James Shields and Locking-Up the Youngsters

The Tampa Bay Rays were unable to negotiate a longterm contract with ace LHP Scott Kazmir, but quickly moved forward, giving RHP James Shields a four-year contract extension with three separate one year club options, which could make the deal worth as much as $44 million. Shields, 26, is coming off a solid season for the Rays, pitching 215 innings with a 3.85 ERA, 184/36 K/BB ratio and a 12-8 record.

This type of move is exactly the type teams should explore, trading potentially $44 million in expense for cost certainty and retaining their young pitcher through his most productive seasons. If there is ever a time to give a player $44 million, it isn’t when RHP Carlos Silva hits the free agent market, its when a player shows enough promise to actually be worth the money. Also, giving pitchers long contracts is generally never a good idea, certainly longer than 3 years, but having three club options is unheard of and worth the risk. Like the Tulowtizki deal, this move will keep the young star past his age 30 season, when most players are on the decline. This move represents exactly the type of creativity that small market teams must use in order to build a competitive ballclub.

There are a number of young players that could also sign similar contracts and it would benefit their organizations to do so. It is key to sign player before they have enough service time under their belt to think they can strike it rich as free agents. This strategy is especially important for small market teams and teams out of contention because they are less likely to be able to replace superior talent.

Here is a complete list of players who should sign longterm contracts, if they are open to staying where they are (a big ‘if’):

• AZ: CF-R ChrisYoung
• BAL: OF-L Nick Markakis
• BOS: 2B-R Dustin Pedroia
• CLE: RHP Fausto Carmona
• COL: LHP Jeff Francis
• DET: CF-L Curtis Granderson, RHP Justin Verlander
• FL: SS-R Hanley Ramirez, RF-L Jeremy Hermida
• LAA: RHP Jered Weaver
• LAD: C-R Russell Martin (in a chat here, GM Ned Colletti said they tried, but Martin’s agent refused)
• MIL: 1B-L Prince Fielder
• NYM: RHP John Maine
• NYY: 2B-L Robinson Cano
• PHI: LHP Cole Hammels, 1B-L Ryan Howard (they’re trying hard with Howard)
• SF: RHP Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum
• SEA: RHP Felix Hernandez
• WAS: 3B-R Ryan Zimmerman

Did I miss anyone? There are other players who could qualify, but these are the no-brainers. It may not be possible in every case or it may take some creativity, but if these players can be retained, they must be. It will be interesting to see if any of these players do get locked up between now and Spring Training.
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Bob Gibson strikes out 17 in a World Series game. Ridiculous video, a lot of fun to watch. (Don’t Waste Wine)

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Baseball Prospectus’ Rany Jazayerli crunches some numbers and points out some interesting things from 2007. Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla had the most extra base hits ever for a middle infield tandem.

Player of the Week: Jay Bruce

Cincinnati Reds CF-L Jay Bruce is 2008’s prospect of the year. Baseball America hasn’t published its top 100 prospects yet, but when it does, Jay Bruce will be #1. When I publish my top 25 list (coming soon!), he will be #1.  He is already the number one prospect according to multiple sources, including Minor League Baseball (check the video provided to see live footage).

Bruce was selected 12th overall in the 2005 out of Westbrook high school in an amateur draft the was rich in high school outfield prospects, including OF-R Justin Upton (1st overall–Arizona), Cameron Maybin (10th overall–Detroit), Andrew McCutchen (11th overall–Pittsburgh), CF-L Jacoby Ellsbury (23rd overall–Boston), and Colby Rasmus (28th overall-St. Louis). Bruce outperformed all of his peers, hitting a combined .319/.375/.587 with 26 home runs in 521 at-bats between advanced A ball and AAA, never slugging less than .567 (AAA), as a 20 year-old, on his way to earning the Midwest League MVP award as well as Baseball America’s Player of the Year Award in 2007.

Most scouts would still rate Upton as the top talent out of the 2005 draft, but none will argue that Bruce could be every bit the superstar and contend for the top spot out of that talented crop of players. As much as Bruce is known for his talent, he is also regarded as having a great work ethic with excellent character and makeup, as Cincinnati General Manager Wayne Krivski notes, “He’s got a nice package of skills and ability to go along with that makeup…He’s 20 years old and having success in Triple-A…but for as much talent as he has, his family deserves all the credit for the quality person he is. Something like that cannot be quantified.”

In a recent ranking of Cincinatti’s top prospects, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus says:

“Bruce is loaded with both tools and skills. He’s a fantastic hitter who is seemingly incapable of light contact, projecting as a .300+ hitter who approaches 100 extra-base hits annually. He has average to slightly-above speed and has proven to be surprisingly capable in center field, while also showcasing a strong arm. He supplements his natural abilities with strong makeup and an outstanding work ethic.”

I’m not certain I would agree with the 100 extra basehits right off the bat–that’s like saying he’ll become Albert Pujols–but this is high praise for such a young player, and Cincinatti’s faith in Bruce led to their trading of CF-L Josh Hamilton, making room for Bruce in centerfield for 2008. Bruce will likely see a lot of time in center for the Reds in 2008, and while some scouts question his ability to stick in center beyond the next couple seasons, his hitting will be good enough to play in either outfield corner, where he will likely end up as a rightfielder once OF-L Ken Griffey Jr departs.

Beyond that, its anyones guess what kind of player Bruce will become. The sky is the limit. I see a player who will be a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate who hits 35-40 home runs in his peak.  His plate discipline has never been fantastic, but as a superior hitter at a young age, those skills will develop at the big league level as he learns the league. For this season, I see about 400 AB’s with a .280/.330/.480 line with close to 20 home runs.  I’m assuming his pitch selection will improve a little, even at the big league level. 

The Reds have a lot to be excited for in 2008 and with flawed teams in Milwaukee and Chicago competing for the NL Central title in 2008, the Reds are a solid sleeper pick for 2008, provided they get the type of production expected from players like Bruce.

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Baseball Prospectus’s Will Carroll weighs in on young pitcher usage on the Lohud Yankees Blog. The New York Yankees (RHP Joba Chamberlain, Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedyare in trouble) as well as the Tampa Bay Rays (LHP Scott Kazmirand RHP James Shields, Matt Garza) because young pitchers cannot pitch a lot of innings without a lot of risk involved according to the Year After Effect. Carroll suggests using Chamberlain in the rotation for 100 innings, then moving him to the bullpen. Makes sense, isn”t going to happen.

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The longest tenured General Manager in baseball, Kevin Towers, received a contract extension, to remain in San Diego through 2010. Most importantly, Towers has completed deals to keep sluggers 1B-L Adrian Gonzalezand RHP Jake Peavy and Chris Young in San Diego. The Peavy extensionrepresents a huge step in remaining in contention in the NL West where the Pads have largely been underdogs in recent years but have still managed to contend year after year.

Base Hits: Teixeira, Cabrera sign; Robertson gets Extension

Wrapping up with arbitration stories, the Atlanta Braves are gearing up for their last hurrah, signing 1B-S Mark Teixeira to a one-year $12.5 million contract. It will be unlikely that the Braves will be able to retain the Boras client for less than market value, but if the Braves put together a good run in the NL East, Teixeira may enjoy playing for manager Bobby Cox. I still look for Teixeira to depart after the 2007 season.

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The Detroit Tigers have agreed to terms with 3B-R Miguel Cabrera on a one-year $11.3 million, a significant raise from his 2006 salary of $7.4 million. This was a first step toward locking up the 25 year-old phenom long-term. It seems obvious that Cabrera wouldn’t sign a long-term deal without experiencing playing in the American League and playing for manager Jim Leyland, but the Tigers have the pieces in place to become a strong contender in 2007 and that’s what it’s going to take to entice Cabrera to stay.

The Tigers also signed LHP Nate Robertson to a 3-year $21.25 million extension. The “innings eater” will give the Tigers some stability at the back end of the rotation. I’m not crazy about Robertson or what he does on the mound, but the Tigers will still have some flexibility after 2007 once LHP Kenny Rogers comes off the books.

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The Tampa Bay Rays have traded for former Braves IF-S Willy Aybar. Aybar, 24, when he signed with the LA Dodgers, received the highest signing bonus of all time for a Dominican player, but after a trade to the Braves, battled problems with substance abuse and hasn’t played since 2006. Still, Aybar is exactly the type of player the Rays could use to build up competition in their middle infield and still figures to be a solid offensive contributor if he puts his past behind him.

Arbitration Underway: Early Winners and Losers

Contracts are being signed left and right as organizations and players are coming to terms on short-term contracts, smartly avoiding the arbitration process. As much as most players try to keep the “business” of baseball in mind, going through the process often leaves a bad taste in players’ mouths, so organizations strive to appease their players by avoiding the process altogether. In some cases, when the figures being thrown around do not agree, arbitration is inevitable. Here is a list of some winners and losers.

Winners:

Oakland Athletics: We all know the A’s are rebuilding by now. For that reason, they need to keep risk to a minimum. Where before, Billy Beane and company were considering locking up closer RHP Huston Street to a long-term deal, having suffered an elbow injury in 2007, they wisely locked him up to a one-year deal. Likewise, the A’s agreed to terms on a one-year deal with RHP Joe Blanton. The A’s have been traditionally very good at securing young talent–RHP Rich Harden, RHP Dan Haren, OF-S Nick Swisher–that is not their priority for now. If the A’s elect to trade either player, locking them up to longer deals will be up to their new teams.

Carlos Pena: When journeymen strike it rich, it’s usually not a great idea (see: Gary Matthews Jr.), but 1B-L Carlos Pena showed in 2007 that he can hit, mashing to a .282/.411/.627 clip with 46 home runs in 490 AB. That performance was a shocker to everyone in baseball and earned Pena the Comeback Player of the Year award. The 30-year old slugger earned every penny of his $24.125 million deal.

Colorado Rockies: After LF-R Matt Holliday, Scott Boras rejected a 5-year $60 million contract to keep the MVP runner-up in Coors, Dan O’Dowd has given Holliday a 2-year $23 million deal, keeping the slugger in uniform through his walk-year in 2009. In this regard, the Rockies have done the next best thing aside from giving Holliday an extension, they’re keeping him happy. Now, when it comes time to attempt to negotiate an extension following the 2008 season, Boras and Holliday will remember this.

Losers:

Kevin Youkilis: The Red Sox and 1B-R Kevin Youkilis were unable to come to terms on a contract with Youkilis asking for $3.7 million and the Red Sox offering $2.5 million. As a corner infielder with only a little bit of pop, Youkilis should be content starting for a championship team. Even if he is liked by the fans, has been a key contributor, the Sox have already shown that corner infielders aren’t hard to come by and aren’t difficult to replace when they let fan favorite Kevin Millar walk. Clearly, it’s a different situation as Youkilis is only 29 and Millar was 33, and I’m not saying Youk shouldn’t ask for the money, he just has a rude awakening ahead when he learns the Red Sox don’t value him as much as he thinks they might.

New York Mets: The Mets have a long process ahead of them over what doesn’t amount to a lot of money. With LHP Oliver Perez, the differences of $1.775 million (asked $6.5 million, offered $4.725 million), isn’t much for a team who should explore retaining their reclamation success story. They are also at odds with RHP Jorge Sosa ($1.05 million), OF-L Ryan Church ($700,000), RHP Pedro Feliciano ($320,000) and OF-L Endy Chavez ($350,000). While most of these guys aren’t superior talents, taking a player to arbitration represents a lack of control on the part of the organization, who can just as easily offer a mult-year deal and retain some cost-control or certainty beyond 2008.

Philadelphia Phillies: You know the best not to lock your superstar slugger to an extension? Take ‘em to court. The Phillies and 1B-L Ryan Howard are going to an arbiter over a reported difference of $3 million (Phillies $7 million, Howard $10 million). If they had instead offered him a two-year deal, or even a deal that covered Howard through his arb years, they would likely save money in the long-run and give themselves a better chance at retaining Howard.  Howard is asking for a lot though, as $10 million would be the highest first year award ever (Miguel Cabrera was most in 2007 at $7.4 million).  Howard isn’t going to be happy when he ends up getting $7 million.

Primed for Big Seasons: American League 2008

As I mentioned in my last post, Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan named Jeff Francoeur his number one breakout candidate for 2008. I thought that was a great pick and that was a topic I’d been looking forward to addressing prior to the 2008 season. Since Sheehan said he’d work on that article for this week, I felt I had to get my ideas down before he did.

There is nothing more important and significant to a player’s career than a major league breakout, meaning a player takes a dramatic step forward in their performance and becomes the star they were projected to be. This can happen as a result of a player’s health improving, experience and ability finally coming together, pending free-agency and sometimes even the acquisition of a new pitch (for a pitcher) or a change of scenery. Here is a look at some guys who I feel have laid the groundwork to have huge seasons in the American League in 2008.

10 – Dioner Navarro, 24, C-S, TB: Since starting full-time with the Dodgers as a 22 year-old, Navarro has been trying to make it as a major league catcher. While his time in Tampa has been anything but promising (.227/.286/.356 in 2007), following the All-Star break, he hit .285/.340/.475 with 8 of his 9 home runs coming in that span. I’m not saying he’s the next big thing but I’ve always felt he could be a solid regular for a team and next season, he seems primed to make that jump.

9 – Masahide Kobayashi, 33, RHP, CLE: Signing a two-year deal with the Cleveland Indians, Kobayashi is the candidate most likely to step in as the team’s closer, replacing Joe “Get-er-Done” Borowski. Mike Plugh of Baseball Prospectus writes that Kobayashi features a high-90’s fast ball and a slider and given seven seasons as the closer for the Chiba Lotte Marines, he may take the American League by storm in 2008 for a strong Cleveland ball club.

8 – Boof Bonser, 26, RHP, MIN: The 6’4” 260 pound right-hander has always had good stuff and command of his stuff but the long ball has always been a source of trouble. While his 2007 season looked bad on paper, 5.10 ERA, his K/9 (7.08) and track record bode well for the big righty. Remember, in 2006, between AAA and his time in the bigs, Bonser pitched 186.2 innings with 167 K, 59 BB, 22 HR and a 3.90 ERA. Also, with Delmon Young in left, where he should be above average and the acquisition of Coco Crisp or Jacoby Ellsbury as likely possibilities, Minnesota’s outfield defense should be helpful to the cause.

7 – Evan Longoria, 22, 3B-R, TB – Alex Gordon demonstrated in 2007 that even “can’t miss” prospects sometimes can struggle at the big league level but he’s also my pick for AL rookie of the year. He can mash, hitting for power to all fields—last season, Longoria hit a combined .299/.402/.520 between AA and AAA—and his defense should be above average.

6 – Delmon Young, 22, OF-R, MIN: There is one glaring hole in Delmon Young’s game: pitch recognition. His development, namely his power, will depend heavily upon how that area of his game improves. In order for Young to reach the potential most see in him, earning comparisons to Albert Belle and Vladimir Guerrero, it will take two breakouts: one where he becomes a 20-25 home run hitter and the one where he hits 35-40 home runs. I believe with a change of scenery and something to prove, Young will reach that first plateau in 2008. He will still need to learn, along the way, that there are pitches you can drive and situations that call for expanding the zone, but to simply swing away isn’t how the vast majority of power-hitters approach hitting.

5 – Phillip Hughes/Joba Chamberlain, 22, RHP, NYA: Both of these young arms have a great deal of promise, with Hughes considered the best pitching prospect in baseball in 2006 and Chamberlain considered to be one of the top two pitching prospects in 2007. Hughes was inconsistent in his debut and eventually as sidelined with an ankle sprain. Chamberlain dominated at every level, until famously joining the Yankee bullpen and making a name for himself. He never got a crack at the rotation but based on how well he pitched, the expectations will be high. For that reason, neither is a huge “break-out” candidate, in the sense that both have a great deal of expectations to live up to, but both are primed to succeed at the big league level. It will be interesting to see who will have the better season.

4 – Alex Gordon, 24, 3B-L, KC: Gordon got off to an awful start, hitting a meager .232/.321/.358 prior to the All-Star break but saw improvement in the second half, hitting .264/.305/.472, showing that the power is there. He still has room to improve, but the tools are there for him to reach that level many saw for him as 2007’s number one prospect.

3 – Howie Kendrick: 24, 2B-R, LAA: Kendrick managed to demonstrate his amazing ability to make contact hitting .322/.347/.450 in 338 AB. The power was not there for him as he hit only 5 home runs in that span. This was entirely due to two wrist injuries that kept him from settling in. In each case, Kendrick would hit-hit-hit, get hurt, then slump upon return, then hit-hit-hit again. If manager Mike Scioscia can get Kendrick (a career .359 minor league hitter) from batting sixth in the order as he did for most of 2007 to hitting second, he will be a great table-setter for Vlad. I see a shot at a batting title and 20 home runs for Kendrick in 2008.

2 – Jeremy Bonderman/Felix Hernandez, 25/22, RHP, DET/SEA: I have placed these two pitchers together because both made their major league debuts before the age of 20, both have phenomenal stuff and both have failed to ascend to the level that many see as elite starting pitchers. The physical tools are there, but the experience has yet to come for these two. I would hope that it doesn’t take King Felix as long as it has taken Bonderman (I’ve been expecting break-outs for the past two seasons), but it only further emphasizes how difficult it is to pitch at the level that is expected of these two young players. Look for that ascension in 2008.

1 – Daisuke Matsuzaka, 27, RHP, BOS: The expectations were unthinkably high for Dice-K based on the $103.1 million the Red Sox invested to secure the Japanese right hander and many saw his 15-13 record, his 4.40 ERA and his mid-season slump and were disappointed. He definitely broke down in the second half, posting a 5.19 ERA in 85 innings with a 78/42 K/BB after the break but before that slump, he pitched every bit as well as advertised. In 119.2 pre-All-Star Game innings, Matsuzaka had a 3.84 ERA, and 123/38 K/BB. Baseball America’s top prospect in 2007 will see a vast improvement in 2008 as he learns the league, acclimates to the country and improves upon his control over his arsenal of pitches.

Honorable mention: Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Quentin, John Danks, Adam Jones and Edwin Jackson.

Tomorrow, the NL.

Mike Cameron Signs With Milwaukee

The Milwaukee Brewers have reportedly agreed to a one-year contract with CF Mike Cameron. Cameron will receive a $1.25 million signing bonus and $5 million in salary in 2008 with a $10 million team option for 2009. Due to Cameron’s 25-game suspension for amphetamine use, his prorated salary will be $4.22 million.

Cameron, 35, is coming off a .242/.328/.431 line in 2007 with 21 home runs. This isn’t far out of line with his career .251/.344/.455 line, which bodes well for the Brewers who up until this point, had largely focused on improving their bullpen but had failed to match a player of RF Kosuke Fukudome’s stature in their competition with the Cubs. With this move, the Brew Crew can ably replace OF Geoff Jenkin’s production but more importantly, improve a team defense that was one of the worst in the National League in 2007. With this move, they will shift OF/IF Bill Hall from center field–where he was lost–to third. They will then move rookie of the year, Ryan Braun from third–where he was lost–to left field.

Signing Cameron, the Brewers will have greatly improved their outfield defense and even if they elect to keep Braun at third and move Hall to left, their pitching staff can breath a little easier. I have heard Brewers general manager Doug Melvin say that he’d like Braun to remain at third because he believes that the tools are there to become an adequate third base man, but based on his performance as a big leaguer (.895 fielding percentage), that may be a stretch at this point. Moving Braun to left would certainly help the Brewers in 2008, but what will they do with 1B Matt LaPorta when he inevitably knocks down the door?

Financially, this move really works well for the small-market Brewers, only having to commit to one year and about a third of what the LA Angels will be paying CF Torri Hunter in 2008. With their very talented core of young players, they will likely see an increase in attendance as their fanbase begins to connect with the Brewers as a competitive team in the NL Central and should Cameron provide the .240/.330/.440 line we can generally expect of him with plus defense, picking up that 2009 option may make sense for them, even at $10 million. If not, he will certainly help their chances of beating the Cubs in 2008.

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Links and Such

John Sickels ranks the Tampa Bay Ray’s farm system. He gives their top three prospects A ratings. I would have guessed on 3B Evan Longoria and LHP David Price but I was a little surprised to see LHP Jacob McGee as an A. Below that, they have four B+ players. Wow.

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This is amazing. The formula to determine the grittiest players in the game. AWE-some. –Flotsam Media
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Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan picks Atlanta Braves RF Jeff Francoeur as his #1 breakout candidate in 2008 (subscription required). I think that’s a great pick and after some thought, I really like the Braves as a viable threat against the New York Mets provided they don’t sneak in and acquire LHP Johan Santana. They still need a centerfielder and Mark Kotsay isn’t the answer. They should have give Cameron the deal he got with Milwaukee.

I was planning on writing a break-out list, but my hand is being forced to do it sooner rather than later knowing that Sheehan will be finishing his list next week. I will put that list together over the weekend. Predicting breakouts is the key to winning in fantasy baseball. More on that later.

Quick Hits

Curt Schilling calls out another great, after A-Rod (bush-league), Barry Bonds (cheater) and now Roger Clemens (cheater). I saw the story on ESPN and had to read the article before jumping to conclusions, but I went in pissed on Roger’s behalf. After reading it, I have to admit, I agree with him on a lot of points. If anyone was accused falsely, they need to take it to court. NO ONE HAS, ever. The article is very well written and makes a compelling argument. Definitely worth a read. I truly hope he never gets connected to HGH, even if with a prescription and an injury. Schilling, like Clemens, was famous for intensive off-season work-out programs that is often attributed to Clemens.

This whole steroid thing is ugly, but it’s something everyone has always known about. The Mitchell report didn’t tell us anything new, except Roger Clemens. The issue was staring us in the face, even Clemens. That one hurt, but it makes sense and it proves anyone could have done it, even once.

Our generations best hitter and pitcher got a little extra help.

I want to know, if an HGH prescription is legal, if used for medical healing purposes, then is HGH use before 2005 okay? It shouldn’t be promoted but its not illegal, like buying steroids off the black market or shady distributors like BALCO.

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Good read: Baseball Analyst’s Al Doyle points out why all but a handful of teams should avoid spending big money to make marginal improvement. I say save the money and invest it in the draft like Tampa has.

Andrew at True Blue LA explains why some teams can.

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I know this one has been linked a lot, but DRaysBay, a site I’ve begun to read and admire in the SB nation, has an interview with Robert “Voros” McCracken, formerly a big league consultant with the Boston Red Sox.

Better still is McCracken’s article on Defense Independent Pitching Statistics from Baseball Prospectus (circa 2001), which is a classic and a groundbreaking piece. If you haven’t read this one, or aren’t aware of these basic ideas, you’re in for an eye-opener.

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Let’s get some talent evaluation into the mix: John Sickels of Minor League Ball scouts Jacoby Ellsbury, Cameron Maybin and grades both Yankee Clemens-look-a-like Joba Chamberlain (not roids, just looks) and Clay Buchholz “A” prospects.

Who do you think is 1A?

A: I think Buchholz has proven himself for longer, but the ballpark will even out their numbers on the surface in 2008. Long term, it’s anyone’s guess.

What’s the Word? Tampa Bay Rays Aim to Edge Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays signed outfielder Cliff Floyd to a 1-Year $2.75 million contract with $2 million in incentives. Floyd will get partial play-time on both outfield corners, splitting time with OF Rocco Baldelli and Jonny Gomes and may also see some time at DH. Floyd, 35, spent 2007 with the Chicago Cubs, hitting .284/.373/.422 with 9 home runs in 282 AB.

With this move, the Rays have what looks like a nice mix of cheap, effective veteran talent to go along with a competitive core of young players with a lot of upside and this may be the season that we’ve all been expecting from them since the birth of the franchise. We’ve been watching them for a while, always thinking, “they’ll be good one of these days.” We may get a glimpse of that this season.

I’m not saying they’ll de-throne the Yankees or the Red Sox any time soon. They lack the financial resources to do that at this time. It may be possible some day should the team begin to see progress and build up a fanbase and revenue to lock up some of their young talent but for now, they should have their eyes dead-set on third place. I think they can do it.

They have to beat the always-slightly-above-average-at-all-positions Toronto Blue Jays, who generally finish in third give or take. They are always good but never have quite what it takes to make a play-off berth.

Let’s start by comparing the two teams rotations and back end of their bullpens with some loose 2008 projections provided.

Tampa Bay Rays

1. Scott Kazmir, LHP – 200 IP – 3.50 ERA – 220 K – 90 BB
2. James Shields, RHP – 200 IP – 4.00 ERA – 150 K – 60 BB
3. Matt Garza, RHP – 180 IP – 3.90 ERA – 160 K – 60 BB
4. Edwin Jackson, RHP – 150IP – 5.00 ERA – 120 K – 80BB
5. Andy Sonnanstine, LHP – 120 IP – 4.90 ERA – 90K – 40BB

Bullpen

1. CL – Troy Percival – 50 IP – 3.50 ERA – 40 K – 15 BB – 26 SV
2. SU – Dan Wheeler – 70 IP – 3.00 ERA – 60 K – 20 BB
3. SU – Al Reyes – 60 IP – 3.80 ERA – 60 IP – 20 BB

The top of the rotation is solid, with Kazmir capable of posting ace numbers. Last season, he messed around with his mechanics early in the season, but went back to just pitching and his numbers improved dramatically later on in the season. I see Shields as a candidate to regress in 2008, but his 2007 was impressive. The question will be whether or not the control-artist can maintain that high of a strikeout rate with a change-up. He won’t be walking anyone, that’s for sure. Garza will enter the rotation from the beginning of the season and the only worry will be how his arm holds up under a heavier workload, but he should be good for a 3.60 – 4.00 ERA and he will be closely monitored. With guys like Jackson and Sonnanstine, they may only remain in the rotation as long as they’re able to hold down the young guns with guys like Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and Jacob McGee surely knocking, although the latter two are still a ways away. Beware, David Price is coming soon.

As for the bullpen, Percival is a big health risk, having missed all of 2006, but he pitched 40 quality innings in 2007, so he may be a Joe Borowski-type closer for them. I think Reyes will pitch as he did in 2007 and Wheeler will pitch more in line with his 2006 numbers since he won’t be moved around as often as in 2007. Beyond those three, they have Eduardo Morlan, who they got in the Garza-Young trade–I think he’ll step in and make an impact in 2008–but not much else.

Here is Toronto’s rotation for 2008:

1. Roy Halladay, RHP – 220 IP – 3.50 ERA – 130 K – 40 BB
2. AJ Burnett, RHP – 160 IP – 3.60 ERA – 160 K – 60 BB
3. Dustin McGowan, RHP – 190 IP – 4.00 ERA – 140 K – 60 BB
4. Gustavo Chacin, LHP – 140 IP – 4.90 ERA – 90 K – 60 BB
5. Jesse Litsch, RHP – 160 IP – 4.60 ERA – 100 K – 60 BB

Bullpen

1. CL – BJ Ryan, LHP – 70 IP – 2.40 ERA – 90 K – 30 BB – 35 SV
2. SU – Jeremy Accardo, RHP – 70 IP – 2.90 ERA – 60 K – 25 BB
3. SU – Casey Janssen, RHP – 60 IP – 3.80 ERA – 50 K – 20 BB

The rotation situation in Toronto is much more dire, with Doc Halladay and McGowan as the only guys who probably won’t miss time. If Burnett can remain healthy, they will have a solid #1 – 3, but even then, without much depth in the pipeline, they can’t afford to lose anyone in the rotation. In the bullpen, if Ryan comes back strong, it will give them a presence in the bullpen that Tampa Bay can not match.

Here is a comparison of the two teams lineups. I will put together what I think their starting nine should be, again, with my projections.

Tampa Bay Rays:

1. LF – Carl Crawford, L – .310/.360/.480 – 16 HR – 55 SB
2. RF – Rocco Baldelli, R – .290/.340/.460 – 15 HR – 20 SB (400 AB)
3. CF – B.J. Upton, R – .290/.360/.490 – 25 HR – 25 SB
4. 1B – Carlos Pena, L – .270/.390/.530 – 32 HR
5. DH – Cliff Floyd/Jonny Gomes, L/R – .270/.350/.440 – 10 HR / .240/.330/.460 – 12 HR
6. 3B – Evan Longoria, R – .280/.360/.470 – 18 HR (400 AB)
7. 2B – Akinori Iwamura, L – .290/.360/.420 – 12 HR
8. SS – Jason Barlett, R – .270/.340/.370 – 18 SB
9. C – Dioner Navarro, S – .250/.330/.350

It’s difficult to project some players, like Upton, who broke out in 2007, but struck out way too often to sustain that kind of success. His patience has always been good so if he continues to make strides, the sky is the limit. I see Pena as a big regression candidate and I don’t know how I feel about listing him with even as many as 32 home runs but the man can hit. I’m a huge fan of Longoria and I say, the sooner he’s up the better. He is my pick for AL Rookie of the Year. I also like Navarro, as a former Dodger, and he may just turn the corner after a strong second half in 2007. This is a team that is very well-balanced, looks pretty strong on paper and has a lot of upside.

The Toronto Blue Jays:

1. SS – David Eckstein, R – .290/.350/.360 – 1 HR
2. CF – Vernon Wells, R – .280/.330/.460 – 23 HR
3. RF – Alex Rios, R – .300/.350/.500 – 26 HR – 15 SB
4. DH – Frank Thomas, R – .250/.370/.520 – 25 HR (400 AB)
5. 3B – Troy Glaus, R – .255/.350/.480 – 30 HR
6. 1B – Lyle Overbay, R – .270/.350/.450 – 15 HR
7. LF – Adam Lind, L – .280/.350/.470 – 22 HR
8. 2B – Aaron Hill, R – .290/.340/.440 – 12 HR
9. C – Greg Zaun, S – .240/.310/.380 – 8 HR

While Toronto’s lineup has more power than Tampa’s, they are also a very right-handed heavy team and following a lot of poor performances in 2007 from guys like Wells, Lind and Overbay, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt looking for improvement. Also, they’ll need Glaus and Thomas to stay healthy. Toronto has a lot of question marks here and if Overbay fails to recover from his injury or Wells remains his usual mediocre self, they’ll be in trouble.

Defensively, Toronto rated the best in baseball according to defensive efficiency, while Tampa Bay was dead-lastin 2007. Tampa will not be fielding the same defense this season though. With Longoria stepping in at third (I think plus defender) and Iwamura relieving Upton at second, they will be much better off. Also, the additions of Barlett and a healthy Bardelli will bolster the defense. I think the Rays have a chance to at least be in the middle of the pack.

With that, look for Tampa Bay to beat out the Toronto Blue Jays in 2008 thanks to a break out or two (I say Evan Longoria and Matt Garza) along with the rest of their core of young players, supported by a Pena and a Percival. They will be a fun team to watch in 2008.