. Still, despite his 6.04 ERA, Reyes has a career minor league ERA of 3.26 with a 391/76 K/BB in 362.1 innings. I was shocked at his performance last season, but he will be a solid pitcher and a change of scenery may be in order for him.
7 – Matt Cain, 23, RHP, SF: Everything in 2007 was phenomenal for the 22 year-old Cain except the run-support, which led to a 7-16 record for the right-hander despite pitching exceptionally well. With another year in the majors, his control should improve gradually and his stuff will be through the roof, leading to great breakout potential for the young ace. I can’t speak to his win-loss record, however, as the Giants will likely occupy the cellar of the NL West in 2008.
6 – Stephen Drew, 25, SS-L, AZ: Drews first full major league season had to have been one of the big disappointments in 2007. Following a 209 AB major league debut in 2006, where Drew hit .316/.357/.517, he looked to be an above-average major league shortstop. However, with 2007 in the books, he only managed to hit .238/.313/.370 with 12 home runs. Still, he is young enough and has the track record to become the type of player many saw Bobby Crosby becoming as a .280/.360/.450-type player who hits between 15 and 20 home runs annually.
5 – Elijah Dukes/Lastings Milledge/Willy Mo Pena, 24/23/26, OF-R, WAS: All three of these outfielders were sent to Washington, or the new “Island of Misfit Toys,” for different reasons but none had anything to do with talent. Of these three, Milledge has the greatest chance of blossoming into a superstar but I really like Willy Mo’s power potential. He could very well become a Jermaine Dye-type player. Dukes needs to stop threatening to kill his wife and children before he can really think about baseball, but again, the talent is undeniable. A change of scenery, a fresh chance and some regular at-bats will do all three a lot of good.
4 – Jay Bruce, 21, OF-L, CIN: Bruce was unstoppable in 2007, vaulting his way from advanced A ball to AAA hitting a combined .319/.375/.587 with 26 home runs. It is only a matter of time with Bruce before the Reds give him his chance. He may not play the full season in 2008, but 300 or so CAB will be more than enough for Bruce to prove he is ready to play with the big boys.
3 – Chris B. Young, 24, CF-R, AZ: Young had what might be viewed as a confounding rookie debut, demonstrating all of the potential scouts and stat-heads alike saw in him, while also taking his one knock—his questionable strike-zone control to a new level. While Young was only 3 stolen bases shy of becoming the first 30-30 rookie of all time, he also only managed an abysmal .297 on-base percentage in a .237/.295/.467 line with 141/43 K/BB in 2007. With a career minor league isolated patience of .91 and his career major league isolated power sitting at .221, Young is primed for a breakout.
2 – Justin Upton, 20, RF-R, AZ: Following what many felt was a disappointing pro debut in 2006, Justin Upton exploded his way through advanced A ball and AA all the way to the major leagues, capping it off with 140 AB of .221/.283/.364 with 2 home runs in his time with the D-Backs as a 19 year-old (!!!). The former first overall pick of the 2005 draft, who at the time of his drafting drew comparisons to both Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. (one doesn’t earn comps like that for nothing), is here to stay. I see a 20-20 season, or damn close to it, for Upton in 2008 and from there, the sky is the limit for this young prodigy.
1 – Rickie Weeks, 25, 2B-R, MIL: I have been a fan of Rickie Weeks since he hit .500/.619/.987 for Southern University and was picked by the Milwaukee Brewers with the second overall pick in the 2003 amateur draft. Since then, Weeks was rushed to the big leagues and has had problems staying healthy during his time but he has consistently been able to show that he can hit. In 2005, as a 22 year-old, Weeks hit .268/.365/.442 with 25 home runs between AAA and the bigs.
Last season, Weeks struggled, hitting .212/.330/.363 with 5 home runs prior to the trade deadline. It at that time that he was demoted to AAA. In his final 150 at-bats, Weeks hit .273/.442/.553 with 11 homeruns, demonstrating the potential he has. It is getting to be crunch-time for Weeks because his glove has never played well at second base, so he will need to hit to stay there. I believe 2008 is the year he becomes a household name.
Honorable mention: Mike Jacobs, John Meloan, Miguel Montero, Geovany Soto (the real breakout was 2007), Edwin Encarnacion and Hong-Chih Kuo.
