Player of the Week: Jay Bruce

Cincinnati Reds CF-L Jay Bruce is 2008’s prospect of the year. Baseball America hasn’t published its top 100 prospects yet, but when it does, Jay Bruce will be #1. When I publish my top 25 list (coming soon!), he will be #1.  He is already the number one prospect according to multiple sources, including Minor League Baseball (check the video provided to see live footage).

Bruce was selected 12th overall in the 2005 out of Westbrook high school in an amateur draft the was rich in high school outfield prospects, including OF-R Justin Upton (1st overall–Arizona), Cameron Maybin (10th overall–Detroit), Andrew McCutchen (11th overall–Pittsburgh), CF-L Jacoby Ellsbury (23rd overall–Boston), and Colby Rasmus (28th overall-St. Louis). Bruce outperformed all of his peers, hitting a combined .319/.375/.587 with 26 home runs in 521 at-bats between advanced A ball and AAA, never slugging less than .567 (AAA), as a 20 year-old, on his way to earning the Midwest League MVP award as well as Baseball America’s Player of the Year Award in 2007.

Most scouts would still rate Upton as the top talent out of the 2005 draft, but none will argue that Bruce could be every bit the superstar and contend for the top spot out of that talented crop of players. As much as Bruce is known for his talent, he is also regarded as having a great work ethic with excellent character and makeup, as Cincinnati General Manager Wayne Krivski notes, “He’s got a nice package of skills and ability to go along with that makeup…He’s 20 years old and having success in Triple-A…but for as much talent as he has, his family deserves all the credit for the quality person he is. Something like that cannot be quantified.”

In a recent ranking of Cincinatti’s top prospects, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus says:

“Bruce is loaded with both tools and skills. He’s a fantastic hitter who is seemingly incapable of light contact, projecting as a .300+ hitter who approaches 100 extra-base hits annually. He has average to slightly-above speed and has proven to be surprisingly capable in center field, while also showcasing a strong arm. He supplements his natural abilities with strong makeup and an outstanding work ethic.”

I’m not certain I would agree with the 100 extra basehits right off the bat–that’s like saying he’ll become Albert Pujols–but this is high praise for such a young player, and Cincinatti’s faith in Bruce led to their trading of CF-L Josh Hamilton, making room for Bruce in centerfield for 2008. Bruce will likely see a lot of time in center for the Reds in 2008, and while some scouts question his ability to stick in center beyond the next couple seasons, his hitting will be good enough to play in either outfield corner, where he will likely end up as a rightfielder once OF-L Ken Griffey Jr departs.

Beyond that, its anyones guess what kind of player Bruce will become. The sky is the limit. I see a player who will be a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate who hits 35-40 home runs in his peak.  His plate discipline has never been fantastic, but as a superior hitter at a young age, those skills will develop at the big league level as he learns the league. For this season, I see about 400 AB’s with a .280/.330/.480 line with close to 20 home runs.  I’m assuming his pitch selection will improve a little, even at the big league level. 

The Reds have a lot to be excited for in 2008 and with flawed teams in Milwaukee and Chicago competing for the NL Central title in 2008, the Reds are a solid sleeper pick for 2008, provided they get the type of production expected from players like Bruce.

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Baseball Prospectus’s Will Carroll weighs in on young pitcher usage on the Lohud Yankees Blog. The New York Yankees (RHP Joba Chamberlain, Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedyare in trouble) as well as the Tampa Bay Rays (LHP Scott Kazmirand RHP James Shields, Matt Garza) because young pitchers cannot pitch a lot of innings without a lot of risk involved according to the Year After Effect. Carroll suggests using Chamberlain in the rotation for 100 innings, then moving him to the bullpen. Makes sense, isn”t going to happen.

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The longest tenured General Manager in baseball, Kevin Towers, received a contract extension, to remain in San Diego through 2010. Most importantly, Towers has completed deals to keep sluggers 1B-L Adrian Gonzalezand RHP Jake Peavy and Chris Young in San Diego. The Peavy extensionrepresents a huge step in remaining in contention in the NL West where the Pads have largely been underdogs in recent years but have still managed to contend year after year.

Rockies Extend Tulowitzki: 6-Years $30 Million

The Colorado Rockies have reportedly agreed to a contract extension with SS-R Troy Tulowitzki on a record six-year $30 million contract with a club option for 2014. This deal represents the largest contract for a player with only one-year of service time, eclipsing the six-year $23.45 million contract signed by CF-L Grady Sizemore in 2006.

Big ups to General Manager Dan O’Dowd and the Colorado Rockies front office for getting this deal done. They have managed to give themselves cost certainty through Tulowitzki’s arbitration years and have cut into his first two seasons of free agency provided they pick up their club option. As a result, Tulo won’t become a free agent until he turns 30.

Still, for the kid who was drafted 7th overall out of Long Beach State in 2005, Tulowitzki must be happy and he sure earned his new contract. Tulowitzki is coming off a stellar rookie season where he hit .291/.359/.479 with 24 home runs and 99 RBI in 609 at-bats. Tulowitzki also made a name for himself as a wizard with the glove and rated as the second best shortstop in baseball according to defensive zone rating and finished the season 24 fielding runs above average (FRAA). He finished in second place in rookie of the year voting behind 3B-R Ryan Braun of Milwaukee.

Regardless of what happens with LF-R Matt Holliday, whether he departs as a free agent following the 2009 season, Tulowitzki is exactly the type of player an organization wants to lock up longterm and build around as his defense at a middle of the diamond position will keep his value high. The only concern is his road performance as his he hit only .256/.327/.393 with 9 home runs, compared to .326/.392/.568 with 15 home runs at home. This disparity is troubling, but isn’t too much cause for concern as it was his rookie season.

All in all, this is a great deal for the Rockies and their fans.

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The St. Louis Cardinals have given C-R Yadier Molina a four-year extension with a club option for 2012. Like the Tulowitzki deal, this will keep the catcher with the Cardinals through one or two of his free agent seasons. Molina, living up to the family reputation, has consistently been one of the best defensive catchers in baseball although he has never hit too well.

The financial terms have not yet been disclosed but Molina likely is earning less than $20 million over the life of the deal and again, cost and position certainty are important for teams, particularly at a position like catcher where a working relation with a pitching staff is key.

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The Chicago White Sox have agreed to terms with RHP Octavio Dotel to a two-year $11 million deal. Dotel has battled arm injuries and was limited to 30.2 IP in 2007 and missed most of 2005-06 as well. This is another long-shot attempt by the White Sox at contending in 2008 through taking risk and giving a player who probably won’t pitch over the life of the contract in the hopes of getting something out of him in 2008.

I’m not buying it.

Glaus For Rolen

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to terms to trade 3B-R Troy Glaus for Scott Rolen. Because both players are damaged, former All-Star third basemen with no-trade clauses, it makes for a difficult trade to break down, namely to pick a winner. Perhaps, as what is being called a “challenge trade,” the only winners are Rolen and Glaus, who both needed a change of scenery, but that’s no fun. I’ve put a lot of thought into this one and decided with a trade as close as this one, it makes sense to break it down by offensive and defensive potential, the new ballparks (each player will now play in), health concerns and financial considerations.

The foremost concern for both players is their health. Glaus has been affected by his foot injury, plantar fasciitis and a long history of back problems that were exacerbated by playing on turf in Toronto. He will benefit from a move to grass, which was the reason he requested a trade to begin with. Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll had this to say:

“According to sources, Glaus had a nerve problem that was painful but not serious. He had surgery to decompress the nerve causing the pain due to plantar fasciitis.  Remember, the Cards have good experience with managing plantar fasciitis—they’ve been able to keep Albert Pujols on the field despite the condition, and Pujols has continued to produce due to some advanced techniques and plain old hard work.”

Rolen has been plagued by an arthritic shoulder that has sapped him of his power and most of his hitting ability. Again, Carroll weighs in on Rolen:

“Rolen’s arthritic condition is going to come back, but his most recent procedure shouldn’t be dissimilar to the last one in terms of results: he’ll be okay for a while, but the time will come when the shoulder will start to tighten up. At that point, Rolen’s going to have to take a hard look at a needle full of cortisone and the rest of his life after baseball. The question is if the Jays medical staff, among the best in the business, can control the symptoms and bring back some of Rolen’s power that’s been lost to the injury.”

Both players have had to deal with injuries but as far as offensive performance goes, Rolen seems to have been more affected offensively by his injury hitting only .265/.331/.398 with 8 home runs in 398 AB in 2007 after a promising 2006. Glaus was limited to 385 AB in 2007, but still managed to hit .262/.366/.473 with 20 home runs. Still, Rogers Centre in Toronto played as more of a hitters park than the new Busch Stadium. A closer look reveals this as Glaus hit .282/.402/.481 at home and .249/.341/.467 on the road. Meanwhile, Rolen hit .243/.319/.366 and a more respectable .289/.344/.432 on the road. Even with a change of scenery, Rolen may not be able to hit for as much power as he once did, but a solid boost to his batting average and some doubles should be more than possible. Glaus will need to keep his power stroke to retain his value but even in Busch, I would still pick Glaus to outperform Rolen.

Defensively, there is no comparison. Rolen has consistently rated as one of the best at third. Even with his injury, he still played +16 FRAA (fielding runs over the average third baseman), keeping his WARP1 at 4.1 despite his meager hitting. Glaus managed to play +3 FRAA and a 4.0 WARP1, which is good for Glaus who historically is slow and unathletic at the hot corner. It will be Rolen’s consistent defensive contribution that will keep his value reasonably high no matter what he hits.

All in all, because of the defense, it would seem likely that the Blue Jays came out on top in this trade because even in the worst season in Rolen’s career, he still outperformed Glaus overall (barely), but the financial considerations are what make the deal tough to assess.

With Rolen still owed $36 million over the remaining 3 years (left over from a eight-year $90 million contract extension–see, 8-year deals never work out), he is signed though his age 35 season, which is a long time for a player who is already being affected by injury. Glaus, on the other hand, picked up his player option for 2009, and will be paid $23.5 million over two years, signed through his age 33 season. This is probably the single most important factor in what is looking like a close trade and for this very reason, it looks like the Cardinals probably got the better end of the deal.

If Rolen, rejuvenated by the trade, is able to hit his way to a .290/.360/.440 line–and this is a big if–with his usual glovework, he may outperform Glaus. It will take Glaus hitting something like .250/.360/.500 to outperform Rolen. Either way, the Cardinals will be off the hook one season sooner, but health will be the ultimate determinant in this deal.

Primed for a Big Season: National League 2008

Yesterday, I covered the breakout candidates for 2008 in the American league. Today, on to the senior circuit.

10 – Chris Iannetta, 25, C-R, COL: Iannetta failed in his chance at securing the Colorado starting catcher job only hitting .218/.330/.350 in 197 AB, but with Yorvit Torrealba as his only competition, the job should be his for the taking in 2008. Iannetta has never hit more than 14 home runs in a season, but his high batting average, high on-base percentage hitting style should play well in spacious Coors field. With a career minor league .303/.409/.509 line, at 25, Iannetta is more than ready to step in and secure the job.

9 – Andy LaRoche, 24, 3B-R, LAD: With Nomar Garciaparra returning for another year with the Dodgers, LaRoche may have to hit his way into a starting role, but nothing about his track record suggests that will be difficult for the young third baseman. With a career .295/.376/.525 minor league career, including a .309/.399/.589 performance at AAA in 2007, LaRoche will become a household name in Los Angels before the year is up.

8 – Anthony Reyes, 26, RHP, STL: Reyes looked a lot worse on paper in 2007, finishing with an abysmal 2-14 record for a bad St. Louis Cardinals team. Still, despite his 6.04 ERA, Reyes has a career minor league ERA of 3.26 with a 391/76 K/BB in 362.1 innings. I was shocked at his performance last season, but he will be a solid pitcher and a change of scenery may be in order for him.

7 – Matt Cain, 23, RHP, SF: Everything in 2007 was phenomenal for the 22 year-old Cain except the run-support, which led to a 7-16 record for the right-hander despite pitching exceptionally well. With another year in the majors, his control should improve gradually and his stuff will be through the roof, leading to great breakout potential for the young ace. I can’t speak to his win-loss record, however, as the Giants will likely occupy the cellar of the NL West in 2008.

6 – Stephen Drew, 25, SS-L, AZ: Drews first full major league season had to have been one of the big disappointments in 2007. Following a 209 AB major league debut in 2006, where Drew hit .316/.357/.517, he looked to be an above-average major league shortstop. However, with 2007 in the books, he only managed to hit .238/.313/.370 with 12 home runs. Still, he is young enough and has the track record to become the type of player many saw Bobby Crosby becoming as a .280/.360/.450-type player who hits between 15 and 20 home runs annually.

5 – Elijah Dukes/Lastings Milledge/Willy Mo Pena, 24/23/26, OF-R, WAS: All three of these outfielders were sent to Washington, or the new “Island of Misfit Toys,” for different reasons but none had anything to do with talent. Of these three, Milledge has the greatest chance of blossoming into a superstar but I really like Willy Mo’s power potential. He could very well become a Jermaine Dye-type player. Dukes needs to stop threatening to kill his wife and children before he can really think about baseball, but again, the talent is undeniable. A change of scenery, a fresh chance and some regular at-bats will do all three a lot of good.

4 – Jay Bruce, 21, OF-L, CIN: Bruce was unstoppable in 2007, vaulting his way from advanced A ball to AAA hitting a combined .319/.375/.587 with 26 home runs. It is only a matter of time with Bruce before the Reds give him his chance. He may not play the full season in 2008, but 300 or so CAB will be more than enough for Bruce to prove he is ready to play with the big boys.

3 – Chris B. Young, 24, CF-R, AZ: Young had what might be viewed as a confounding rookie debut, demonstrating all of the potential scouts and stat-heads alike saw in him, while also taking his one knock—his questionable strike-zone control to a new level. While Young was only 3 stolen bases shy of becoming the first 30-30 rookie of all time, he also only managed an abysmal .297 on-base percentage in a .237/.295/.467 line with 141/43 K/BB in 2007. With a career minor league isolated patience of .91 and his career major league isolated power sitting at .221, Young is primed for a breakout.

2 – Justin Upton, 20, RF-R, AZ: Following what many felt was a disappointing pro debut in 2006, Justin Upton exploded his way through advanced A ball and AA all the way to the major leagues, capping it off with 140 AB of .221/.283/.364 with 2 home runs in his time with the D-Backs as a 19 year-old (!!!). The former first overall pick of the 2005 draft, who at the time of his drafting drew comparisons to both Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. (one doesn’t earn comps like that for nothing), is here to stay. I see a 20-20 season, or damn close to it, for Upton in 2008 and from there, the sky is the limit for this young prodigy.

1 – Rickie Weeks, 25, 2B-R, MIL: I have been a fan of Rickie Weeks since he hit .500/.619/.987 for Southern University and was picked by the Milwaukee Brewers with the second overall pick in the 2003 amateur draft. Since then, Weeks was rushed to the big leagues and has had problems staying healthy during his time but he has consistently been able to show that he can hit. In 2005, as a 22 year-old, Weeks hit .268/.365/.442 with 25 home runs between AAA and the bigs.

Last season, Weeks struggled, hitting .212/.330/.363 with 5 home runs prior to the trade deadline. It at that time that he was demoted to AAA. In his final 150 at-bats, Weeks hit .273/.442/.553 with 11 homeruns, demonstrating the potential he has. It is getting to be crunch-time for Weeks because his glove has never played well at second base, so he will need to hit to stay there. I believe 2008 is the year he becomes a household name.

Honorable mention: Mike Jacobs, John Meloan, Miguel Montero, Geovany Soto (the real breakout was 2007), Edwin Encarnacion and Hong-Chih Kuo.