Glaus For Rolen

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to terms to trade 3B-R Troy Glaus for Scott Rolen. Because both players are damaged, former All-Star third basemen with no-trade clauses, it makes for a difficult trade to break down, namely to pick a winner. Perhaps, as what is being called a “challenge trade,” the only winners are Rolen and Glaus, who both needed a change of scenery, but that’s no fun. I’ve put a lot of thought into this one and decided with a trade as close as this one, it makes sense to break it down by offensive and defensive potential, the new ballparks (each player will now play in), health concerns and financial considerations.

The foremost concern for both players is their health. Glaus has been affected by his foot injury, plantar fasciitis and a long history of back problems that were exacerbated by playing on turf in Toronto. He will benefit from a move to grass, which was the reason he requested a trade to begin with. Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll had this to say:

“According to sources, Glaus had a nerve problem that was painful but not serious. He had surgery to decompress the nerve causing the pain due to plantar fasciitis.  Remember, the Cards have good experience with managing plantar fasciitis—they’ve been able to keep Albert Pujols on the field despite the condition, and Pujols has continued to produce due to some advanced techniques and plain old hard work.”

Rolen has been plagued by an arthritic shoulder that has sapped him of his power and most of his hitting ability. Again, Carroll weighs in on Rolen:

“Rolen’s arthritic condition is going to come back, but his most recent procedure shouldn’t be dissimilar to the last one in terms of results: he’ll be okay for a while, but the time will come when the shoulder will start to tighten up. At that point, Rolen’s going to have to take a hard look at a needle full of cortisone and the rest of his life after baseball. The question is if the Jays medical staff, among the best in the business, can control the symptoms and bring back some of Rolen’s power that’s been lost to the injury.”

Both players have had to deal with injuries but as far as offensive performance goes, Rolen seems to have been more affected offensively by his injury hitting only .265/.331/.398 with 8 home runs in 398 AB in 2007 after a promising 2006. Glaus was limited to 385 AB in 2007, but still managed to hit .262/.366/.473 with 20 home runs. Still, Rogers Centre in Toronto played as more of a hitters park than the new Busch Stadium. A closer look reveals this as Glaus hit .282/.402/.481 at home and .249/.341/.467 on the road. Meanwhile, Rolen hit .243/.319/.366 and a more respectable .289/.344/.432 on the road. Even with a change of scenery, Rolen may not be able to hit for as much power as he once did, but a solid boost to his batting average and some doubles should be more than possible. Glaus will need to keep his power stroke to retain his value but even in Busch, I would still pick Glaus to outperform Rolen.

Defensively, there is no comparison. Rolen has consistently rated as one of the best at third. Even with his injury, he still played +16 FRAA (fielding runs over the average third baseman), keeping his WARP1 at 4.1 despite his meager hitting. Glaus managed to play +3 FRAA and a 4.0 WARP1, which is good for Glaus who historically is slow and unathletic at the hot corner. It will be Rolen’s consistent defensive contribution that will keep his value reasonably high no matter what he hits.

All in all, because of the defense, it would seem likely that the Blue Jays came out on top in this trade because even in the worst season in Rolen’s career, he still outperformed Glaus overall (barely), but the financial considerations are what make the deal tough to assess.

With Rolen still owed $36 million over the remaining 3 years (left over from a eight-year $90 million contract extension–see, 8-year deals never work out), he is signed though his age 35 season, which is a long time for a player who is already being affected by injury. Glaus, on the other hand, picked up his player option for 2009, and will be paid $23.5 million over two years, signed through his age 33 season. This is probably the single most important factor in what is looking like a close trade and for this very reason, it looks like the Cardinals probably got the better end of the deal.

If Rolen, rejuvenated by the trade, is able to hit his way to a .290/.360/.440 line–and this is a big if–with his usual glovework, he may outperform Glaus. It will take Glaus hitting something like .250/.360/.500 to outperform Rolen. Either way, the Cardinals will be off the hook one season sooner, but health will be the ultimate determinant in this deal.

Johan Santana Revisited

Talks have been on hold since we last checked in but it seems the New York Yankees have backed out of the deadline they placed in the Johan Santana trade negotiations. That was quick. There are several trades on the table, or at least believed to be on the table. What happens if the Yankees or the Red Sox–pretty much the two heaviest hitters in the American League–acquire Santana? A look at each scenario with projections.

New York Yankees

1. Johan Santana, LHP – 220 IP – 2.60 ERA – 240 K – 6o BB
2. Chien-Ming Wang, RHP – 210 IP – 3.60 ERA – 120K – 60 BB
3. Andy Pettitte, LHP – 180 IP – 4.40 ERA – 130 K – 60 BB
4. Joba Chamberlain, RHP – 180 IP – 3.50 ERA – 160 K -50 BB
5. Mike Mussina, RHP – 140 IP – 4.60 ERA – 90 K – 50 BB

Provided they don’t trade Ian Kennedy, he would step in if something goes wrong. As a college finesse pitcher, he would represent a good fit as a fourth or fifth starter. In limited time, I see Kennedy as a healthy young arm with marginal stuff–fast ball maxes out at 92 mph / sits in the 88-90 mph range.

Ian Kennedy, RHP – 120 IP – 4.20 ERA – 80 K 30 BB

That’s a good rotation with a little depth. Not to mention, the Yankees could easily acquire a marginal starting pitcher and throw money at it. It’s a nice luxury to have.

Should the Red Sox get Santana, their rotation would look like this:

1. Johan Santana, LHP – 220 IP – 3.00 ERA – 240 K – 6o BB
2. Josh Beckett, RHP – 190 IP – 3.40 ERA – 180 K – 50 BB
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP – 200 IP – 3.80 ERA – 160 K – 50 BB
4. Curt Schilling, RHP – 150 IP – 4.00 ERA – 100 K – 30 BB
5. Clay Buchholz, RHP – 180 IP – 3.50 ERA – 180 K – 50 BB

Having Santana is almost excessive since Tim Wakefield and Jon Lester would be bumped from the rotation in the process. The Red Sox may be paying too high a price if they end up wasting two above average starters for a season. With either Wakefield or Lester in the rotation, and the other waiting for Curt Schilling to miss time, lose money–he has a weight / time lost clause. Bad idea on Schilling’s part, but whatever keeps you motivated. Don’t forget, Beckett also has a history of arm trouble.

Tim Wakefield, RHP – 100 IP – 4.80 ERA – 80 K – 60 BB

John Lester, LHP – 120 IP – 4.20 ERA – 90 K – 40 BB

Should a trade go through, the Yankees wouldn’t lose much offensively in a Philip Hughes, Melky Cabrera and one of a couple of good prospects likes Alan Horne or Jose Tabata, but they would have to pick either Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon or Bobby Abreu to take a stab at center field or offer Mike Cameron a short deal and deal Matsui or Damon–who knows? I’d settle with Damon in center but it wouldn’t be pretty.

If the Red Sox pull the trigger, they’d lose Jacoby Ellsbury in center when their hope was to trade Coco Crisp instead. They’re lucky they won’t lose out at a defensively important position in a ballpark with a lot of run scoring. Ellsbury has won the love of Sox fans after tearing it up down the stretch and hitting well in the playoffs for a World Series team. He is an athletic speedy potential lead-off hitter with some possibility for power but not much.

Jacoby Ellsbury, L – .300/.360/.380 – 8 HR – 40 SB

Coco Crisp, S – .290/.340/.380 – 10 HR – 28 SB

Ellsbury has always had very healthy walk and strikeout rates, which bodes well for his potential to hit and improve his plate discipline. If he remains with the club, he will lead off for them a large portion of the time, combining with Kevin Youkilis or JD Drew to provide a potent 1-2 punch. I still like Coco Crisp. I might be alone, but I think he still can be a good hitter with all of Fenway park at his disposal. He can hit a lot of doubles and triples. Should Ellsbury be traded, he will hit 8th or 9th but hopefully not be as bad as he has with Boston offensively. Same goes for Julio Lugo.

Either team would give themselves a huge boost with the addition of Santana, but it would be costly. What would happen to the Twins if they pull the trigger with either the Yankees or the Red Sox? They’d still be a ways from contention but it would offer them a start. First the Yankees, then the Red Sox:

Minnesota Twins

1. Francisco Liriano, LHP – 120 IP – 3.50 ERA – 100 K – 30 BB
2. Boof Bonser, RHP – 180 IP – 4.00 ERA – 150 K – 60 BB
3. Philip Hughes, RHP – 180 IP – 3.60 ERA – 150 K – 50 BB
4. Scott Baker, RHP – 180 IP – 4.40 ERA – 120 K – 50 BB
5. Kevin Slowey, RHP – 180 IP – 4.00 ERA – 140 K – 40 BB

That’s not a bad rotation provided the young arms can hold up under increased pressure. Most notably, Francisco Liriano (remember him?), the lefty who took the AL by storm in 2006 but got hurt before he could regress. He missed all of 2007 with Tommy John surgery, but should pitch in 2008. It’s only a question of how much and how well.

Offensively, the Twins wouldn’t gain much trading with the Yankees as Melky Cabrera is hardly a star. He would fill in and play center field but he won’t dramatically improve an offense that doesn’t have much sock. Should the Twins trade with the Red Sox, they would add a presence at the top of the order with Ellsbury.

Minnesota Twins

1. CF – Jacoby Ellsbury, L – .290/.350/.390 – 6 HR – 40 SB
2. 2B – Alexi Casilla, S – .280/.360/.380 – 0 HR – 40 SB
3. C – Joe Mauer, L – .310/.400/.450 – 15 HR
4. 1B – Justin Morneau, L – .280/.350/.500 – 33 HR
5. 3B – Michael Cuddyer, R – .270/.340/.440 – 18 HR
6. RF – Delmon Young, R – .290/.330/.480 – 25 HR
7. DH – Jason Kubel, L – .280/.350/.440 – 16 HR
8. LF – Craig Monroe, R – .240/.310/.420 – 12 HR
9. SS – Adam Everett, R / Jed Lowrie, R – .240/.290/.330 – 8 HR — .260/.350/.450 – 10 HR

Here is the solution to the Nick Punto problem: don’t play him. Cuddyer can play third. He won’t be good but he won’t be Punto. I’m not sure Casilla will get the starting job off the bat nor am I sure he’d bat second. At worst, they can shift Mauer or maybe even Delmon Young to hit second. Everett will be a good addition either as a defensive player or a backup option. Lowrie would surely start the year in AAA. That’s not a terrible team but I’m not sure about Monroe or what they do if he fails.

I don’t want to project Delmon Young. There are still holes in his game but he is a future superstar. If pressed, I’m optimistically shooting for 25 bombs for the slugging right fielder. The sooner he learns to lay off the bad pitches, the sooner he becomes a superstar. The kid can hit.

Really, if the Yankees can get away with a package that includes Hughes,Cabrera and another player like Jose Tabata, they should jump on it to stay in the race as a major player. They may have to offer more as they have yet to come to an agreement with the Twins. If the Red Sox go for it, they’d be an easy favorite to win the World Series and force the Yankees to compete with the Tigers and Indians for the Wild Card. The Twins need to wait for the best package possible and might hold onto Santana until Spring training until they find the best fit.

Things would really get interesting in the American League if the Angels were to step in and surprise us with a deal.

Cabrera, Willis to Detroit for Six Prospects

Word is the Florida Marlins are sending Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for a six-player package, including super-prospect OF Cameron Maybin and LHS Andrew Miller along with four fringe prospects.

This seems like a pretty solid package for the Marlins. One can never be certain what other offers were on the table for the Marlins with the two LA clubs, but neither seemed willing to offer multiple, upper-echelon young players.

In Maybin the Marlins get the Tiger’s first round pick in 2005. He projects as an athletic, speed-power outfielder with a high ceiling–his knowledge of the strike zone still needs work. He will likely start the year in AAA and step in to center or right field for the Marlins by mid-season. Miller was the consensus top-talent in the 2006 draft, but fell to the Tigers at 6th overall due to his high asking price. Miller pitched out of the rotation for Detroit in 2007, but his command was never where it needed to be and he struggled at the big league level. Still, the 6′6″ lefty projects as a potential ace and should make major improvement this season, his second full season of pro-ball.

Of course, the Tiger’s acquisition of Cabrera is huge news as he will likely step in to replace Brandon Inge at third and bolster an already strong offensive team trying to dethrone the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. I don’t have to sit here and go over how good Cabrera is. His numbers speak for themselves and won’t be affected playing in spacious Comerica park as Dolphin stadium is also vast. If anything, Cabrera will instantly become a perennial MVP candidate, stepping into a strong contending team.

The Marlins also included Dontrelle Willis into package, shedding his salary, which will increase in his final year of arbitration. Willis was included, like Mike Lowell in the Boston deal, as a player coming off of a bad year. Willis, as a pitcher, is durable (200+ IP last three seasons) but relies too heavily on his deceptive delivery and not enough on pure stuff nor on command of his pitches but a move to a new team and a good ballpark may see him return to a league average lefty starter.

I see this as a major boost for the Tigers who now are the team to beat in the AL Central and a decent return for the Marlins, netting two potential super-stars. I have to wonder if they might have been able to get more and should have in a deal with the Dodgers. The “other four guys” included in the deal don’t project for much beyond a decent starting pitching prospect and a decent relief prospect as well as 27 year-old catcher.